Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. NAO NAO NAO NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. NAO, AO, then PNA. I'm not sure MJO can be included in the same subgroup as the rest, for various reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. AO needs to go negative 1st to push the cold the air out of the arctic. Then the NAO needs to dive to get the high latitude blocking. PNA, MJO, Rosby wave trains, etc. etc. comes after in really no practical order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, the NAM is getting more interesting, whatever that's worth. Tad colder and wetter Sun night/Mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree with HM. Early next week may be something to watch..even if it is very light. LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. The 06Z GFS seems to want to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Whar exactly is the 6z gfs showing, rain or snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 lol..are you kidding me? Text book snow and ice? Dont you need cold? anyway...the models have incredible agreement on this event right now which means it will be nothing like the models currently have LOL Can't you read? "Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on." And yes, I agree about next week and the model comment...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 7-8 day range has me a little interested (Maybe more so 40 North though) after the cut off swings through. Seems that the models are slowing down the extension of the PV allowing the cutoff to reach around a 50/50 position before it swings the PV through. The models seem to be now showing some bagginess down the East Coast as well. I wonder what a little energy rounding the base of the PV might accomplish in the setup showing on the models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 HM, thanks for the heads up on at least the possibility of something early next week. It doesn't come together on the 0z overnite (from my quick glance), but CAPE's most favorite model run the 6z does try to put something frozen in here on Tuesday, and the clown maps give us the poss of an inch or two or so on Tuesday. That's a lot more fun for a few hours than we have gotten most of this season so far. I guess something to check back in on at 12z. I am also guessing the Euro didn't have it either overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. I could see this happening, especially with the very inconsistent medium range solutions. Unless we have a solid -NAO / classic 50-50 low going on, anything that can potentially bring wintry weather to the Mid-Atlantic will probably slowly come into focus during the short-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Whar exactly is the 6z gfs showing, rain or snow??? Surface looks a little iffy on the Southern part of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It appears to be a snow event, correct???? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It appears to be a snow event, correct???? Thanks. 540 line and 0 degree 850 line are south, but surface temps at BWI are at about 34-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. Looking at the soundings for this run you would probably be mostly if not all snow for your location. Inch, maybe 2? Edit: Looked over the soundings again. Surface is a little warm. You might eek out an inch if the intensity of the precip is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thank you for your reply and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this going to verify, in anyone's opinion?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol It was just a heads up; I have no idea if this will work out next week. The problem is: I have nothing to base anything on outside of timing of s/w and model trends. There aren't any larger teleconnections that would suggest something should or should not happen. The good news is that the displacement of the Asian Vortex will be the force the flips the WPO/EPO and it is happening in the short-range. Just run a GFS loop of the N PAC. The pattern is in the process of flipping there as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this going to verify, in anyone's opinion?? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks Ellinwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Wow...Hm may be right lol We're going to get this one... I can feel the optimism...and the pattern looks better after that cutoff low...6z run never lies...those 300hr maps although fantasy look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have already looked at the gfs. Is it showing rain or snow??? Please clarify for me. Thank you After reading here there is some doubt, at least to me, about the tye of precip. hi! there are plenty of places you can go to find this type of information out on your own here are a few places for you too look: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KSBY - you can put in the airport code (KBWI, KIAD, KDCA) to find out what the GFS has for temps, precip amounts, and whether it is rain or snow http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm - where you can find clown maps for both NAM and GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html - model page, also where you can find snowfall maps for both NAM and GFS I hope that helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What Katie said. Also, if mdsnowlover read up in the thread, I had already mentioned the clown maps gave us an inch or two on that run. As always, taken with 1000 grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I could see this happening, especially with the very inconsistent medium range solutions. Unless we have a solid -NAO / classic 50-50 low going on, anything that can potentially bring wintry weather to the Mid-Atlantic will probably slowly come into focus during the short-range. that's what I was thinking too hope you're right about next week; 6Z GFS makes you look like a genious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What Katie said. Also, if mdsnowlover read up in the thread, I had already mentioned the clown maps gave us an inch or two on that run. As always, taken with 1000 grains of salt. Definitely - I don't know what goes into making the snowfall maps for the models, but we have seen them be well over done in many cases. Here is HR84 from 06z GFS (snow shows up for a few hours after this one) edit to add: this is from the raleighwx website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks mapgirl!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Definitely - I don't know what goes into making the snowfall maps for the models, but we have seen them be well over done in many cases. Here is HR84 from 06z GFS (snow shows up for a few hours after this one) edit to add: this is from the raleighwx website I wonder how many pixels that will add to the snowcover map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm going on record in saying I don't think we should punt this weekend event. Not that that means anything to anyone, but I'm remaining optimistic this time. A 12z Euro/18z GFS blend would be nice. The Euro track and strength shifted slightly south and colder to the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro just yesterday morning had a decent snow for parts of the area for this time frame. I am going to continue to bump my own posts in case it actually works out. Take that METS! I hope everyone knows that I'm only joking. Happy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. Relax dude...just having a little fun with you. I even winked. You sort of asked for a little ribbing when after your analysis you whined about it being new way of getting jobbed out of snow this winter. just a bit weenie-ish. But hey, if you think I am a dick, you are entitled to your opinion. Throwing personal insults around because you are testy about not getting snow is a little childish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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