Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 mod ninas actually seem to be a bit backloaded at dc at least.. more 3"+ snows in march than any other month. That wouldn't surprise me at all this year either. When I dug into early season +AO/NAO stuff, the strong + signal early broke down during Jan & Feb and there were multiple March and Aprils with a cold signal. I discounted it during my research because I was really only looking at Jan / Feb at the time and who cares about april -ao/nao arond here? I'll go back to the data and see what it shows for March. It's been a while since we've had a good March. I remember quite a bit of snow on the ground in March of 03. That was one of the more profound snowpack duration years of late and the last time I remember snow on the ground for an extended period during March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So in order words if we don't see snow until February, there is still a chance for more snow to follow Not just snow, but more than two feet of snow in each season. Moreover, there were seven storms from February 13th forward in 1914 and six storms from February 13th forward in 1960. I don't believe that La Niñas occurred in either 1913-1914 or 1959-1960, but still quite extraordinary late season snow, especially since the snow machine turned on the exact same day after more than 80% of the meteorological winter was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL at people thinking we have it bad Information from the Minnesota State Climatology Office, which puts this warm spell into perspective:"There has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota during the first week of January is 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on January 5 is 57 degrees, recorded at Crookston in 1902. Reaching 60 degrees ANY time ANYWHERE in January is quite rare, occurring in only 10 years of the 120 year modern record. The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo." Current temp in Marshall, MN: 63° +40 departure on the high today in Aberdeen, SD, setting an all-time January record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That wouldn't surprise me at all this year either. When I dug into early season +AO/NAO stuff, the strong + signal early broke down during Jan & Feb and there were multiple March and Aprils with a cold signal. I discounted it during my research because I was really only looking at Jan / Feb at the time and who cares about april -ao/nao arond here? I'll go back to the data and see what it shows for March. It's been a while since we've had a good March. I remember quite a bit of snow on the ground in March of 03. That was one of the more profound snowpack duration years of late and the last time I remember snow on the ground for an extended period during March. Heck yeah. 02-03 probably had one of the best combinations of cold and snow of any winter. I know that at BWI it was the 2nd (now 3rd) snowiest winter and 8th coldest on record, with not even one 60 degree day in DJF, and several single digit and lots of teen nights. The snow cover from PDII took about a month to totally melt away at least around my area, and apart from a few weeks in late Jan and December, I think most of the winter had snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). 59-60 was an amazing backloaded winter from what I've read, with that March being by far the coldest on record in BWI, including a Cat 4 KU storm. It set the stage for the snowy 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HM FOR PRESIDENT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HM FOR PRESIDENT! LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 <OT>Steroids took care of his a long time ago.</OT> I just had a mental image of Ian kicking him in the junk over and over again, sped up and to the Benny Hill theme song with JB just standing there laughing at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL... well it is a low threat and certainly not on all the models so just cautiously sit back and watch. Also, if you think the models are correct now with the evolution of the STJ low and how that interacts with a northern stream s/w, you're in trouble. Unfortunately, anticipating how the models will change is close to impossible at this point since it is all sensitive to timing. It feels like that is going to be what gets us eventually. No strong teleconnection signals this year (at least not yet anyway). Just glimpses of patterns that "could possibly but probably not" give us snow. It the MA's primetime for climo so we have that going for us. I guess we'll see what evolves by the weekend. A 1-3" event would feel like snowmageddon around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I've been watching next week for signs of some iciness before the rain gets in here. Models haven't agreed yet, but with some opportune timing it is the part of the season that can yield that pretty readily in the valleys N/W.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). WHOOP THERE IT IS !!!! This winter will be a rocking this feb baby ! Been tranquil too long . Just like 1988 /1989 winter was here in Norfolk Va. Nothing at all till last days of january and then WHOOP THERE IT IS. (WAS) We rocked two back to back weekend whoppers 15 inches and 9.9 inches then big ice storm in march then close to 2 inches in april. all this in the city by the bay and ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. I am Weenie so of course I agree... but what you say makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Early next week is almost a threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Initially, the placement of features looks textbook for a Mid Atlantic snow/ice. Obviously the speed of the moisture and amount of cold air are all issues but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. lol..are you kidding me? Text book snow and ice? Dont you need cold? anyway...the models have incredible agreement on this event right now which means it will be nothing like the models currently have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree with HM. Early next week may be something to watch..even if it is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 177-183hr out GFS 00z would be nice if there were only cold air. What am I talking about. This is over a week away. Lol , if it were only 72 hours out with cold air to work with. Lol because college starts again on the 9th for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 you know it's bad when mets outside the region start trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 First HM and then Coastal? That's more encouraging than gfs, euro, AND nam consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 and yeah. .i see the overrunning potential and the marginal cold but im cynical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 you know it's bad when mets outside the region start trolling us I always thought having outsider mets posting here is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 When Wes likes the chances then i will start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 When Wes likes the chances then i will start getting excited. I'd imagine he would ask where the cold air is...maybe the northern branch could come in quicker than is currently depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 and yeah. .i see the overrunning potential and the marginal cold but im cynical Well I just meant something to watch. I wouldn't have any excitement right now, other than it could be like a break off piece of moisture driven by WAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It would be nice if the low didn't slide off the coast to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. As Yogi said, it ain't over til......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 18z ind. members show a wee bit of promise as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This might be a winter where some people spend so much time looking for the perfect pattern down the road they horribly mis-forecast a successful fluke. Happened to several folks last winter with the psuhoffman storm and in 2006 with the big coastal storm. Just to add to this post...........I think I like the flukes more than the perfect storms. I know everyone loves the 5 day modeled, 20 inch snow, and they are great. But, a fluke event can bring an excitement that's hard to top. Tuesday's fluke LE snow streamer here in Winchester was one of those. I've lived here for four years, and I've never seen us get accumulating snow in that setup. It was only an inch or two, depending upon how lucky you were, but it was a thrill. It only lasted a couple of hours, but it really put on a show for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well I just meant something to watch. I wouldn't have any excitement right now, other than it could be like a break off piece of moisture driven by WAA aloft. i hear ya.. my other comment was in jest. i like you and hm much better than that orh guy. we are into the time where it's easier to get wintry precip without things being ideal in all senses. wouldnt take a lot of change.. but given that we're in mild stretch up ahead it's hard to have too much faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I did want to ask a question. Storm potential related. In the grand scheme of things, how would some of you more knowledgeable folks rank the indices.....MJO, PNA, NAO, AO? It would seem the forecasts for those are going our way with maybe the exception of the PNA. Just wondering what anyone thought about the importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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