Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It took me 30 minutes to click next from 132 hour to 204. 30 minutes to realize it wasnt going to snow when it should of taken 3. The only thing that looks like it will happen is this EPO ridge though it will probably be too far west. But at least maybe we'll get some real air masses into the conus. At this point I want 40 n to get snow so at least we have the chance of backing into something or something fluky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wow...the snowstorm after the rainstorm is actually a rainstorm now. Im ready to punt myself, HM and this winter Letting the crappy GFS screw with you? Shame on you, Ji. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's just not going to snow this year...moisture and cold will never meet up and February is the worst month usually for Nina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The only thing to track at this point is enso for next year. I can't believe the nao has been raging positive every day this winter. Our best chance was dec 7 storm and I didnt even see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro is way north with Monday's event. Still very marginal temps. All rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro is way north with Monday's event. Still very marginal temps. All rain here? When in doubt, default to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro is way north with Monday's event. Still very marginal temps. All rain here? Whatever it is, it is very light in terms of precip amount. It looks to me to be light rain/snow mix. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 February is the worst month usually for Ninas. Not this year though. We need to get through another 3 weeks of crap, then the worm turns big time. Several accumulating snows in the timeframe between the end of January and the middle of March, with a more classic La Nina gradient for the second 1/2 of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 FWIW, Euro has a pretty robust Iceland Block that moves east....I don't know how good that is for us, especially East of Iceland, but maybe it slows the flow down?...the EPO ridge is further west than it has been and that makes sense with a Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 00Z GFS and the Euro op @ 500mb seem to be in fairly good agreement up to 180hr on the major features. The only major difference I see between them is the Euro has strong ridging from SE of Greenland towards the pole whereas the GFS has the ridging in Europe going up to the pole. After truncation though they start to diverge fairly rapidly up to day 10. The look between today's 00Z runs of these models also have significant differences then their 00Z runs from yesterday. With all the differences showing up on the models in the last several days for the long range it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The time period shortly after the cut off goes by still has my interest especially for 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 they call it realistic December 5, 2012...write it down. Buy snow blowers now when they are on clearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know. Everyone's model of choice seems to look pretty good to me. NAO tanking on it. Let's ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 06z GFS is chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 06z GFS is chilly. As is the 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 what was once a coastal is now a cutter. I find this very humorous. I guess this is the rainstorm that Ji commented on previously. Nothing new. Guess we just have to wait, what 3 more weeks before we see anything different??. Oh well the beat goes on and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 what was once a coastal is now a cutter. I find this very humorous. I guess this is the rainstorm that Ji commented on previously. Nothing new. Guess we just have to wait, what 3 more weeks before we see anything different??. Oh well the beat goes on and on and on. I,m sure that winter is only trying to screw with you. I,m rolling with the punches this winter. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I,m sure that winter is only trying to screw with you. I,m rolling with the punches this winter. It is what it is. yeah winter has screwed with me for 64 years, why change now?? I,m with you So be it. I can't change it. DT write up is interesting. If he is right, then the pattern change doesn't really affect us below 40n so it wont matter. That will be interesting to see if it happens. Realistically I,m note expecting much this winter. Just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hahaha cold until the next screw job at 267! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 what was once a coastal is now a cutter. I find this very humorous. I guess this is the rainstorm that Ji commented on previously. Nothing new. Guess we just have to wait, what 3 more weeks before we see anything different??. Oh well the beat goes on and on and on. There is still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 yeah winter has screwed with me for 64 years, why change now?? I,m with you So be it. I can't change it. DT write up is interesting. If he is right, then the pattern change doesn't really affect us below 40n so it wont matter. That will be interesting to see if it happens. Realistically I,m note expecting much this winter. Just the way it is. So 09/10 wasn't good? Or 02/03? Or 95/96? any of those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 yeah winter has screwed with me for 64 years, why change now?? I,m with you So be it. I can't change it. DT write up is interesting. If he is right, then the pattern change doesn't really affect us below 40n so it wont matter. That will be interesting to see if it happens. Realistically I,m note expecting much this winter. Just the way it is. "historic" pattern change strikes me as hyperbole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 "historic" pattern change strikes me as hyperbole Perhaps. I think he is just trying to convey how "rare" the projected pattern is. "Historic" is probably over the top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 There is still time... did you read DT writeup?? If not you might do so. If he is right, we may not be in the cold for the change. I sure dont know what is coming. Just reading all the assurrances that winter is coming. You maybe right. I just laugh at all the ways the models keep changing. Euro shows one thing, the gfs another. Guess its the way the models are developed. Only thing I know is that my heating bill is lower than normal. I,m just not expecting a lot this winter. To top it off, the experts are saying a third winter with a nina. Another year of constant frustration?? Hmmm So after one very great winter, we will have at least two winters way below average. maybe a third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 did you read DT writeup?? If not you might do so. If he is right, we may not be in the cold for the change. I sure dont know what is coming. Just reading all the assurrances that winter is coming. You maybe right. I just laugh at all the ways the models keep changing. Euro shows one thing, the gfs another. Guess its the way the models are developed. Only thing I know is that my heating bill is lower than normal. I,m just not expecting a lot this winter. To top it off, the experts are saying a third winter with a nina. Another year of constant frustration?? Hmmm So after one very great winter, we will have at least two winters way below average. maybe a third. I did read it. He might be just as wrong as anybody else. Also - predictions for a third nina year may be wrong as well. I think you are premature in this kind of talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 did you read DT writeup?? If not you might do so. If he is right, we may not be in the cold for the change. I sure dont know what is coming. Just reading all the assurrances that winter is coming. You maybe right. I just laugh at all the ways the models keep changing. Euro shows one thing, the gfs another. Guess its the way the models are developed. Only thing I know is that my heating bill is lower than normal. I,m just not expecting a lot this winter. To top it off, the experts are saying a third winter with a nina. Another year of constant frustration?? Hmmm So after one very great winter, we will have at least two winters way below average. maybe a third. I think a lot of people forget that the winter of 09/10 was a fluke winter for us. We do not usually get snow like that in December, let alone three big storms in a winter alone. I think a lot of people are spoiled by it and expect winters like that each year. So technically we had an overperforming winter followed by something closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 yeah winter has screwed with me for 64 years, why change now?? I,m with you So be it. I can't change it. DT write up is interesting. If he is right, then the pattern change doesn't really affect us below 40n so it wont matter. That will be interesting to see if it happens. Realistically I,m note expecting much this winter. Just the way it is. Not sure how in 64 years you can't remember some of the good ones. There have been enough over my 40 to make me happy and realize that each winter will NOT be like 09-10. I think you need to take a break if it is affecting you this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 what was once a coastal is now a cutter. I find this very humorous. I guess this is the rainstorm that Ji commented on previously. Nothing new. Guess we just have to wait, what 3 more weeks before we see anything different??. Oh well the beat goes on and on and on. The ex-coastal now cutter is modeled to be a pretty darn strong storm. Especially after it heads into Canada. If I'm reading the 12z correctly, it's the cutter that helps build an ideal ridge over Greenland. And it holds on through the end of the run. Big storms have a way of shaking things up a bit. (I'm still wondering if Irene is at least a little bit responsible for the prolonged +ao/nao we're experiencing. It started right after Irene). Of course, I really doubt the -nao on the gfs but IF we do get a strong cutter, maybe it will help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The ex-coastal now cutter is modeled to be a pretty darn strong storm. Especially after it heads into Canada. If I'm reading the 12z correctly, it's the cutter that helps build an ideal ridge over Greenland. And it holds on through the end of the run. Big storms have a way of shaking things up a bit. (I'm still wondering if Irene is at least a little bit responsible for the prolonged +ao/nao we're experiencing. It started right after Irene). Of course, I really doubt the -nao on the gfs but IF we do get a strong cutter, maybe it will help us. This. Strong storm systems even if they are not good for us can often flip the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL Frozen water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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