mappy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 lol Doesn't make me anymore right or wrong. But I do think there are things to monitor finally starting with Monday. I only gave a heads up about Monday yesterday because I didn't trust the suppressed solutions and since the air was marginally cold enough it could produce -SN. Keep up the great work, HM. I'm just messing with ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think the issue with the Jan 13-14 setup has more to do with the southern stream low that the GFS wants to bring out and phase while the ECMWF wants to leave in the E PAC (exact opposite of their 12z runs yesterday). The temporary heights lowered in E Canada will actually simulate a 50-50 low that is moving north as a s/w is amplifying. The cold air issue is more for Monday than the next one. I didn't check closely yet (outside of 2m and h85), but is the 12z ECMWF snow in Maryland on Mon AM? I think the euro is interesting beyond day 10 and is the best look that it has had this winter though I don't expect it to look the same on the next run. More cold shots give us more potential though we still are going to need really exact timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Just unreal.... 66 degrees and actually very pleasant out. Snow seems so impossible at this point... ughh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hey HM you're the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Keep up the great work, HM. I'm just messing with ya I know. Thanks... I think the euro is interesting beyond day 10 and is the best look that it has had this winter though I don't expect it to look the same on the next run. More cold shots give us more potential though we still are going to need really exact timing. Agreed 100%. By the way, I enjoyed the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I know. Thanks... Agreed 100%. By the way, I enjoyed the article. Thanks, Most ot the GFS ensembles are more in its corner than the euros concerning the 168hr threat. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks, Most ot the GFS ensembles are more in its corner than the euros concerning the 168hr threat. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles do. Agreed about the GFS ensembles. While there were a handful of members who backed the southern low west like the euro, most agreed with the op. The 12z extended UKMET also brings it out but more sluggishly and dampened: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks to all here this has been very understandable and informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 My buzz wore off yesterday but is coming back today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks to all here this has been very understandable and informative. Yes, yes, all very fascinating. So when is it going to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS in a week. Also, the EC showing a fast flip to a neg NAO on day 7. Haven't I read on here that that sometimes is a period of potential snow storms, just as the flip is taking place. Or is this just wishful remembering on my part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS in a week. Also, the EC showing a fast flip to a neg NAO on day 7. Haven't I read on here that that sometimes is a period of potential snow storms, just as the flip is taking place. Or is this just wishful remembering on my part? Re the GFS. I think maybe we can squeeze out a smaller event. The setup is not the best. Still PAC jet and air mass with nothing to slow the flow except some quasi 50-50 low so the features have to interact properly. We still need timing. In no way am I punting the potential to get something but I am more interested in the period after we get the -EPO ridge and we get real air entering the Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS in a week. Also, the EC showing a fast flip to a neg NAO on day 7. Haven't I read on here that that sometimes is a period of potential snow storms, just as the flip is taking place. Or is this just wishful remembering on my part? I think it is usually when the NAO is rebounding not tanking. But I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 For the first time this winter,the GFS is finally showing a true -NAO block at 336-384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 For the first time this winter,the GFS is finally showing a true -NAO block at 336-384 hours maybe by May or June we might actually see it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 For the first time this winter,the GFS is finally showing a true -NAO block at 336-384 hours It is but the ensemble mean suggests that the operational is an outlier. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It is but the ensemble mean suggests that the operational is an outlier. I guess time will tell. LOL Kill joy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It is but the ensemble mean suggests that the operational is an outlier. I guess time will tell. Yeah, but .... its ensemble mean does look cold and slightly wet for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 For the first time this winter,the GFS is finally showing a true -NAO block at 336-384 hours We won't need one next weekend (slightly after if the ECMWF is right) if the PV is properly in place to mimic what a 50-50 low / -NAO would do. The southern s/w coming out is the first big obstacle. If that comes eastward, then suddenly we aren't dealing with the ECMWF solution / Miller B type system Jan 13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 He winterwxlover,how much is ""slightly.wet""??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We won't need one next weekend (slightly after if the ECMWF is right) if the PV is properly in place to mimic what a 50-50 low / -NAO would do. The southern s/w coming out is the first big obstacle. If that comes eastward, then suddenly we aren't dealing with the ECMWF solution / Miller B type system Jan 13-14. what are the chances?....as Wes mentioned there is no blocking, so the vortex is flying northeast.....It's cool that we have a chance at something....I'm just hoping for a minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 what are the chances?....as Wes mentioned there is no blocking, so the vortex is flying northeast.....It's cool that we have a chance at something....I'm just hoping for a minor event Without the "real setup" (classic -NAO pattern) I would make the chances lower than normal. First of all, I am not even sure the southern s/w kicks out yet or how long it will take. But yes, the PV will be quickly moving; however, the southward displacement is all thanks to the PNA ridge and the southern low it phases with. If either of these things go wrong and the PV isn't displaced...then the game is over. So yeah this has a lot of things that have to fall in line, but this is better than the situation we were in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 He winterwxlover,how much is ""slightly.wet""??? Slight. 0.1 to 0.25 range. But I don't think it's too common to see "really wet" on the ensemble mean from a week out. Some of our more knowledgeable folks might weigh in on the validity of that last statement. That's the good news. The bad, to me, would be that the wet members are warmer and "wester" and the cold members are drier. The mix of the two is what is making the mean look halfway decent. The other bit of good news, IMO, is that quite a few show a system coming out of the southeast, and I think that's always worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re the GFS. I think maybe we can squeeze out a smaller event. The setup is not the best. Still PAC jet and air mass with nothing to slow the flow except some quasi 50-50 low so the features have to interact properly. We still need timing. In no way am I punting the potential to get something but I am more interested in the period after we get the -EPO ridge and we get real air entering the Conus. Yeah, not really thinking anything big, or, really much of anything. I hope you're right about the following time frame. The EC look at 12z was really starting to pick up at about day 7. This warmth hasn't really bothered me, until this time. Tuesday, with good cold and a little snow, some interest in the medium range in the models, got me thinking that we had climbed a step or two, but these two warm days have left me a little down about things. It is still fairly early though, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 A lot better pattern on the GFS. Before there was a 1 in 10 billion chance of DC getting a 4+ storm, now it's up by a factor of 10 to 1 in 1 billion. I'm starting to feel the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think this HM storm might be the real deal. HM bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I mean, as modeled on the latest GFS..it looks diffuse and warm sure..but it's definitely something to watch and not punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 looks almost as awesome as the early week event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 wow...the snowstorm after the rainstorm is actually a rainstorm now. Im ready to punt myself, HM and this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It took me 30 minutes to click next from 132 hour to 204. 30 minutes to realize it wasnt going to snow when it should of taken 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.