mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 for now the precip does not get to places that have the elevation needed it seems. it will be interesting to see how it evolves -- i.e., if we can get a decent band of some sort to setup. prob would be better to come early rather than late but at least now it's pushing back the "oomph" till sunsetish. still it's a mild lead in.. would not set expectations too high. NAM is headed towards the Euro on this it seems, so I would expect more qpf, which can only help with cooling of the column we'll see considering the only "excitement" I have seem this winter was a coating the other night, I just may end up getting excited on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 the nam to some extent but the euro to more have a little "finger of precip up over this area displaced from the rest of the heavier stuff further south -- there is even a qpf min between dc balt area and south before more precip again well south. why is that you think? If you look at the temperature advection it is stronger to the south, I suspect the forcing to the north is due to the vorticity advection which still is weak. That's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If you look at the temperature advection it is stronger to the south, I suspect the forcing to the north is due to the vorticity advection which still is weak. That's my guess. I agree. There is also some q-vector forcing north / mid level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Did everyone on this board suddenly die overnight? The Euro shows the DC area with accum. snow late today. Nobody buying? The GFS is suddenly looking different with the midweek storm and the Euro actually shows snow in NVA and the WV panhandle. The GFS show snow around the 4 day period for the same area and the Euro shows snow at about a week. Don't know if any are correct, but that's what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Did everyone on this board suddenly die overnight? The Euro shows the DC area with accum. snow late today. Nobody buying? The GFS is suddenly looking different with the midweek storm and the Euro actually shows snow in NVA and the WV panhandle. The GFS show snow around the 4 day period for the same area and the Euro shows snow at about a week. Don't know if any are correct, but that's what they show. Sunday night and nothing to get too excited about. Plus the "event" today has its own thread. GFS has us with thicknesses below 540 from the frontal passage late Thurs/early Fri until the end of the run. Euro is chilly too. Having one ingredient is better than none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Did everyone on this board suddenly die overnight? The Euro shows the DC area with accum. snow late today. Nobody buying? The GFS is suddenly looking different with the midweek storm and the Euro actually shows snow in NVA and the WV panhandle. The GFS show snow around the 4 day period for the same area and the Euro shows snow at about a week. Don't know if any are correct, but that's what they show. Most sane people were sleeping lol. Even in such a bad winter - the only people who are generally up for the Euro are those who already have a reason to be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Did everyone on this board suddenly die overnight? The Euro shows the DC area with accum. snow late today. Nobody buying? The GFS is suddenly looking different with the midweek storm and the Euro actually shows snow in NVA and the WV panhandle. The GFS show snow around the 4 day period for the same area and the Euro shows snow at about a week. Don't know if any are correct, but that's what they show. ECMWF has a small 1" accumulation bulls eye basically right over my house at 72h, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 ECMWF has a small 1" accumulation bulls eye basically right over my house at 72h, lol. The shift in the model "thinking" for the mid week event is fascinating to me. Very quickly it seems they have gone from nothing to at the least interesting. And if you look at the 6z ens members, its all of them. The op isn't out there on its own. Its close, not there yet, but way better than it was about 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Most sane people were sleeping lol. Even in such a bad winter - the only people who are generally up for the Euro are those who already have a reason to be up. Eh, I don't think it has anything to do with people sleeping, since the last post was before 5PM. There were no replies in this thread, the main discussion thread, for over twelve hours. That pretty much never happens in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The shift in the model "thinking" for the mid week event is fascinating to me. Very quickly it seems they have gone from nothing to at the least interesting. And if you look at the 6z ens members, its all of them. The op isn't out there on its own. Its close, not there yet, but way better than it was about 24 hours ago. Need some better consistency IMO before getting interested. If the next couple runs stay the same then it will be worth it to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Need some better consistency IMO before getting interested. If the next couple runs stay the same then it will be worth it to track. Yeah, and consistency isn't exactly the buzzword around the models these days. But the changes from the 12z GFS to the 6z GFS are big. I don't have more than just fantasy hopes for it, but it is fun to watch the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The shift in the model "thinking" for the mid week event is fascinating to me. Very quickly it seems they have gone from nothing to at the least interesting. And if you look at the 6z ens members, its all of them. The op isn't out there on its own. Its close, not there yet, but way better than it was about 24 hours ago. Dude, people are shell shocked and timid because of the way this winter has gone. Nobody is going to bite on that, even if the Euro shows it. We've been Lucy'd too much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dude, people are shell shocked and timid because of the way this winter has gone. Nobody is going to bite on that, even if the Euro shows it. We've been Lucy'd too much this winter. You're right. But I'm gullible. I just want to see the next step in the evolution of this midweek storm. That thing has been on the models for a long time, and it is currently being modeled in a place that is a long, long way from where it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dude, people are shell shocked and timid because of the way this winter has gone. Nobody is going to bite on that, even if the Euro shows it. We've been Lucy'd too much this winter. Being "lucy'd" implies that there was a ball to being with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Being "lucy'd" implies that there was a ball to being with. so are you suggesting we've got no ballz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The shift in the model "thinking" for the mid week event is fascinating to me. Very quickly it seems they have gone from nothing to at the least interesting. And if you look at the 6z ens members, its all of them. The op isn't out there on its own. Its close, not there yet, but way better than it was about 24 hours ago. I see little chance of wintry wx for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What are u looking at? I see nothing but rain midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I see little chance of wintry wx for you. That's exactly how I see it. I just find the drastic changes interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That's exactly how I see it. I just find the drastic changes interesting. Changes from a 55F rain to a 45F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What are u looking at? I see nothing but rain midweek well, he didn't say which week, soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thurs system looks interesting @ 500 but temps are a no go at all levels. Nothing can really change that. Next week may hold some promise for a clipper type event or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I find this to be interesting. Not implying that I think a snowstorm is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I find this to be interesting. Not implying that I think a snowstorm is coming. I'm just hoping the mountains of WV can pull off some backside snow so at least I can see some snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Changes from a 55F rain to a 45F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WinterWxLuvr may be our region's CTBlizz, minus the high annoyance factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WinterWxLuvr may be our region's CTBlizz, minus the high annoyance factor. la la la lock it up..... oh, just ban me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 oh, just ban me if only..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 la la la lock it up..... oh, just ban me Yeah, that crap is highly bannable in this forum. So is using stupid initials for as we thought, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah, that crap is highly bannable in this forum. So is using stupid initials for as we thought, etc. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 winterwxluvr is always glass overflowing when it should be almost empty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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