mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 excessive drug use? At least give him a chance to explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 At least give him a chance to explain Honestly I think he's secretly married to a weather expert. That's the wife he spoke of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Winter cancel :cry: I feel like Jerry Seinfeld in that one scene with George when they are contemplating life at the diner when George is thinking about getting engaged..Jerry says "what are we doing...we're not men" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I realize the Euro has a tendency to rush and overamplify things but the strong -EPO signal that keeps showing up run after run is a definite pattern changer in the PAC....we have not had that look yet....Even the euro has the Alaskan ridge a bit too far west to be ideal for us in terms of height anomalies and storm track and it is believable as Nina default will keep forcing a ridge toward the Aleutians, but in terms of dumping cold air into the eastern CONUS that would be a game changer....I noticed last winter that the Euro also likes to keep advertising a split flow that never materializes so I am not too jazzed, but the split flow at the end of the run with the Alaskan ridge would be pretty sweet....As far as the Atlantic it is not going to get ideal anytime soon, but a ridge or block even over Iceland is perfectly suitable and would be a change we have not seen.... As far as bad news, the MJO is stalling again in Phase 6 and may not be of much help This may not apply going forward, but the euro sometimes is also too -PNA happy out west...even into sw Canada. Like I said, I don't know if that ridge will actually argue for the euro (it might), but something to watch going forward. Also, and this has to downwell first...but the warming at 50mb continues to look more impressive. I'm seeing +22C contours at 50mb now, where 3 days ago, we had like +18C. We need something to help work it down, but it opened my eyes. I still see no real signs of ridging into the Davis Straits, but that may take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro ensemble mean looks nothing like the Op at Day 9-10. Matches previous runs and the GFS much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! Well I appreciated the comment, I jsut got back from golfing and was able to play in shirt sleeves and then had a slurpie. Wow, that's living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! oh, ok good. I thought you might be talking about February. Can we change the domain name to americanwx.xxx so the kiddie filter blocks this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well I appreciated the comment, I jsut got back from golfing and was able to play in shirt sleeves and then had a slurpie. Wow, that's living. do me a favor and quit having so much golfing fun this winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Well at least we will get to hear more of his bicycle stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Typing from the iPhone. Lol. Calling me a kiddie lol . Surprised the spell check did not fix the spelling for me. I am joined American weather for the inside scoop on weather and to bulid a network of knowledge. Some people are nice on this blog and some seem like they always have there panties in a knot. Maybe next time before I right, I will make sure I do spell right for the short tempered. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 do me a favor and quit having so much golfing fun this winter season lol, it wasn't fun. I had my worst outing in the past year and it wasn't even close. The only nice thing about it was being outdoors and the weather. The rest was really ugly sort of like the recent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 lol, it wasn't fun. I had my worst outing in the past year and it wasn't even close. The only nice thing about it was being outdoors and the weather. The rest was really ugly sort of like the recent pattern. Same thing happened to me Wes the last time i played three weeks ago. It was so bad i decided that it could hit 80 degrees this month and the clubs will not come out until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ps, I have always been lucky... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not sure what is worse right now, the crappy pattern or the relative unknown members declaring how they know big snows are coming. I,m very skeptical and not very patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That Monday near non event came further north on the 00z NAM...quite a bit from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If there's anything positive, for me, I'd have to say it's the EC ens. showing a slight negative NAO for days 8-10 (looks east to me) and some ridging over Alaska. At least it's a different look that what we've seen for a long time. Probably change on the next run (so much for thinking positive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If there's anything positive, for me, I'd have to say it's the EC ens. showing a slight negative NAO for days 8-10 (looks east to me) and some ridging over Alaska. At least it's a different look that what we've seen for a long time. Probably change on the next run (so much for thinking positive). New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible GFS Ensembles keep it rather cold after the rain event next week. In fact the rest of the run following the rain event is quite cold. Unfortunately, the atlantic is still crappy (ensembles suggest a north atlantic ridge, but not real block) and there is still the pesky vortex over Baffin Island region. The pacific is improved and there is definitely a colder source region. The result looks relatively cold and dry after next week's rain. I still think that we will need to wait until the latter part of January into February to see significant snow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Seriously? Because the GFS is perfectly accurate a week out right? Get real! I know it's tiring waiting for something exciting but just because the GFS doesn't show what you want doesn't mean "it's over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We seem to get cold shots, yet no snow but when it warms up a bit we get rain. I dont know what has to change this, but after reading the medium range discussion in the main forum it doesnt appear to be anytime soon. There isnt any agreemrnt that thr pattern is even going to change. Until that happens I think our snow chances are very low. Heck some are forecasting a 3rd year of la nina. Seems like we had better get used to very little snow for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You know the patten is bad or shows no signs of changing when the red taggers have not posted going on 14 hours now. sorry off topic, back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seriously? Because the GFS is perfectly accurate a week out right? Get real! I know it's tiring waiting for something exciting but just because the GFS doesn't show what you want doesn't mean "it's over" You're right. Sorry, I was a bit pessimistic and dramtic last night. I was looking just at the Atlantic side for some blocking and didn't see it so I threw my hands in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS ensembles continue to have a better look for us than the Op runs. Op runs (last few) have really turned ugly for us in the longer range. Ensembles keep the evolution of the pattern that we've been talking about for the last several days/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New GFS run is bad...now it reduces the big arctic plunge next weekend to a cold front passage...it's over my friend...at least for January in my opinion...just terrible Disappointingly, looks a lot more like the 12Z Euro... Now which is the better model...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How can the ensembles look so different from the op run?? I realize there is smoothing done onthe ensembles. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Look, when you think positive good things will usually out weigh the bad. Not just what you see in front of you is always fact either. Weather changes constantly which makes it even more interesting for me. Yes the models say one thing one day and say another the next day. I still believe in the pattern change coming near late January. I believe we had a flip in 09 similar to this. I have seen a post, someone maybe writing off next winter too. I know that you have a 60% El Nino after back to back La Nina and a 40% for a 3rd straight La Nina. Way to early to think about next year yet but I wrote about next winter in another forum somewhere. Solar cycle might play a big part in next years winter. The solar activity is suppose to plumit in 2013 with cycle 24. Volcanic activity might play a part as well for next year. Thats just what I know about next year and sorry if the upsets anyone about writing a little about next year. But coming off back to back La Ninas can be great at times. Anyways I still have faith in this winter and I said it before, " be careful what you wish for" and I mean this for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You know the patten is bad or shows no signs of changing when the red taggers have not posted going on 14 hours now. sorry off topic, back to lurking. Or it could be because we're tired of reading endless f**king complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or it could be because we're tired of reading endless f**king complaints. OR it could be we were asleep for 8 hours and had other things to attend to besides posting here. I don't see much new to post about in terms of the pattern. The -pNA looks like despite Cahir's connection, the coldest air may stay to our west especially with the nao remaining positive. Even if the Nao were to go neutral that's still not a good combo in a la nina year with the PNA ridge retrograding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 OR it could be we were asleep for 8 hours and had other things to attend to besides posting here. I don't see much new to post about in terms of the pattern. The -pNA looks like despite Cahir's connection, the coldest air may stay to our west especially with the nao remaining positive. Even if the Nao were to go neutral that's still not a good combo in a la nina year with the PNA ridge retrograding. I slept for 12 hours And agreed that there really isn't anything new to post about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How can the ensembles look so different from the op run?? I realize there is smoothing done onthe ensembles. Thanks It's called Chaos. On the right hand side of the plot below you'll see lots of lines. They represent various contour lines from the 500mb forecast from the ensemble members. The white lines show the control, essentially the operation but I think it is run with the same resolution as the ensemble members (DTK can correct me if I'm wrong). all the ensemble members are run with slightly different initial conditions than their counterparts or the operational. Those differences in the initial conditions grow during the run. BY 240 hours most of the members have a different idea of the evolution of the pattern than the control (operational). The ensemble mean (the average of all the members) therefore looks much different than the control because averaging smooths features but also because the operational is an outlier. It still could be correct but usually the ensemble mean will beat it at those time ranges. Hope I've semi answered your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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