mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HM is not a model. The Euro is a model - IMHO you cannot compare the two. A computer doesn't know how to look at trends and the overall pattern. Plus, a model is only one model. It could be that neither are accurate. Not a great question IMO just because you are under the assumption that one has to be correct. I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern is changing. I suppose it's not locked in stone that the pattern will change indefinitely (i.e., that it won't switch back to crap). It's certainly possible that even with the pattern change we still end up on the positive side of normal for the next few weeks. I think we probably end up near normal or slightly below from the 15-31st based on the progs of that time period and the larger factors at play that seem to favor a trough in the eastern CONUS (MJO, strat warming driving a -AO), but that's still a long ways off and things change. thank you Ellinwood for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just like the CFS, feeling confident in the weeklies is not the way to go. If the ao/nao go negative in 10 days then the weeklies turn cold. 10 days after that when the ao/nao go back to posiitive the weeklies turn warm again. I've always thought the cfs was just extending what it was currently seeing. Change what it is seeing and the monthlies change with it. I could be full of crap but that's what I've noticed with the weeklies and cfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 All I know is that I,m loving this weather right now, so who cares if the pattern changes or not. Embrace the torch! Mapgirl, I do embrace it. I also like snow and cold, to a certain degree. I,m just confused by what I read on here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Mapgirl, I do embrace it. I also like snow and cold, to a certain degree. I,m just confused by what I read on here. Thanks Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 thank you Ellinwood for clarifying. Typo, compliment, or insult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Typo, compliment, or insult My apologies I got the two of you mixed up. Thanks for your words of wisdom. No insult intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just like the CFS, feeling confident in the weeklies is not the way to go. If the ao/nao go negative in 10 days then the weeklies turn cold. 10 days after that when the ao/nao go back to posiitive the weeklies turn warm again. I've always thought the cfs was just extending what it was currently seeing. Change what it is seeing and the monthlies change with it. I could be full of crap but that's what I've noticed with the weeklies and cfs. yeah but we're continually looking at d10 for a possible -nao. if it never comes or is only transient we're not ever going to be cold long even if we do get more frequent shots than the first half of winter. not to mention a pattern change might still give us not much to be excited about... but some of you are always cup 3/4 full even if it should be 1/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Oh, my post wasn't a knock at you, I,m just trying to calm the group as a whole. We are all frustrated by the models that are constantly changing and the fact that we keep hearing that the pattern is going to change soon and then it gets pushed back another week or so. I,m just trying to keep the peace! I think I see what you've done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I never said HM was a model. However he is almost revered on this board. I,m not comparing the two. I,m stating what has been written on this board. Well isn't one or the other supposed to represent what the heck is going on. If not why look at them??? Most here think the euro is great the gfs second. That is what I,m reading. If I,m mis interpreting fine. I accept that. I,m a novice. But the more I read there seems to be no consensus of what is going on.. I,m asking questions. If you dont like the question fine too. I,m trying to understand what is going to happen. Sorry for asking!! I was not trying to come across as terse... All I'm saying is you said "which one is accurate" - could be neither. It's not either or. I would lean towards HM given that he's not a computer and can analyze things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Yes, I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think I see what you've done here. Keep the peace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Good post. I certainly was not trying to be rude or mean in my original post...I was simply stating the truth for him but I guess mdsnowlover perceived me as being terse so sorry for that! Questions are always good but we should always make sure that they are good questions with logical backing. Ok back to discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Keep the peace? I,m not sure. It is worth noting that the Euro was first out with the solution of possible snow this weekend. I believe that it originally had it for Sunday afternoon. With the GFS and NAM totally backing away from the potential this weekend, I couldn't help but be reminded of the late Jan storm two years ago. On Thursday, both models completely let the wind out our sails only to trend right back to us the next day. I still want to watch the models through at least Sat. night before giving in. I realize that the storm two years ago was different in that we had a ton of cold, but it was a slider as well, modeled to run right along the tn/ky and va/nc borders but then gave precip much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow, has anyone ever seen the SREFS change so dramatically from one run to the next? Just look at the precip at 75 hour on the 9z and compare to the 69 hour on the 15z. With the GFS and NAM dropping this thing so fast, makes me wonder what happened to cause such a jump. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What do you expect dude? 100% consensus? Absolute certainty? it's forecasting, not future-vision. Different things might say or predict different things based on similar data. It's the nature of the beast. Your best bet is to pay close attention and try and learn. If you keep asking for "answers" every time you read something conflicting or confusing on here, you're going to spend an awful lot of time trying to get definitive answers that simply don't exist. Questions are always good but we should always make sure that they are good questions with logical backing. Ok back to discussion. These. I can forgive an occasional "weenie-eque" question, but asking for deterministic answers in the medium range and long range is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. when you add this into the SNOstorm in late Jan we're really about to cash in. could be one of the greatest stretches of winter here ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Telconnections are going in our favor near or around the 18th of Jan. Watch and see as old man winter awakes finally. Febuary will be our window of some good snowstorm/icestorm partying. The cold will finally start staying around longer around the 18th. Be patience winter will come, just hang on a little longer. " Be careful for what you wish for" I mean this for Febuary, just watch! Ok! I will be patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 but some of you are always cup 3/4 full even if it should be 1/4. HA! You are on the record for saying the cup isn't empty. The cup is actually full.....1/4 actual potential......1/4 weenie hope......1/4 unfounded optimism.......1/4 despair and weenie suicidal thoughts... The NAO is pissing me off to some extent. Not a damn thing I can do about it. I'm sure some people think......"the nao can't possibly stay positive all winter can it?".......unfortunately it can.......it averaged positive for djf in 88-89, 93-94, 94-95, 98-99, and 99-00 (among others i'm sure). To add insult to injury, the Dec NAO came in at 2.52 which is the highest on record that I could find. It's only topped +2 one other time and that was Dec 1994 when it came in at 2.02 for the month. 94-95 is a good analog for ao/nao stuff but it is the opposite for enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 These. I can forgive an occasional "weenie-eque" question, but asking for deterministic answers in the medium range and long range is silly. Why thank you lol. when you add this into the SNOstorm in late Jan we're really about to cash in. could be one of the greatest stretches of winter here ever. Going to be 95/96 combined with 09/10 - get ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No offense to Brad1551 and Bethesdaboy, but do those predicting a barnstorming Feb/Mar have anything to go on other than a gut feeling that, after a few decent years "it can't possibly be as bad as it seems!" Sure there's a chance things will reverse and we'll end up near, or even above, norm, but that'd be a statistical anomally at this point, which won't prove the 'yeasayers' right - just lucky. I,m sure BB has a great explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not on board with pattern change. He always seemed to be the sensible one at Accu. It's Jan 6 with nothing to track inside 300hrs. I believe the best I will do is that rogue streamer the other night. sad...very sad Winter cancel :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I,m sure BB has a great explanation. excessive drug use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HA! You are on the record for saying the cup isn't empty. The cup is actually full.....1/4 actual potential......1/4 weenie hope......1/4 unfounded optimism.......1/4 despair and weenie suicidal thoughts... The NAO is pissing me off to some extent. Not a damn thing I can do about it. I'm sure some people think......"the nao can't possibly stay positive all winter can it?".......unfortunately it can.......it averaged positive for djf in 88-89, 93-94, 94-95, 98-99, and 99-00 (among others i'm sure). To add insult to injury, the Dec NAO came in at 2.52 which is the highest on record that I could find. It's only topped +2 one other time and that was Dec 1994 when it came in at 2.02 for the month. 94-95 is a good analog for ao/nao stuff but it is the opposite for enso. in the climo heart of snow season we have that 1/4 just for being alive. tho on a day like today it might be 3/4 since i dont have to wear a jacket to go outside. i have little to no faith the nao will go negative for long this winter. i could be totally wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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