Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lets get back on the topic here. don't forget we have a banter thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28325-2011-winter-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow I agree with you there... I am reluctant to even check the 12z gfs. I am on the verge already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 January 1977 was remarkably cold in DC, with an average temperature of 25.4 degrees, ranking it as the sixth coldest month ever -- and the coldest since January 1940. However, December 1976 (average temperature of 35.5) and February 1977 (average temperature of 38.8) weren't all that bad. The most remarkable thing about January 1977 was that, for 20 consecutive days, the temperature never got into the 40s, with the high temperature range being 18-39 and the low temperature range being 2-27 during that period (mean of 23.6). P.S. More relevant to this topic, AccuWeather currently shows an East Coast snowstorm on Martin Luther King Day, January 16. You're right: Following a cool autumn, the intense cold started in late December and ran through early February. January was the standout month. The mean average for DJF combined, east of the Mississippi, was mostly in the -6F to -8F range. The winters of 1917-18 and 1976-77 are generally considered a tie for the coldest winters ever recorded in the Eastern U.S. A full write-up from NOAA, written in November 1977 may be of interest to mets here (especially to compare forecasting then vs. today.) http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No4/1977v002no04-Wagner.pdf Tim in ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. im not sure but i like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. 384 hr gfs so I would'nt worry about that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. You mean this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. It keeps showing different variations of ridging in AK and bering sea and ridging trying to break out around greenland (east based mostly). It has been consistent in many ways. PV around the Hudson Bay area and different variations of cross polar flow. I'm a weenie but my confidence in an ok pattern at the very least setting up shop somewhere around mid month is gaining quite a bit. Whether it snows or not is another issue but we're likely going to have modeled threats to track in the near future. That's alot more fun than tracking a reprehensible pattern changing into a less deplorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It keeps showing different variations of ridging in AK and bering sea and ridging trying to break out around greenland (east based mostly). It has been consistent in many ways. PV around the Hudson Bay area and different variations of cross polar flow. I'm a weenie but my confidence in an ok pattern at the very least setting up shop somewhere around mid month is gaining quite a bit. Whether it snows or not is another issue but we're likely going to have modeled threats to track in the near future. That's alot more fun than tracking a reprehensible pattern changing into a less deplorable pattern. the ridging around/north of Greenland would be a nice feature that has been missing all winter and hopefully, that would hold and then press further south in the future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the ridging around/north of Greenland would be a nice feature that has been missing all winter and hopefully, that would hold and then press further south in the future runs Looks like it's trying right? I might be wrong about the ridging building in the bering sea on N but doesn't that help buckle the flow and enhance the PNA? Ridge in AK - trough off pac coast - ridge intermountain west - trough in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS ensemble mean looks pretty good in the mid and long range. A few days ago, it had the PV moving faster towards the west (i.e., over Hudson Bay) then it does now. Still is inching its way there though. Going to be tough to get a good coastal to work out for his until we can get a NAO sign change, but the pattern as advertised would be good for some clippers and overrunning events potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS MOS is like a +10 departure for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS MOS is like a +10 departure for the next week. one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming NO! Adam and HM gave me a 30 minute class this morning on SSW, so I could understand what all the hype was about. We need to dicuss it more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Enjoy it while you can. I have a feeling that instead of kicking people in the nuts, you'll be freezing yours off later this month into Feb. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 All models change so much from day to day, it always makes weather much more interesting. Some people get so angry over the models and I take the best of it and make it a learning experience. Patience to anyone that does not have it on getting the cold and snow! 2 more weeks or so there will be a post on a winter threat. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NO! Adam and HM gave me a 30 minute class this morning on SSW, so I could understand what all the hype was about. We need to dicuss it more now. File it under "things we talk about when the pattern sucks" #uselessinfo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 File it under "things we talk about when the pattern sucks" #uselessinfo But at least I understand it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Speaking of stratospheric warming, JB is twitting up a storm today about it meaning big cold for the NHEM troposphere. I suspect "NHEM troposphere" is fancy talk for I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Speaking of stratospheric warming, JB is twitting up a storm today about it meaning big cold for the NHEM troposphere. I suspect "NHEM troposphere" is fancy talk for I-95 corridor. lol.. probably. when i see this from him ... I am more meteorologist than weather nut now, because the warming at 10 mb blows me away the way a big snowstorm use too. Astounding ... I just want to respond, you're just a nut period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol.. probably. when i see this from him ... I am more meteorologist than weather nut now, because the warming at 10 mb blows me away the way a big snowstorm use too. Astounding ... I just want to respond, you're just a nut period. <OT>Steroids took care of his a long time ago.</OT> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. If we werent going to end up with the first half of winter totally sucking no one would be talking about it. I don't deny it's useful if you're someone like HM or Adam but why it's being mentioned on Twitter and Facebook is beyond me. Most of that audience doesnt even know the difference between a watch and a warning. Even as a weather enthusiast in the 99th percentile I'm not sure why I should care that much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. So, A robust next generation SSW event doesn't really have the framework for cloud convergence and immersion that the bleeding edge blogosphere has been beta testing with collaberation from the benchmark design pattern of the cross-platform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. Like we were saying...every season has a buzz word or term. Stratospheric warming is definitely this year's buzz term. I do find it interesting how it works, but we have to understand how/when it's able to propagate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? No, but it makes the rainstorm less intense, and the post-rain cold shot much more transient. Or at least, that's how I read it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Without looking at the wunderground maps, I'd say probably not. Maybe some lake-effect flurries after the big front goes through late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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