WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If there's anything positive, for me, I'd have to say it's the EC ens. showing a slight negative NAO for days 8-10 (looks east to me) and some ridging over Alaska. At least it's a different look that what we've seen for a long time. Probably change on the next run (so much for thinking positive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If there's anything positive, for me, I'd have to say it's the EC ens. showing a slight negative NAO for days 8-10 (looks east to me) and some ridging over Alaska. At least it's a different look that what we've seen for a long time. Probably change on the next run (so much for thinking positive). New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible disagree somewhat....it shows a block forming in the gulf of Alaska before the model loses resolution...It is certainly possible that the -EPO block/ridge if it forms will retrograde toward the Aleutians per Nina climo, but I don't really care what it shows after day 8.....I don't think it has much skill.....I like that it is showing that feature....The Atlantic still looks pretty bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 disagree somewhat....it shows a block forming in the gulf of Alaska before the model loses resolution...It is certainly possible that the -EPO block/ridge if it forms will retrograde toward the Aleutians per Nina climo, but I don't really care what it shows after day 8.....I don't think it has much skill.....I like that it is showing that feature....The Atlantic still looks pretty bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro gets a little bit of moisture up here on Monday afternoon, but it isn't much and temps are probably in the upper 30s....so could be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro gets a little bit of moisture up here on Monday afternoon, but it isn't much and temps are probably in the upper 30s....so could be rain some precip lags behind the front Thursday night....probably not happening or a big deal but maybe worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible GFS Ensembles keep it rather cold after the rain event next week. In fact the rest of the run following the rain event is quite cold. Unfortunately, the atlantic is still crappy (ensembles suggest a north atlantic ridge, but not real block) and there is still the pesky vortex over Baffin Island region. The pacific is improved and there is definitely a colder source region. The result looks relatively cold and dry after next week's rain. I still think that we will need to wait until the latter part of January into February to see significant snow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 some precip lags behind the front Thursday night....probably not happening or a big deal but maybe worth watching -EPO forming by end of the run....and huge arctic dump into the upper midwest...this is at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Seriously? Because the GFS is perfectly accurate a week out right? Get real! I know it's tiring waiting for something exciting but just because the GFS doesn't show what you want doesn't mean "it's over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We seem to get cold shots, yet no snow but when it warms up a bit we get rain. I dont know what has to change this, but after reading the medium range discussion in the main forum it doesnt appear to be anytime soon. There isnt any agreemrnt that thr pattern is even going to change. Until that happens I think our snow chances are very low. Heck some are forecasting a 3rd year of la nina. Seems like we had better get used to very little snow for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You know the patten is bad or shows no signs of changing when the red taggers have not posted going on 14 hours now. sorry off topic, back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seriously? Because the GFS is perfectly accurate a week out right? Get real! I know it's tiring waiting for something exciting but just because the GFS doesn't show what you want doesn't mean "it's over" You're right. Sorry, I was a bit pessimistic and dramtic last night. I was looking just at the Atlantic side for some blocking and didn't see it so I threw my hands in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS ensembles continue to have a better look for us than the Op runs. Op runs (last few) have really turned ugly for us in the longer range. Ensembles keep the evolution of the pattern that we've been talking about for the last several days/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Disappointingly, looks a lot more like the 12Z Euro... Now which is the better model...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How can the ensembles look so different from the op run?? I realize there is smoothing done onthe ensembles. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Look, when you think positive good things will usually out weigh the bad. Not just what you see in front of you is always fact either. Weather changes constantly which makes it even more interesting for me. Yes the models say one thing one day and say another the next day. I still believe in the pattern change coming near late January. I believe we had a flip in 09 similar to this. I have seen a post, someone maybe writing off next winter too. I know that you have a 60% El Nino after back to back La Nina and a 40% for a 3rd straight La Nina. Way to early to think about next year yet but I wrote about next winter in another forum somewhere. Solar cycle might play a big part in next years winter. The solar activity is suppose to plumit in 2013 with cycle 24. Volcanic activity might play a part as well for next year. Thats just what I know about next year and sorry if the upsets anyone about writing a little about next year. But coming off back to back La Ninas can be great at times. Anyways I still have faith in this winter and I said it before, " be careful what you wish for" and I mean this for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You know the patten is bad or shows no signs of changing when the red taggers have not posted going on 14 hours now. sorry off topic, back to lurking. Or it could be because we're tired of reading endless f**king complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or it could be because we're tired of reading endless f**king complaints. OR it could be we were asleep for 8 hours and had other things to attend to besides posting here. I don't see much new to post about in terms of the pattern. The -pNA looks like despite Cahir's connection, the coldest air may stay to our west especially with the nao remaining positive. Even if the Nao were to go neutral that's still not a good combo in a la nina year with the PNA ridge retrograding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 OR it could be we were asleep for 8 hours and had other things to attend to besides posting here. I don't see much new to post about in terms of the pattern. The -pNA looks like despite Cahir's connection, the coldest air may stay to our west especially with the nao remaining positive. Even if the Nao were to go neutral that's still not a good combo in a la nina year with the PNA ridge retrograding. I slept for 12 hours And agreed that there really isn't anything new to post about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How can the ensembles look so different from the op run?? I realize there is smoothing done onthe ensembles. Thanks It's called Chaos. On the right hand side of the plot below you'll see lots of lines. They represent various contour lines from the 500mb forecast from the ensemble members. The white lines show the control, essentially the operation but I think it is run with the same resolution as the ensemble members (DTK can correct me if I'm wrong). all the ensemble members are run with slightly different initial conditions than their counterparts or the operational. Those differences in the initial conditions grow during the run. BY 240 hours most of the members have a different idea of the evolution of the pattern than the control (operational). The ensemble mean (the average of all the members) therefore looks much different than the control because averaging smooths features but also because the operational is an outlier. It still could be correct but usually the ensemble mean will beat it at those time ranges. Hope I've semi answered your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Excellent anzwer and thank you. Im fsmiliar with the spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How can the ensembles look so different from the op run?? I realize there is smoothing done onthe ensembles. Thanks Because they are all running slightly different scenarios. It isn't the exact same model run over and over again. EDIT: Great answer above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks kmlwx, i knew they were run eith slightly different initial beginning conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks kmlwx, i knew they were run eith slightly different initial beginning conditions They have kicked out some interesting solutions in the past that do not match the OP at all - certainly can be cause for some head scratching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hopefully it never snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hopefully it never snows Your reverse psychology has been pretty much fail this winter. You may want to get back on the weenie train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hopefully it never snows Can we vote to ban an admin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hour 168 looks promising on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 12 GFS wants to give much of VA a bout of extended light precip next Friday night into Saturday. Can anyone tell if surface temps look good for Richmond, Fredericksburg, C'ville, Fairfax, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's called Chaos. On the right hand side of the plot below you'll see lots of lines. They represent various contour lines from the 500mb forecast from the ensemble members. The white lines show the control, essentially the operation but I think it is run with the same resolution as the ensemble members (DTK can correct me if I'm wrong). all the ensemble members are run with slightly different initial conditions than their counterparts or the operational. Those differences in the initial conditions grow during the run. BY 240 hours most of the members have a different idea of the evolution of the pattern than the control (operational). The ensemble mean (the average of all the members) therefore looks much different than the control because averaging smooths features but also because the operational is an outlier. It still could be correct but usually the ensemble mean will beat it at those time ranges. Hope I've semi answered your question. It sure looks like pretty good agreement with the spaghetti plots over the eastern parts of canada and the us. Seems to me that those things are usually all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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