WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it looks better than it has for the early week crap event.. close to spitting out some mixed precip in the area now. Wunderground weenie maps have a little snow north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho That rex block look in the Pacific has been hinted at a bit for a couple days now. The positive heights in the north Pac I think is the durable feature. The -NAO depicted there looks transient to me and I suspect the Day 11-15 Euro would park the PV back near Baffin Island again if I had to extrapolate. I don't buy this wound up Upper Midwest low on Day 9-10...it's a total change from the persistence that both the Euro and GFS have been showing for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho Yes, and the ridge starts pushing into se greenland at 192. If you extrapolate the 240hr euro, things are looking pretty good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the new euro weeklies came out last night. Anyone hear anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the new euro weeklies came out last night. Anyone hear anything? They're warm throughout the central and eastern U.S. New England turns cooler in the 12-18 day, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 They're warm throughout the central and eastern U.S. New England turns cooler in the 12-18 day, but that's it. warm through when? how far do they run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 warm through when? how far do they run? I think they run 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 warm through when? how far do they run? I think they run 4 weeks. It runs 32 days (week 4 is the 26-32 day... week 1 is the 5-11 day). Personally, I think anything past week two is pure bunk unless the pattern is persistent. Week two even pushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 question, first I read that hm says the pattern is in the process of changing, then here the euro weeklies are warm. Which is accurrate?? There are so many contradicting posts here, how is one to get an accurrate assessment of what is going on?? The event monday comes and goes and so does the cold air. Gfs looks cold in the long run and shows a couple of storms. The euro shows a storm in the midwest that someone doubts given previous runs. I really dont know what to believe. Sorry, but its confusing. I wish there was some consistency in what is posted. Not trying to be nasty, just frustrated. Thaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It runs 32 days (week 4 is the 26-32 day... week 1 is the 5-11 day). Personally, I think anything past week two is pure bunk unless the pattern is persistent. Week two even pushes it. Got it thanks, it is a good thing it is bunk or we would be screwed and JI would be in here in a minute screaming winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 question, first I read that hm says the pattern is in the process of changing, then here the euro weeklies are warm. Which is accurrate?? HM is not a model. The Euro is a model - IMHO you cannot compare the two. A computer doesn't know how to look at trends and the overall pattern. Plus, a model is only one model. It could be that neither are accurate. Not a great question IMO just because you are under the assumption that one has to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern is changing. I suppose it's not locked in stone that the pattern will change indefinitely (i.e., that it won't switch back to crap). It's certainly possible that even with the pattern change we still end up on the positive side of normal for the next few weeks. I think we probably end up near normal or slightly below from the 15-31st based on the progs of that time period and the larger factors at play that seem to favor a trough in the eastern CONUS (MJO, strat warming driving a -AO), but that's still a long ways off and things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's all still heavy speculation that the second half of winter is going to be much better than the first. I don't think it's necessarily meaningless that something looks warm throughout tho of course who believes a model at 3 weeks uot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HM is not a model. The Euro is a model - IMHO you cannot compare the two. A computer doesn't know how to look at trends and the overall pattern. Plus, a model is only one model. It could be that neither are accurate. Not a great question IMO just because you are under the assumption that one has to be correct. I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern is changing. I suppose it's not locked in stone that the pattern will change indefinitely (i.e., that it won't switch back to crap). It's certainly possible that even with the pattern change we still end up on the positive side of normal for the next few weeks. I think we probably end up near normal or slightly below from the 15-31st based on the progs of that time period and the larger factors at play that seem to favor a trough in the eastern CONUS (MJO, strat warming driving a -AO), but that's still a long ways off and things change. thank you Ellinwood for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just like the CFS, feeling confident in the weeklies is not the way to go. If the ao/nao go negative in 10 days then the weeklies turn cold. 10 days after that when the ao/nao go back to posiitive the weeklies turn warm again. I've always thought the cfs was just extending what it was currently seeing. Change what it is seeing and the monthlies change with it. I could be full of crap but that's what I've noticed with the weeklies and cfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Mapgirl, I do embrace it. I also like snow and cold, to a certain degree. I,m just confused by what I read on here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Mapgirl, I do embrace it. I also like snow and cold, to a certain degree. I,m just confused by what I read on here. Thanks Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 thank you Ellinwood for clarifying. Typo, compliment, or insult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Typo, compliment, or insult My apologies I got the two of you mixed up. Thanks for your words of wisdom. No insult intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just like the CFS, feeling confident in the weeklies is not the way to go. If the ao/nao go negative in 10 days then the weeklies turn cold. 10 days after that when the ao/nao go back to posiitive the weeklies turn warm again. I've always thought the cfs was just extending what it was currently seeing. Change what it is seeing and the monthlies change with it. I could be full of crap but that's what I've noticed with the weeklies and cfs. yeah but we're continually looking at d10 for a possible -nao. if it never comes or is only transient we're not ever going to be cold long even if we do get more frequent shots than the first half of winter. not to mention a pattern change might still give us not much to be excited about... but some of you are always cup 3/4 full even if it should be 1/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! I think I see what you've done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! I was not trying to come across as terse... All I'm saying is you said "which one is accurate" - could be neither. It's not either or. I would lean towards HM given that he's not a computer and can analyze things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Yes, I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think I see what you've done here. Keep the peace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Good post. I certainly was not trying to be rude or mean in my original post...I was simply stating the truth for him but I guess mdsnowlover perceived me as being terse so sorry for that! Questions are always good but we should always make sure that they are good questions with logical backing. Ok back to discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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