mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yeah this one, while it still needs watching, is a very low threat. The main time frame has been and will continue to be 1/10-15. This was the period I highlighted back in the autumn. New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm. A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol. As I said last week, torch fail... Way to go, now you've ruined it Haha! The s/w makes "landfall" at 00z. Perhaps land sampling will offer a different scenario....nah. Lol It is all about the trough split (some backs SW due to inertia and some comes eastward). If a healthier s/w comes eastward, more moisture will come northward. Just keep an eye on it, even though it's likely no big deal. Ok, weenie. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm. Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol. As I said last week, torch fail... Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Eurojosh mentioned it, probably while you were typing this response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 the best thing about winter arriving is it's on borrowed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Eurojosh mentioned it, probably while you were typing this response ...And I even included the weenie emoticon! I still think Wes' comment a few days ago about the future, post-rainstorm, being unpredictable has value. Until we're past next Thursday (12 Jan) I don't put much faith in what comes after on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yup...I mentioned this a bit yesterday. If we can time a s/w rotating through the broader longwave trough, maybe we can pop a coastal. GFS does this but has it weak and too far OTS to give most of us anything, but I like the idea. Also...GFS shows a 336hr MECS and it doesn't get a mention?!? Come on weenies! Definitely no sign of a torch on this run whatsoever. Jackpotted my CWA this far away--- they never work out. While we can argue the global pattern, with that BIG HP pressing in, the low track makes sense on that level. That looks like a NINO storm-- relatively weak SW on the STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it looks south of 6z to me? I guess I confused you. I should have said, "I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that will come north a little," Although I didn't put a lot of stock in the 6z solution, I am wondering if what is shown in the 12z is too far south. No big deal because even if it does turn out perfectly, I know that it wouldn't be anything more than conversational anyway. Something that I will track nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, we're only a neg nao away from snow next wednesday night into thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what happened to the rain storm next week lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what happened to the rain storm next week lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, we're only a neg nao away from snow next wednesday night into thurs. We could squeak by with a neutral. Better than a raging + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 We could squeak by with a neutral. Better than a raging + Hmmm.... that's true + = rain 0 = snow to rain - = snow To bad we all know it's going to be + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 5-6 GFS ensemble members have a follow-up storm to the big rainer that is either snow or OTS next weekend. I'll take #7 please. Thanks. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html Also the majority have a large storm in the very long range Day 12-14, so the Op was not by itself on the fantasy MECS. Ensemble mean pattern looks robust for some seasonably chilly weather (at or below normal) after the rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro looks MUCH warmer than GFS for next weekend/early next week... It really pulls apart that midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm just going to ignore Day 9 and 10 on the Euro since it's a complete change from all previous runs and, as of yet, has not support on that look. I'll chalk it up to the Euro's persistent overamplification bias in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Euro looks MUCH warmer than GFS for next weekend/early next week... It really pulls apart that midweek storm. it looks better than it has for the early week crap event.. close to spitting out some mixed precip in the area now. but the late week cold shot is super transient then mild again. looks like a motherlode of cold at 240 into the northern plains though with a sys well to our nw (like the upper lakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 it looks better than it has for the early week crap event.. close to spitting out some mixed precip in the area now. Wunderground weenie maps have a little snow north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho That rex block look in the Pacific has been hinted at a bit for a couple days now. The positive heights in the north Pac I think is the durable feature. The -NAO depicted there looks transient to me and I suspect the Day 11-15 Euro would park the PV back near Baffin Island again if I had to extrapolate. I don't buy this wound up Upper Midwest low on Day 9-10...it's a total change from the persistence that both the Euro and GFS have been showing for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 some significant positive height anomolies just se of greenland and same in GOA at 240 tho Yes, and the ridge starts pushing into se greenland at 192. If you extrapolate the 240hr euro, things are looking pretty good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the new euro weeklies came out last night. Anyone hear anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the new euro weeklies came out last night. Anyone hear anything? They're warm throughout the central and eastern U.S. New England turns cooler in the 12-18 day, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 They're warm throughout the central and eastern U.S. New England turns cooler in the 12-18 day, but that's it. warm through when? how far do they run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 warm through when? how far do they run? I think they run 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 warm through when? how far do they run? I think they run 4 weeks. It runs 32 days (week 4 is the 26-32 day... week 1 is the 5-11 day). Personally, I think anything past week two is pure bunk unless the pattern is persistent. Week two even pushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 question, first I read that hm says the pattern is in the process of changing, then here the euro weeklies are warm. Which is accurrate?? There are so many contradicting posts here, how is one to get an accurrate assessment of what is going on?? The event monday comes and goes and so does the cold air. Gfs looks cold in the long run and shows a couple of storms. The euro shows a storm in the midwest that someone doubts given previous runs. I really dont know what to believe. Sorry, but its confusing. I wish there was some consistency in what is posted. Not trying to be nasty, just frustrated. Thaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It runs 32 days (week 4 is the 26-32 day... week 1 is the 5-11 day). Personally, I think anything past week two is pure bunk unless the pattern is persistent. Week two even pushes it. Got it thanks, it is a good thing it is bunk or we would be screwed and JI would be in here in a minute screaming winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 question, first I read that hm says the pattern is in the process of changing, then here the euro weeklies are warm. Which is accurrate?? HM is not a model. The Euro is a model - IMHO you cannot compare the two. A computer doesn't know how to look at trends and the overall pattern. Plus, a model is only one model. It could be that neither are accurate. Not a great question IMO just because you are under the assumption that one has to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern is changing. I suppose it's not locked in stone that the pattern will change indefinitely (i.e., that it won't switch back to crap). It's certainly possible that even with the pattern change we still end up on the positive side of normal for the next few weeks. I think we probably end up near normal or slightly below from the 15-31st based on the progs of that time period and the larger factors at play that seem to favor a trough in the eastern CONUS (MJO, strat warming driving a -AO), but that's still a long ways off and things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's all still heavy speculation that the second half of winter is going to be much better than the first. I don't think it's necessarily meaningless that something looks warm throughout tho of course who believes a model at 3 weeks uot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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