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January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion


PhineasC

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Per the GFS last few runs, looks like the cold air might catch up with the precip as the low is departing late Thursday...have to watch future runs but could end as snow, especially west of I-95. As for the possible minor front running event, I would be interested in what the 12z Gfs shows and see if there is any other collaboration, but If anything occurs it would be light and with very marginal temps, probably not looking at any accumulations. My guess is that it will stay south and be weaker than the 6z GFS is showing.

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Jackpot, Westminster.

And, CAPE, I am not one who has been on every day complaining about lack of snow. It is what it is, as it were. No need to project stuff on me that isn't there.

I lived in Memphis from 1998 to summer of 2009. I know from winters with little to no snow.

Where in Memphis did you live? My aunt lives in Cordova and my grandparents in Germantown for a while before their deaths... my wife and I lived over in Little Rock and Conway for ~5 years.

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Where in Memphis did you live? My aunt lives in Cordova and my grandparents in Germantown for a while before their deaths... my wife and I lived over in Little Rock and Conway for ~5 years.

Kevin: I was in East Memphis, just into the city, near the Germantown line. I grew up in SW and Central Ohio in the 70s and 80s, and while I never saw storms there like we saw here in Baltimore in 09/10, I did get used to snow. 6" - 8" inch storms were certainly gettable when I was a kid.

As a result, Memphis winters were a shock. They were forever just on the warm side of any chance of snow, it would be 34 and raining and 30 miles north 32 and snowing, perpetually. That was just the climate there. If I saw one genuine 1" - 2" snowfall a winter, that was lucky. Memphis got more ice. Memphis couldn't buy snow even when Little Rock was cashing in.

At any rate, moving back to a snow chance area like the MA has been awfully fun. But my memories of crap winters in Memphis have made this one at least easier to take, at least for me.

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Per the GFS last few runs, looks like the cold air might catch up with the precip as the low is departing late Thursday...have to watch future runs but could end as snow, especially west of I-95. As for the possible minor front running event, I would be interested in what the 12z Gfs shows and see if there is any other collaboration, but If anything occurs it would be light and with very marginal temps, probably not looking at any accumulations. My guess is that it will stay south and be weaker than the 6z GFS is showing.

Yeah, hard to believe the 06z is right. Once again it's different than what any if not most models are showing. It can happen, we'll have to keep following it, but I'm leaning towards a non-event mainly.

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Yup. Hard not to be. Hell, most of us would just like something, anything, to track. I miss at least having something to look at and think about in terms of threats. It has been boring.

Are you ready to punt any slop Monday? I ask because I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that's coming north a little.

Although it wouldn't be huge, it might be something.

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Are you ready to punt any slop Monday? I ask because I wonder how many (besides me) are looking at the 12z gfs and wondering if that's coming north a little.

Although it wouldn't be huge, it might be something.

it looks south of 6z to me?

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12z doesnt show anything N of the VA/NC border and that is being generous

looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot.

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looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot.

If it's not gonna snow, I'll take warmer temps.

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looks like either way we'd have trouble. the high is not strong and the storm is not strong. if the storm is stronger it will be warmer. i guess there's a happy middle ground that gives something but that seems like a long shot.

Maybe we can get enough warming to get severe for next week's rain event!

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If it's not gonna snow, I'll take warmer temps.

Yeah this one, while it still needs watching, is a very low threat. The main time frame has been and will continue to be 1/10-15. This was the period I highlighted back in the autumn. New GFS run gets interesting Jan 12-14 and is a threat for a coastal storm.

A series of clippers / cold shots on this run with no sign of a torch. Next threat window is of course...Jan 20-25, lol.

As I said last week, torch fail...

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Well that was fun - I blame HM for mentioning it :devilsmiley:

Haha! The s/w makes "landfall" at 00z. Perhaps land sampling will offer a different scenario....nah. Lol

It is all about the trough split (some backs SW due to inertia and some comes eastward). If a healthier s/w comes eastward, more moisture will come northward.

Just keep an eye on it, even though it's likely no big deal.

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