ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The biggest issue for DC I think would be the placement of the ridge. Its pretty far east even on the Euro. That was one of the problems with Boxing Day...the ridge axis being that far east requires some extremely anomalous deepening of the trough and closing it off. Unlike Boxing though, if the ridge axis sneaks too far west, then it could cut...since we do not have the monster block in place like last year. So there is a fine line to walk. So basically unless it threads the needle it will either be OTS or we will have a cutter and we will have a crapload of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So basically unless it threads the needle it will either be OTS or we will have a cutter and we will have a crapload of rain. Its basically the same for all of us up and down the Eastern Seaboard... till we get a block, we will need to TTN (thread the needle) to get anything substantial. Though of course our northern neighbors may have better luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Its basically the same for all of us up and down the Eastern Seaboard... till we get a block, we will need to TTN (thread the needle) to get anything substantial. Though of course our northern neighbors may have better luck They always do, oh what i would do to live in Worcester in the winter. In their crappiest winters they still get 50 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So basically unless it threads the needle it will either be OTS or we will have a cutter and we will have a crapload of rain. Yes...but given where model guidance is right now and how the ensembles look, a cutter is less likely than it probably was before that...once you get a ridge axis past the Rockies, the worry becomes whiffing wide right vs a cutter. But given the timeframe we are at, either is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 They always do, oh what i would do to live in Worcester in the winter. In their crappiest winters they still get 50 inches. The ORH average is like 65" lol...they're not that good. We get like 30-40" in our bad winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yes...but given where model guidance is right now and how the ensembles look, a cutter is less likely than it probably was before that...once you get a ridge axis past the Rockies, the worry becomes whiffing wide right vs a cutter. But given the timeframe we are at, either is still possible. Thank you for the info. If we do not get snow from this storm i may have to come and visit you to see snow, because i cannot take this much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thank you for the info. If we do not get snow from this storm i may have to come and visit you to see snow, because i cannot take this much longer. He has no snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yes...but given where model guidance is right now and how the ensembles look, a cutter is less likely than it probably was before that...once you get a ridge axis past the Rockies, the worry becomes whiffing wide right vs a cutter. But given the timeframe we are at, either is still possible. Thanks for this tidbit... i was wondering about this earlier in the thread about where we wanted the ridge to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The ORH average is like 65" lol...they're not that good. We get like 30-40" in our bad winters. I was just looking at your last 5 or 6 winters i did not go far back. But your crappy winters are like our very good winters. Even though i live N&W of town my average is still only 27 inches per winter, at BWI it is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 What a kick in the pants it would be - after having suffered through nearly 2 months of warmth - to watch VA Beach and NC get wallopped by a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 He has no snow either. Yes but im sure he gets some from next weeks storm even if we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I was just looking at your last 5 or 6 winters i did not go far back. But your crappy winters are like our very good winters. Even though i live N&W of town my average is still only 27 inches per winter, at BWI it is lower. move. Yes but im sure he gets some from next weeks storm even if we get screwed. I hope so. I have 9.2" on the year here 10 miles away from ORH and its all from October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 cfs cooled down january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GGEM B&W maps are out it looks like.... hour 144 has a 999 low off the coast it looks like. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The ORH average is like 65" lol...they're not that good. We get like 30-40" in our bad winters. Their average is 69.3"...its been a good run recently. Hasn't been a sub-40" winter since 1999-2000. But this is off topic for this subforum. We are all getting completely screwed right now. Sharing in the misery. This storm offers hope for all the regions as nobody has been getting hit at all in the east. I think the fact so much attention is getting paid to a storm 7 days speaks just how bad its been for the whole east coast. The ridge idea I am fairly confident on...with the EC ensembles having it, it was only a matter of time for the GFS to start caving, but for the actual snow possibility, we need a lot more than just the larger ridge...we need some really good energy diving down and the ridge itself needs to be really amped, not just big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS shows no snow through 384 hrs. I guess if musicians call albums that suck "Concept Albums" us weather weenies can call model runs that suck "Concept Runs" and this is a definite Concept Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Something went down on the GGEM, can't tell if its a Miller B or something else -- http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif 999mb L just SE of NYC at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 move. I would never leave my Ravens, even if it meant having to suffer through 50 and rainy all winter. I have never missed a game in 16 seasons, even for funerals or weddings. I just do not miss. Thank g-d my first born came out the friday night before a game not on Sunday, or i would have missed that as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Something went down on the GGEM, can't tell if its a Miller B or something else -- http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif 999mb L just SE of NYC at 144 No, its probably a wave from the south that does that given the amplitude of the trough/ridge combo. Its not quite as gung ho as the Euro so it would probably not be a big event on the GGEM, but it might be an anafrontal light to moderate snow event for at least part of the region in this subforum if not most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No, its probably a wave from the south that does that given the amplitude of the trough/ridge combo. Its not quite as gung ho as the Euro so it would probably not be a big event on the GGEM, but it might be an anafrontal light to moderate snow event for at least part of the region in this subforum if not most. I wish you moved here, you are a lot more optimistic than Wes. I still love you Wes, the truth hurts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 FWIW, and GGEM now has whatever this is on a Monday afternoon GGEM at 132 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_132.jpg 144 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg 10-15mm... so a 3-5 incher deal IF it were cold enough for all snow... which is anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0Z UKIE doesn't look good at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I wish you moved here, you are a lot more optimistic than Wes. I still love you Wes, the truth hurts though. I don't think I usually disagree with anything Wes says. He's one of the best mets on this site. I think I just naturally try to point out the keys to getting the snow event to work out, so it might seem like I'm more optimistic. But I already said there were plenty of problems with this event as it stands right now too. We'll see how it evolves over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 FWIW, and GGEM now has whatever this is on a Monday afternoon GGEM at 132 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_132.jpg 144 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg 10-15mm... so a 3-5 incher deal IF it were cold enough for all snow... which is anyone's guess It would def start as rain on those maps, but as I mentioned when you posted the 144 map, its an anafrontal type wave, so it would probably flip over...the interior hills obviously being the best spot in that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like the GFS is starting to cave. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 euro is out to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The 00z CMC still has a storm, though not as deep/amplified.....its a rain changing to snow type thing...we all know how those have worked out around here, but maybe a bit better set-up with this one....Im still very skeptical about this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 euro to 108....ridge is pumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 at the risk of being a big weenie, the ridge/trough axis looks even better this run than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 hour 132, front is making its way through the region w/ some light rain showers...perhaps snow well west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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