Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? not really.. maybe Saturday ... tries to develop a wave as the front passes.. you know how that goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 that should be next saturday.. not this one. and it does not look terribly amazing at 240 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 End of the run still isn't bad at all. Just a reasonable move south with the pv in canada and the nao goes negative. Baby steps in the right direction for the last 5 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. It (and the MJO) are the new ENSO for mid-range predictions for sensible tropospheric wx. Lots of research going into both and those on the periphery of professional forecasting (read: weenies and enthusiasts) take an interest and talk about them a bunch hence the heightened awareness in that community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 comparing Euro's 12z 10 day from yesterday and today's run on Day 9 = meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. (ducks for cover) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. From a statistical point of view, pretty hard to imagine getting the least snowiest winter on record only two years after the snowiest winter on record. But of course 95-96 was the previous winner and then 97-98 blew chunks, so I guess not unprecedented. I don't think we're in that ballpark yet. Only takes one not unreasonable fluke to get us to 50% of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 From a statistical point of view, pretty hard to imagine getting the least snowiest winter on record only two years after the snowiest winter on record. But of course 95-96 was the previous winner and then 97-98 blew chunks, so I guess not unprecedented. I don't think we're in that ballpark yet. Only takes one not unreasonable fluke to get us to 50% of climo. trust me, if any area could do it, we can.....we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On the lower 50% side of snow, yes. Least snowiest? Hmmm.....I guess it's possible but I would argue against it at this point in the season. If this was Feb 15th and the models kept showing this crap then yes, we'd be in bad shape. Strong Nina's are usually the kiss of death for the seond half of winter. This Nina is will be mod at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. (ducks for cover) The statistically based AO forecasts bug me because it seems the meanings are held to such a high standard even without direct analysis of the global state. I don't see any evidence this winter turns out below average in snowfall anywhere in the MA, I honestly have no personal desire factored into my analysis either. There is no chance I am taken seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). So in order words if we don't see snow until February, there is still a chance for more snow to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On the lower 50% side of snow, yes. Least snowiest? Hmmm.....I guess it's possible but I would argue against it at this point in the season. If this was Feb 15th and the models kept showing this crap then yes, we'd be in bad shape. Strong Nina's are usually the kiss of death for the seond half of winter. This Nina is will be mod at best. mod ninas actually seem to be a bit backloaded at dc at least.. more 3"+ snows in march than any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 comparing Euro's 12z 10 day from yesterday and today's run on Day 9 = meh Compare the Euro's 12z 9 day from Dec 27 to its own initialization for today's 12z run for the real meh. Sooner or later it will get a forecast right beyond 4 days and everybody will get to yell about how good it is. Until then, I think I'll treat its forecasts beyond 4 with a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 mod ninas actually seem to be a bit backloaded at dc at least.. more 3"+ snows in march than any other month. That wouldn't surprise me at all this year either. When I dug into early season +AO/NAO stuff, the strong + signal early broke down during Jan & Feb and there were multiple March and Aprils with a cold signal. I discounted it during my research because I was really only looking at Jan / Feb at the time and who cares about april -ao/nao arond here? I'll go back to the data and see what it shows for March. It's been a while since we've had a good March. I remember quite a bit of snow on the ground in March of 03. That was one of the more profound snowpack duration years of late and the last time I remember snow on the ground for an extended period during March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So in order words if we don't see snow until February, there is still a chance for more snow to follow Not just snow, but more than two feet of snow in each season. Moreover, there were seven storms from February 13th forward in 1914 and six storms from February 13th forward in 1960. I don't believe that La Niñas occurred in either 1913-1914 or 1959-1960, but still quite extraordinary late season snow, especially since the snow machine turned on the exact same day after more than 80% of the meteorological winter was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL at people thinking we have it bad Information from the Minnesota State Climatology Office, which puts this warm spell into perspective:"There has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota during the first week of January is 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on January 5 is 57 degrees, recorded at Crookston in 1902. Reaching 60 degrees ANY time ANYWHERE in January is quite rare, occurring in only 10 years of the 120 year modern record. The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo." Current temp in Marshall, MN: 63° +40 departure on the high today in Aberdeen, SD, setting an all-time January record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That wouldn't surprise me at all this year either. When I dug into early season +AO/NAO stuff, the strong + signal early broke down during Jan & Feb and there were multiple March and Aprils with a cold signal. I discounted it during my research because I was really only looking at Jan / Feb at the time and who cares about april -ao/nao arond here? I'll go back to the data and see what it shows for March. It's been a while since we've had a good March. I remember quite a bit of snow on the ground in March of 03. That was one of the more profound snowpack duration years of late and the last time I remember snow on the ground for an extended period during March. Heck yeah. 02-03 probably had one of the best combinations of cold and snow of any winter. I know that at BWI it was the 2nd (now 3rd) snowiest winter and 8th coldest on record, with not even one 60 degree day in DJF, and several single digit and lots of teen nights. The snow cover from PDII took about a month to totally melt away at least around my area, and apart from a few weeks in late Jan and December, I think most of the winter had snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). 59-60 was an amazing backloaded winter from what I've read, with that March being by far the coldest on record in BWI, including a Cat 4 KU storm. It set the stage for the snowy 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HM FOR PRESIDENT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HM FOR PRESIDENT! LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 <OT>Steroids took care of his a long time ago.</OT> I just had a mental image of Ian kicking him in the junk over and over again, sped up and to the Benny Hill theme song with JB just standing there laughing at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. It feels like that is going to be what gets us eventually. No strong teleconnection signals this year (at least not yet anyway). Just glimpses of patterns that "could possibly but probably not" give us snow. It the MA's primetime for climo so we have that going for us. I guess we'll see what evolves by the weekend. A 1-3" event would feel like snowmageddon around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I've been watching next week for signs of some iciness before the rain gets in here. Models haven't agreed yet, but with some opportune timing it is the part of the season that can yield that pretty readily in the valleys N/W.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). WHOOP THERE IT IS !!!! This winter will be a rocking this feb baby ! Been tranquil too long . Just like 1988 /1989 winter was here in Norfolk Va. Nothing at all till last days of january and then WHOOP THERE IT IS. (WAS) We rocked two back to back weekend whoppers 15 inches and 9.9 inches then big ice storm in march then close to 2 inches in april. all this in the city by the bay and ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. I am Weenie so of course I agree... but what you say makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. lol..are you kidding me? Text book snow and ice? Dont you need cold? anyway...the models have incredible agreement on this event right now which means it will be nothing like the models currently have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree with HM. Early next week may be something to watch..even if it is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 177-183hr out GFS 00z would be nice if there were only cold air. What am I talking about. This is over a week away. Lol , if it were only 72 hours out with cold air to work with. Lol because college starts again on the 9th for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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