Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 still pretty hard to get too excited about this early week thingy. the euro came north with precip but it's too mild and precip still south of dc area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What a desperate group we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What a desperate group we are. Yup. Hard not to be. Hell, most of us would just like something, anything, to track. I miss at least having something to look at and think about in terms of threats. It has been boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yup. Hard not to be. Hell, most of us would just like something, anything, to track. I miss at least having something to look at and think about in terms of threats. It has been boring. Are you ready to punt any slop Monday? I ask because I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that's coming north a little. Although it wouldn't be huge, it might be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Are you ready to punt any slop Monday? I ask because I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that's coming north a little. Although it wouldn't be huge, it might be something. it looks south of 6z to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it looks south of 6z to me? 12z doesnt show anything N of the VA/NC border and that is being generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z doesnt show anything N of the VA/NC border and that is being generous Yup! Not a lot of precip associated with it too. It is off the coast by HR78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z doesnt show anything N of the VA/NC border and that is being generous looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot. If it's not gonna snow, I'll take warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot. Maybe we can get enough warming to get severe for next week's rain event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well that was fun - I blame HM for mentioning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 If it's not gonna snow, I'll take warmer temps. Yeah this one, while it still needs watching, is a very low threat. The main time frame has been and will continue to be 1/10-15. This was the period I highlighted back in the autumn. New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm. A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol. As I said last week, torch fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well that was fun - I blame HM for mentioning it Haha! The s/w makes "landfall" at 00z. Perhaps land sampling will offer a different scenario....nah. Lol It is all about the trough split (some backs SW due to inertia and some comes eastward). If a healthier s/w comes eastward, more moisture will come northward. Just keep an eye on it, even though it's likely no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'll take Hrs 348-360, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yeah this one, while it still needs watching, is a very low threat. The main time frame has been and will continue to be 1/10-15. This was the period I highlighted back in the autumn. New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm. A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol. As I said last week, torch fail... Way to go, now you've ruined it Haha! The s/w makes "landfall" at 00z. Perhaps land sampling will offer a different scenario....nah. Lol It is all about the trough split (some backs SW due to inertia and some comes eastward). If a healthier s/w comes eastward, more moisture will come northward. Just keep an eye on it, even though it's likely no big deal. Ok, weenie. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm. Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol. As I said last week, torch fail... Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Eurojosh mentioned it, probably while you were typing this response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 the best thing about winter arriving is it's on borrowed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Eurojosh mentioned it, probably while you were typing this response ...And I even included the weenie emoticon! I still think Wes' comment a few days ago about the future, post-rainstorm, being unpredictable has value. Until we're past next Thursday (12 Jan) I don't put much faith in what comes after on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Jackpotted my CWA this far away--- they never work out. While we can argue the global pattern, with that BIG HP pressing in, the low track makes sense on that level. That looks like a NINO storm-- relatively weak SW on the STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it looks south of 6z to me? I guess I confused you. I should have said, "I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that will come north a little," Although I didn't put a lot of stock in the 6z solution, I am wondering if what is shown in the 12z is too far south. No big deal because even if it does turn out perfectly, I know that it wouldn't be anything more than conversational anyway. Something that I will track nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, we're only a neg nao away from snow next wednesday night into thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what happened to the rain storm next week lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what happened to the rain storm next week lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, we're only a neg nao away from snow next wednesday night into thurs. We could squeak by with a neutral. Better than a raging + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 We could squeak by with a neutral. Better than a raging + Hmmm.... that's true + = rain 0 = snow to rain - = snow To bad we all know it's going to be + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 5-6 GFS ensemble members have a follow-up storm to the big rainer that is either snow or OTS next weekend. I'll take #7 please. Thanks. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html Also the majority have a large storm in the very long range Day 12-14, so the Op was not by itself on the fantasy MECS. Ensemble mean pattern looks robust for some seasonably chilly weather (at or below normal) after the rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro looks MUCH warmer than GFS for next weekend/early next week... It really pulls apart that midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm just going to ignore Day 9 and 10 on the Euro since it's a complete change from all previous runs and, as of yet, has not support on that look. I'll chalk it up to the Euro's persistent overamplification bias in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro looks MUCH warmer than GFS for next weekend/early next week... It really pulls apart that midweek storm. it looks better than it has for the early week crap event.. close to spitting out some mixed precip in the area now. but the late week cold shot is super transient then mild again. looks like a motherlode of cold at 240 into the northern plains though with a sys well to our nw (like the upper lakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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