Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this going to verify, in anyone's opinion?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol It was just a heads up; I have no idea if this will work out next week. The problem is: I have nothing to base anything on outside of timing of s/w and model trends. There aren't any larger teleconnections that would suggest something should or should not happen. The good news is that the displacement of the Asian Vortex will be the force the flips the WPO/EPO and it is happening in the short-range. Just run a GFS loop of the N PAC. The pattern is in the process of flipping there as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this going to verify, in anyone's opinion?? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks Ellinwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol We're going to get this one... I can feel the optimism...and the pattern looks better after that cutoff low...6z run never lies...those 300hr maps although fantasy look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. hi! there are plenty of places you can go to find this type of information out on your own here are a few places for you too look: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KSBY - you can put in the airport code (KBWI, KIAD, KDCA) to find out what the GFS has for temps, precip amounts, and whether it is rain or snow http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm - where you can find clown maps for both NAM and GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html - model page, also where you can find snowfall maps for both NAM and GFS I hope that helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What Katie said. Also, if mdsnowlover read up in the thread, I had already mentioned the clown maps gave us an inch or two on that run. As always, taken with 1000 grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I could see this happening, especially with the very inconsistent medium range solutions. Unless we have a solid -NAO / classic 50-50 low going on, anything that can potentially bring wintry weather to the Mid-Atlantic will probably slowly come into focus during the short-range. that's what I was thinking too hope you're right about next week; 6Z GFS makes you look like a genious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What Katie said. Also, if mdsnowlover read up in the thread, I had already mentioned the clown maps gave us an inch or two on that run. As always, taken with 1000 grains of salt. Definitely - I don't know what goes into making the snowfall maps for the models, but we have seen them be well over done in many cases. Here is HR84 from 06z GFS (snow shows up for a few hours after this one) edit to add: this is from the raleighwx website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks mapgirl!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Definitely - I don't know what goes into making the snowfall maps for the models, but we have seen them be well over done in many cases. Here is HR84 from 06z GFS (snow shows up for a few hours after this one) edit to add: this is from the raleighwx website I wonder how many pixels that will add to the snowcover map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm going on record in saying I don't think we should punt this weekend event. Not that that means anything to anyone, but I'm remaining optimistic this time. A 12z Euro/18z GFS blend would be nice. The Euro track and strength shifted slightly south and colder to the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro just yesterday morning had a decent snow for parts of the area for this time frame. I am going to continue to bump my own posts in case it actually works out. Take that METS! I hope everyone knows that I'm only joking. Happy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. Relax dude...just having a little fun with you. I even winked. You sort of asked for a little ribbing when after your analysis you whined about it being new way of getting jobbed out of snow this winter. just a bit weenie-ish. But hey, if you think I am a dick, you are entitled to your opinion. Throwing personal insults around because you are testy about not getting snow is a little childish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I am going to continue to bump my own posts in case it actually works out. So wait you still endorsing the weekend event? It seems to be coming around for us. Take that METS! I hope everyone knows that I'm only joking. Happy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Take it for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Jackpot, Westminster. And, CAPE, I am not one who has been on every day complaining about lack of snow. It is what it is, as it were. No need to project stuff on me that isn't there. I lived in Memphis from 1998 to summer of 2009. I know from winters with little to no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Take it for what its worth classic snow accum profile with everything decent west of I95, the start of the peidmont vs. the coastal plain to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Take it for what its worth Dang...that's one sharp cutoff South of C-ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Per the GFS last few runs, looks like the cold air might catch up with the precip as the low is departing late Thursday...have to watch future runs but could end as snow, especially west of I-95. As for the possible minor front running event, I would be interested in what the 12z Gfs shows and see if there is any other collaboration, but If anything occurs it would be light and with very marginal temps, probably not looking at any accumulations. My guess is that it will stay south and be weaker than the 6z GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Jackpot, Westminster. And, CAPE, I am not one who has been on every day complaining about lack of snow. It is what it is, as it were. No need to project stuff on me that isn't there. I lived in Memphis from 1998 to summer of 2009. I know from winters with little to no snow. Where in Memphis did you live? My aunt lives in Cordova and my grandparents in Germantown for a while before their deaths... my wife and I lived over in Little Rock and Conway for ~5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Where in Memphis did you live? My aunt lives in Cordova and my grandparents in Germantown for a while before their deaths... my wife and I lived over in Little Rock and Conway for ~5 years. Kevin: I was in East Memphis, just into the city, near the Germantown line. I grew up in SW and Central Ohio in the 70s and 80s, and while I never saw storms there like we saw here in Baltimore in 09/10, I did get used to snow. 6" - 8" inch storms were certainly gettable when I was a kid. As a result, Memphis winters were a shock. They were forever just on the warm side of any chance of snow, it would be 34 and raining and 30 miles north 32 and snowing, perpetually. That was just the climate there. If I saw one genuine 1" - 2" snowfall a winter, that was lucky. Memphis got more ice. Memphis couldn't buy snow even when Little Rock was cashing in. At any rate, moving back to a snow chance area like the MA has been awfully fun. But my memories of crap winters in Memphis have made this one at least easier to take, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Take it for what its worth Blizzard (compared to winter so far). I'm down with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dang...that's one sharp cutoff South of C-ville LOL! Linear too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 LOL! Linear too! Since this will probably be an elevation storm, I'm not surprised that the fall line is depicted as the cutoff between who gets a few inches and who doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 As long as I get to see snow fall, I'm happy. Looks like I'm on the EDIT: 1" edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z NAM at 78hr - again, take it for what its worth... but it has the precip much further south than the 06z GFS did for the same timeframe (18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 As long as I get to see snow fall, I'm happy. Looks like I'm on the 2" edge. Not in Adelphi. Isn't 2 inches the blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Per the GFS last few runs, looks like the cold air might catch up with the precip as the low is departing late Thursday...have to watch future runs but could end as snow, especially west of I-95. As for the possible minor front running event, I would be interested in what the 12z Gfs shows and see if there is any other collaboration, but If anything occurs it would be light and with very marginal temps, probably not looking at any accumulations. My guess is that it will stay south and be weaker than the 6z GFS is showing. Yeah, hard to believe the 06z is right. Once again it's different than what any if not most models are showing. It can happen, we'll have to keep following it, but I'm leaning towards a non-event mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Not in Adelphi. Isn't 2 inches the blue? You are correct, I've gone colorblind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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