brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Keep the peace? I,m not sure. It is worth noting that the Euro was first out with the solution of possible snow this weekend. I believe that it originally had it for Sunday afternoon. With the GFS and NAM totally backing away from the potential this weekend, I couldn't help but be reminded of the late Jan storm two years ago. On Thursday, both models completely let the wind out our sails only to trend right back to us the next day. I still want to watch the models through at least Sat. night before giving in. I realize that the storm two years ago was different in that we had a ton of cold, but it was a slider as well, modeled to run right along the tn/ky and va/nc borders but then gave precip much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow, has anyone ever seen the SREFS change so dramatically from one run to the next? Just look at the precip at 75 hour on the 9z and compare to the 69 hour on the 15z. With the GFS and NAM dropping this thing so fast, makes me wonder what happened to cause such a jump. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Questions are always good but we should always make sure that they are good questions with logical backing. Ok back to discussion. These. I can forgive an occasional "weenie-eque" question, but asking for deterministic answers in the medium range and long range is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. when you add this into the SNOstorm in late Jan we're really about to cash in. could be one of the greatest stretches of winter here ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! Ok! I will be patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 but some of you are always cup 3/4 full even if it should be 1/4. HA! You are on the record for saying the cup isn't empty. The cup is actually full.....1/4 actual potential......1/4 weenie hope......1/4 unfounded optimism.......1/4 despair and weenie suicidal thoughts... The NAO is pissing me off to some extent. Not a damn thing I can do about it. I'm sure some people think......"the nao can't possibly stay positive all winter can it?".......unfortunately it can.......it averaged positive for djf in 88-89, 93-94, 94-95, 98-99, and 99-00 (among others i'm sure). To add insult to injury, the Dec NAO came in at 2.52 which is the highest on record that I could find. It's only topped +2 one other time and that was Dec 1994 when it came in at 2.02 for the month. 94-95 is a good analog for ao/nao stuff but it is the opposite for enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 These. I can forgive an occasional "weenie-eque" question, but asking for deterministic answers in the medium range and long range is silly. Why thank you lol. when you add this into the SNOstorm in late Jan we're really about to cash in. could be one of the greatest stretches of winter here ever. Going to be 95/96 combined with 09/10 - get ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. I,m sure BB has a great explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Winter cancel :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I,m sure BB has a great explanation. excessive drug use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HA! You are on the record for saying the cup isn't empty. The cup is actually full.....1/4 actual potential......1/4 weenie hope......1/4 unfounded optimism.......1/4 despair and weenie suicidal thoughts... The NAO is pissing me off to some extent. Not a damn thing I can do about it. I'm sure some people think......"the nao can't possibly stay positive all winter can it?".......unfortunately it can.......it averaged positive for djf in 88-89, 93-94, 94-95, 98-99, and 99-00 (among others i'm sure). To add insult to injury, the Dec NAO came in at 2.52 which is the highest on record that I could find. It's only topped +2 one other time and that was Dec 1994 when it came in at 2.02 for the month. 94-95 is a good analog for ao/nao stuff but it is the opposite for enso. in the climo heart of snow season we have that 1/4 just for being alive. tho on a day like today it might be 3/4 since i dont have to wear a jacket to go outside. i have little to no faith the nao will go negative for long this winter. i could be totally wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 excessive drug use? At least give him a chance to explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 At least give him a chance to explain Honestly I think he's secretly married to a weather expert. That's the wife he spoke of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I realize the Euro has a tendency to rush and overamplify things but the strong -EPO signal that keeps showing up run after run is a definite pattern changer in the PAC....we have not had that look yet....Even the euro has the Alaskan ridge a bit too far west to be ideal for us in terms of height anomalies and storm track and it is believable as Nina default will keep forcing a ridge toward the Aleutians, but in terms of dumping cold air into the eastern CONUS that would be a game changer....I noticed last winter that the Euro also likes to keep advertising a split flow that never materializes so I am not too jazzed, but the split flow at the end of the run with the Alaskan ridge would be pretty sweet....As far as the Atlantic it is not going to get ideal anytime soon, but a ridge or block even over Iceland is perfectly suitable and would be a change we have not seen.... As far as bad news, the MJO is stalling again in Phase 6 and may not be of much help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Winter cancel :cry: I feel like Jerry Seinfeld in that one scene with George when they are contemplating life at the diner when George is thinking about getting engaged..Jerry says "what are we doing...we're not men" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I realize the Euro has a tendency to rush and overamplify things but the strong -EPO signal that keeps showing up run after run is a definite pattern changer in the PAC....we have not had that look yet....Even the euro has the Alaskan ridge a bit too far west to be ideal for us in terms of height anomalies and storm track and it is believable as Nina default will keep forcing a ridge toward the Aleutians, but in terms of dumping cold air into the eastern CONUS that would be a game changer....I noticed last winter that the Euro also likes to keep advertising a split flow that never materializes so I am not too jazzed, but the split flow at the end of the run with the Alaskan ridge would be pretty sweet....As far as the Atlantic it is not going to get ideal anytime soon, but a ridge or block even over Iceland is perfectly suitable and would be a change we have not seen.... As far as bad news, the MJO is stalling again in Phase 6 and may not be of much help This may not apply going forward, but the euro sometimes is also too -PNA happy out west...even into sw Canada. Like I said, I don't know if that ridge will actually argue for the euro (it might), but something to watch going forward. Also, and this has to downwell first...but the warming at 50mb continues to look more impressive. I'm seeing +22C contours at 50mb now, where 3 days ago, we had like +18C. We need something to help work it down, but it opened my eyes. I still see no real signs of ridging into the Davis Straits, but that may take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro ensemble mean looks nothing like the Op at Day 9-10. Matches previous runs and the GFS much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! Well I appreciated the comment, I jsut got back from golfing and was able to play in shirt sleeves and then had a slurpie. Wow, that's living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! oh, ok good. I thought you might be talking about February. Can we change the domain name to americanwx.xxx so the kiddie filter blocks this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well I appreciated the comment, I jsut got back from golfing and was able to play in shirt sleeves and then had a slurpie. Wow, that's living. do me a favor and quit having so much golfing fun this winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Well at least we will get to hear more of his bicycle stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Typing from the iPhone. Lol. Calling me a kiddie lol . Surprised the spell check did not fix the spelling for me. I am joined American weather for the inside scoop on weather and to bulid a network of knowledge. Some people are nice on this blog and some seem like they always have there panties in a knot. Maybe next time before I right, I will make sure I do spell right for the short tempered. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 do me a favor and quit having so much golfing fun this winter season lol, it wasn't fun. I had my worst outing in the past year and it wasn't even close. The only nice thing about it was being outdoors and the weather. The rest was really ugly sort of like the recent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 lol, it wasn't fun. I had my worst outing in the past year and it wasn't even close. The only nice thing about it was being outdoors and the weather. The rest was really ugly sort of like the recent pattern. Same thing happened to me Wes the last time i played three weeks ago. It was so bad i decided that it could hit 80 degrees this month and the clubs will not come out until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ps, I have always been lucky... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not sure what is worse right now, the crappy pattern or the relative unknown members declaring how they know big snows are coming. I,m very skeptical and not very patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That Monday near non event came further north on the 00z NAM...quite a bit from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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