Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 you know it's bad when mets outside the region start trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 First HM and then Coastal? That's more encouraging than gfs, euro, AND nam consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 and yeah. .i see the overrunning potential and the marginal cold but im cynical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 you know it's bad when mets outside the region start trolling us I always thought having outsider mets posting here is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 When Wes likes the chances then i will start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 When Wes likes the chances then i will start getting excited. I'd imagine he would ask where the cold air is...maybe the northern branch could come in quicker than is currently depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 and yeah. .i see the overrunning potential and the marginal cold but im cynical Well I just meant something to watch. I wouldn't have any excitement right now, other than it could be like a break off piece of moisture driven by WAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It would be nice if the low didn't slide off the coast to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. As Yogi said, it ain't over til......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 18z ind. members show a wee bit of promise as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. Just to add to this post...........I think I like the flukes more than the perfect storms. I know everyone loves the 5 day modeled, 20 inch snow, and they are great. But, a fluke event can bring an excitement that's hard to top. Tuesday's fluke LE snow streamer here in Winchester was one of those. I've lived here for four years, and I've never seen us get accumulating snow in that setup. It was only an inch or two, depending upon how lucky you were, but it was a thrill. It only lasted a couple of hours, but it really put on a show for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well I just meant something to watch. I wouldn't have any excitement right now, other than it could be like a break off piece of moisture driven by WAA aloft. i hear ya.. my other comment was in jest. i like you and hm much better than that orh guy. we are into the time where it's easier to get wintry precip without things being ideal in all senses. wouldnt take a lot of change.. but given that we're in mild stretch up ahead it's hard to have too much faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. NAO NAO NAO NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. NAO, AO, then PNA. I'm not sure MJO can be included in the same subgroup as the rest, for various reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. AO needs to go negative 1st to push the cold the air out of the arctic. Then the NAO needs to dive to get the high latitude blocking. PNA, MJO, Rosby wave trains, etc. etc. comes after in really no practical order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, the NAM is getting more interesting, whatever that's worth. Tad colder and wetter Sun night/Mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree with HM. Early next week may be something to watch..even if it is very light. LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. The 06Z GFS seems to want to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Whar exactly is the 6z gfs showing, rain or snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 lol..are you kidding me? Text book snow and ice? Dont you need cold? anyway...the models have incredible agreement on this event right now which means it will be nothing like the models currently have LOL Can't you read? "Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on." And yes, I agree about next week and the model comment...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 7-8 day range has me a little interested (Maybe more so 40 North though) after the cut off swings through. Seems that the models are slowing down the extension of the PV allowing the cutoff to reach around a 50/50 position before it swings the PV through. The models seem to be now showing some bagginess down the East Coast as well. I wonder what a little energy rounding the base of the PV might accomplish in the setup showing on the models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HM, thanks for the heads up on at least the possibility of something early next week. It doesn't come together on the 0z overnite (from my quick glance), but CAPE's most favorite model run the 6z does try to put something frozen in here on Tuesday, and the clown maps give us the poss of an inch or two or so on Tuesday. That's a lot more fun for a few hours than we have gotten most of this season so far. I guess something to check back in on at 12z. I am also guessing the Euro didn't have it either overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. I could see this happening, especially with the very inconsistent medium range solutions. Unless we have a solid -NAO / classic 50-50 low going on, anything that can potentially bring wintry weather to the Mid-Atlantic will probably slowly come into focus during the short-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Whar exactly is the 6z gfs showing, rain or snow??? Surface looks a little iffy on the Southern part of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It appears to be a snow event, correct???? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It appears to be a snow event, correct???? Thanks. 540 line and 0 degree 850 line are south, but surface temps at BWI are at about 34-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. Looking at the soundings for this run you would probably be mostly if not all snow for your location. Inch, maybe 2? Edit: Looked over the soundings again. Surface is a little warm. You might eek out an inch if the intensity of the precip is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thank you for your reply and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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