CheesyPoofs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 it's sad that this has to be said every day in a forum supposedly populated by people who pay close attention to winter weather. The frustration this year is legitimate. The "winter is over" talk in the beginning of December may be laughable, but it's January 8th, we (the immediate metro, not west of the BR) have had no real measurable snow all winter, and things look real bleak for the forseeable future. I don't think anyone expects 09-10 every winter..there is a middle ground between the snowiest winter on record and the just horrid pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 yeah winter has screwed with me for 64 years, why change now?? I,m with you So be it. I can't change it. DT write up is interesting. If he is right, then the pattern change doesn't really affect us below 40n so it wont matter. That will be interesting to see if it happens. Realistically I,m note expecting much this winter. Just the way it is. I will soon be 48 years old and our locations are not that far apart. I disagree with you that winters have screwed us over. Even the winter of 1982-83 was a horrible winter but i would take February 10/11th 1983 in a heart beat again. What about 1995/96? How about PD11 in February 2003? How about just two years ago? We live in an area where good winters are hard to come by but to say winter has screwed you over for 64 years is a little like saying an historic pattern change is coming, both are an over exaggeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro sloppy snow .13 of qpf with temps near 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro sloppy snow .13 of qpf with temps near 32 Monday afternoon?....I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Monday afternoon?....I doubt it surface is pretty mild.. as it has been. white rain at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro sloppy snow .13 of qpf with temps near 32 Euro is the most optimistic and I think temps are still upper 30s with very light precip.....if the precip can make it in here early enough, maybe some sleet/mangled flakes to start?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 roadtrip to philly or long island.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro is the most optimistic and I think temps are still upper 30s with very light precip.....if the precip can make it in here early enough, maybe some sleet/mangled flakes to start?..... It's too bad that the precip is light because the soundings indicate that the dewpoints/wet bulbs are below 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wunderweenie maps give balt like 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wunderweenie maps give balt like 3" Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wunderweenie maps give balt like 3" Anyone remember when Monday was supposed to be Mostly Sunny? 12z UKMET, GGEM and ECMWF are still north of the GFS and NAM. I wonder what ends up more correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Anyone remember when Monday was supposed to be Mostly Sunny? 12z UKMET, GGEM and ECMWF are still north of the GFS and NAM. I wonder what ends up more correct? NWS just introduced a chance of precip today but we (CWG) have had it since at least Friday. For precip to come north is not really unheard of or that major of a surprise. I still don't think it ever really looked "good" for snow IMBY tho. I could see some sloppy flakes I suppose but seriously doubt anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 NWS just introduced a chance of precip today but we (CWG) have had it since at least Friday. For precip to come north is not really unheard of or that major of a surprise. I still don't think it ever really looked "good" for snow IMBY tho. I could see some sloppy flakes I suppose but seriously doubt anything more than that. What is your opinion on LWX? Do you find them to be a good WFO, adequate, poor? Agreed that this was never a good threat but I also didn't think it should be overlooked either to get a little light snow in the area. If a steady area can develop somewhere, they would be able to wet bulb down to allow for some accumulating snow. Pavements probably have no chance, regardless. But a very light type of precip tomorrow will likely yield just rain, especially in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Do you guys think Baltimore North and West has a chance? Temperatures stay below 32 according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 What is your opinion on LWX? Do you find them to be a good WFO, adequate, poor? Agreed that this was never a good threat but I also didn't think it should be overlooked either to get a little light snow in the area. If a steady area can develop somewhere, they would be able to wet bulb down to allow for some accumulating snow. Pavements probably have no chance, regardless. But a very light type of precip tomorrow will likely yield just rain, especially in the cities. I guess they're OK--certainly not spectacular. I think a lot of forecasters in this area are slow to pick up on things. Maybe it's just that it can be a difficult region to forecast for when it's not hot and sunny. I agree it's not worth totally not watching . I guess it will be interesting to see how much temps rise during the day assuming the precip holds off till afternoon+ which seems to be the trend. MOS has come down a good bit.. was u40s to near 50 for a while now mid-40s or so for highs. If we can end up closer to near 40/low 40s would seem to put it more in play for at least a few pages of thread discussion if even no impact/accum many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I guess they're OK--certainly not spectacular. I think a lot of forecasters in this area are slow to pick up on things. Maybe it's just that it can be a difficult region to forecast for when it's not hot and sunny. I agree it's not worth totally not watching . I guess it will be interesting to see how much temps rise during the day assuming the precip holds off till afternoon+ which seems to be the trend. MOS has come down a good bit.. was u40s to near 50 for a while now mid-40s or so for highs. If we can end up closer to near 40/low 40s would seem to put it more in play for at least a few pages of thread discussion if even no impact/accum many places. What a kick in the you know where it is going to be if you've got an ob of -RN and 39/26 or something and your h85 temp is -1c. The ECMWF wants to produce a steady enough area to wet bulb somewhere over the northern Mid Atlantic tomorrow, but who knows where that will be and if it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 People are excited for a 5 minute flurry? The SREF has nice pretty colors way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wunderweenie maps give balt like 3" JB says we are getting 1-2" so you should probably buy your rubbers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 People are excited for a 5 minute flurry? The SREF has nice pretty colors way south. Latest SREF (15z) creeping north-----may not be much, but it's not over yet. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Latest SREF (15z) creeping north-----may not be much, but it's not over yet. MDstorm so did the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 so did the 18Z NAM Hr 72 has what looks like a1060 high in Greenland...is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 nam looks like predominantly a chilly rain--maybe some non accum snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hr 72 has what looks like a1060 high in Greenland...is that possible? I think 1085mb is the high pressure record on Earth so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think 1085mb is the high pressure record on Earth so yes. Thanks...too bad we can't lock that in and move it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Thanks...too bad we can't lock that in and move it south Ditto on that. Can you imagine a 1085 high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 nam looks like predominantly a chilly rain--maybe some non accum snow as well elevated locations, again, have the best shot I could see melting wet flakes and 4 miles away where the elevation is 300-350' higher (Elkridge) getting an inch or 2 of snow been there, done that far too many times before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ditto on that. Can you imagine a 1085 high lol. Imagine that and a cold air source for that cut off low...the funny thing is if some said "1060 high in Greenland and cutoff low to our south" In Jan I'd be excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 nam looks like predominantly a chilly rain--maybe some non accum snow as well I am waiting for the bufkits but yeah that looks like a cold rain / occasionally mixing with snow. The freezing level at DCA gets down to about 1500 ft at its coldest tomorrow ~ 21z. A good steady shot would be able to transition it to all snow during that period. Before it and after it look too warm in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 elevated locations, again, have the best shot I could see melting wet flakes and 4 miles away where the elevation is 300-350' higher (Elkridge) getting an inch or 2 of snow been there, done that far too many times before for now the precip does not get to places that have the elevation needed it seems. it will be interesting to see how it evolves -- i.e., if we can get a decent band of some sort to setup. prob would be better to come early rather than late but at least now it's pushing back the "oomph" till sunsetish. still it's a mild lead in.. would not set expectations too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I am waiting for the bufkits but yeah that looks like a cold rain / occasionally mixing with snow. The freezing level at DCA gets down to about 1500 ft at its coldest tomorrow ~ 21z. A good steady shot would be able to transition it to all snow during that period. Before it and after it look too warm in the low levels. the nam to some extent but the euro to more have a little "finger of precip up over this area displaced from the rest of the heavier stuff further south -- there is even a qpf min between dc balt area and south before more precip again well south. why is that you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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