chris87 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Perhaps you, as a met, should not throw out such lines as "Get rid of it or improve it" when not knowing what goes into the model. This is especially true when you have a developer on the forum who is able to and does provide the correct information in addition to discussing some of the finer points and future plans. His tone is fine... he has addressed the depreciation of accuracy of the off-hour runs several times in this sub-forum and has dispelled the myth that the off-hour runs are garbage, with the stats to back it up. It's insulting to him and the other developers to have to repeatedly get these criticisms and false assumptions. ----- EDIT: Also, what dtk said above (he posted while I was writing) For how far NWP prediction has come in the past decade and for those of us who work to improve such models...its easy to shake off criticism from a weenie, but its sad coming from mets who don't understand how good they have it with our current NWP guidance. I'm sure other may feel the same, but one of my first memories about NWP was learning about the first attempt at a numerical forecast by Richardson in undergraduate Dynamics class....maybe I was humbled by that story and always learned to appreciate the sophistication that forecasters are provided now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I can go to any subforum I want, except NE. They threw rocks at me They have been fighting each other up there also. It's been great to see. The lack of snow is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The only thing I could think of when I saw Wes's post was FINISH HIM ... snowdude is a good guy though, so I don't wanna knock him too much He is but so is DTK and in this case he is the one I agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Bendy Mod can stay - Rib has to go. I will leave this subforum the next time DC gets 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Back to the subject at hand, intermediate models are decent if used properly. There. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Back to the subject at hand, intermediate models are decent if used properly. There. Okay then, group hug and back to complaining about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I will leave this subforum the next time DC gets 4 inches of snow. ugh, guess you will be around for a while then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GFS... crushing storms to the south in the long range? Oh and did you say the 6z GFS? If one is to attempt to interpret the models they should have an idea of the biases as well as the difficulties of resolving details in the long range, esp with changing patterns. I think maybe you had it right when you said you shouldnt discuss pattern changes What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. You are kind of a dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Man, you know it's a tough winter when red taggers are fighting each other. Not all created equal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing that you'd be interested in unless you like rain and then cold and then warm and then cold. I guess I read the last few model runs including the 6z GFS that CAPE made fun of me for mentioning okay then. Nothing to see in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ok so about the long range --> It seems possible that after the rain storm forecasted by GFS/EURO at the end of next week A) we get another lake effect/mountain event like we did earlier this week (for WV, PA, OH, NY) we get another shot of hopefully longer lasting cold air. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. You are kind of a dick. and let the melt downs begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Okay then, group hug and back to complaining about this winter. I still hold out hope that the big storm that gives us rain in about a week does something to the pattern. Ridging out west helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. If i recall correctly, CAPE when he posted at Eastern could be in the middle of a blizzard and complain about his snow rates only being 2" an hour and the back edge was coming faster then predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm a little disappointed in the overnight runs, was hoping to continue to see things develop, and while they didn't lose the pattern change by any means, they all seemed to weaken next week's cold shot a bit and weaken some of the positive signs (-EPO) that earlier runs were showing. This could just be some natural variability in the solutions, so don't get worried yet. I still think we have an above average chance of getting some snow (1" at least) during the cold blast late next week. Either through a clipper (most likely) or possibly a coastal if we can get a s/w in the northern stream to time itself right and come down through the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. 6z GFS hints at that coastal idea Day 9-10, but has it OTS (a more likely solution anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 can you imagine what the Board would be like if there were no subforums? actually, I sort of like the fact we are all in the same boat...no one to hate, only love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This is encouraging. Very encouraging actually. NAO MRF forecast not as rosey but an overall neutral look is good enough I guess. The MRF AO forecast has consistently gotten better and better each day. Now we have consensus for a -AO by mid month. Let the trough and cold air set up and then we'll see what kind of energy we can get tracking around it. Looking more and more likely that our first accum snow of the year is on the near horizon. I just hope it's not on the SNO storm days. I'll have to use ignore for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm a little disappointed in the overnight runs, was hoping to continue to see things develop, and while they didn't lose the pattern change by any means, they all seemed to weaken next week's cold shot a bit and weaken some of the positive signs (-EPO) that earlier runs were showing. This could just be some natural variability in the solutions, so don't get worried yet. I still think we have an above average chance of getting some snow (1" at least) during the cold blast late next week. Either through a clipper (most likely) or possibly a coastal if we can get a s/w in the northern stream to time itself right and come down through the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. 6z GFS hints at that coastal idea Day 9-10, but has it OTS (a more likely solution anyway). I mentioned it before and last night's clipper supports my thought that this year's event won't be seen in the MR and will just sort of show up on the models <72 hrs in advance NINAs that act like NINOs are too complicated, even for the computers I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Anyone else having trouble viewing the NCEP site? Been down all day for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow We still have one of the more civilized subs on the board. I don't hit the SE too much. I imagine they're probably the best because their expectations should be the lowest. Maybe the subforum suckometer is tied to climo snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow isn't that the textbook definition for the difference between the MA and NE? they get the pattern and it snows, we get it and it still won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS seems (as of late) a little more aggressive with the -AO, while the Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at a weak east-based -NAO around Day 9-10 the last couple runs. I'll take both please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't want to continue arguing cause it is a useless thing to argue over. You're right, I shouldn't have used terms like "get rid of it." I'm just frustrated, about the 06z being wrong often, just based off when I look at that run and based off my experience. I apologize for not knowing more, but being attacked in that tone from another met is wrong, and I haven't felt that attacked since way back in the early years of easternuswx in OFF TOPIC before we started cracking down on stuff like that. Mets arguing like that makes the board look bad, granted me saying that the 06z is horrible and all probably made us look bad too, but I'm not as knowledgable as other mets and don't understand everything. I'll be honest about that and I shouldn't be harassed because I don't understand. If it's the words I used like "horrible" and "get rid of" bothered you then that's all you had to say instead of all the other stuff. Attacks like these just turn me away from the board, and I've always felt welcome here. I'm not on this board all day long and obviously don't post much so I haven't seen other peoples posts and research about the models lately. And Wes, I understand your response and I really respect you as a met and you can agree with whoever you want. I was just stating my reason for throwing those words out. I guess the combination of a sucky winter, a horrible day so far at work, and things like that influenced my posts. And thanks Mapgirl for your response about me. I didn't try to start anything or insult anyone. Now, moving on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. Very good question, and one I've often wondered about. Of course, everyone's happy and getting along when it's snowing or we know snow is coming. But that still doesn't excuse a lack of common courtesy in other times. And that's your life lesson for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Very good question, and one I've often wondered about. Of course, everyone's happy and getting along when it's snowing or we know snow is coming. But that still doesn't excuse a lack of common courtesy in other times. And that's your life lesson for the day. egos.. lots of egos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 isn't that the textbook definition for the difference between the MA and NE? they get the pattern and it snows, we get it and it still won't There will be some new problem. Probably SE ridge or something. Maybe a new acronym from the Indian Ocean that HM just discovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't want to continue arguing cause it is a useless thing to argue over. You're right, I shouldn't have used terms like "get rid of it." I'm just frustrated, about the 06z being wrong often, just based off when I look at that run and based off my experience. I apologize for not knowing more, but being attacked in that tone from another met is wrong, and I haven't felt that attacked since way back in the early years of easternuswx in OFF TOPIC before we started cracking down on stuff like that. Mets arguing like that makes the board look bad, granted me saying that the 06z is horrible and all probably made us look bad too, but I'm not as knowledgable as other mets and don't understand everything. I'll be honest about that and I shouldn't be harassed because I don't understand. If it's the words I used like "horrible" and "get rid of" bothered you then that's all you had to say instead of all the other stuff. Attacks like these just turn me away from the board, and I've always felt welcome here. I'm not on this board all day long and obviously don't post much so I haven't seen other peoples posts and research about the models lately. And Wes, I understand your response and I really respect you as a met and you can agree with whoever you want. I was just stating my reason for throwing those words out. I guess the combination of a sucky winter, a horrible day so far at work, and things like that influenced my posts. And thanks Mapgirl for your response about me. I didn't try to start anything or insult anyone. Now, moving on.... All good! I think at this point we are all frustrated with how this winter has been thus far. We (the MA subforum) have a lot of really good mets, who each bring a little something different to the table so when the discussion is good... it is really good. My comments were trying to make light of the situation, so it didn't turn out into an all out met war. We don't need that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 you attacked his work--he works for NCEP--and you did so with baseless criticism and as a fellow red-tagger. just learn from it and move on. and that helps the situation immensely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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