mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming NO! Adam and HM gave me a 30 minute class this morning on SSW, so I could understand what all the hype was about. We need to dicuss it more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Enjoy it while you can. I have a feeling that instead of kicking people in the nuts, you'll be freezing yours off later this month into Feb. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 All models change so much from day to day, it always makes weather much more interesting. Some people get so angry over the models and I take the best of it and make it a learning experience. Patience to anyone that does not have it on getting the cold and snow! 2 more weeks or so there will be a post on a winter threat. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NO! Adam and HM gave me a 30 minute class this morning on SSW, so I could understand what all the hype was about. We need to dicuss it more now. File it under "things we talk about when the pattern sucks" #uselessinfo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 File it under "things we talk about when the pattern sucks" #uselessinfo But at least I understand it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Speaking of stratospheric warming, JB is twitting up a storm today about it meaning big cold for the NHEM troposphere. I suspect "NHEM troposphere" is fancy talk for I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Speaking of stratospheric warming, JB is twitting up a storm today about it meaning big cold for the NHEM troposphere. I suspect "NHEM troposphere" is fancy talk for I-95 corridor. lol.. probably. when i see this from him ... I am more meteorologist than weather nut now, because the warming at 10 mb blows me away the way a big snowstorm use too. Astounding ... I just want to respond, you're just a nut period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol.. probably. when i see this from him ... I am more meteorologist than weather nut now, because the warming at 10 mb blows me away the way a big snowstorm use too. Astounding ... I just want to respond, you're just a nut period. <OT>Steroids took care of his a long time ago.</OT> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. If we werent going to end up with the first half of winter totally sucking no one would be talking about it. I don't deny it's useful if you're someone like HM or Adam but why it's being mentioned on Twitter and Facebook is beyond me. Most of that audience doesnt even know the difference between a watch and a warning. Even as a weather enthusiast in the 99th percentile I'm not sure why I should care that much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. So, A robust next generation SSW event doesn't really have the framework for cloud convergence and immersion that the bleeding edge blogosphere has been beta testing with collaberation from the benchmark design pattern of the cross-platform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's exactly what it is. There is merit to looking to the stratosphere for signs in the medium range, but people are blowing it way out of proportion this year without understanding the underlying mechanisms. Like we were saying...every season has a buzz word or term. Stratospheric warming is definitely this year's buzz term. I do find it interesting how it works, but we have to understand how/when it's able to propagate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? No, but it makes the rainstorm less intense, and the post-rain cold shot much more transient. Or at least, that's how I read it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Without looking at the wunderground maps, I'd say probably not. Maybe some lake-effect flurries after the big front goes through late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 does euro show snow in the next 240 hours? not really.. maybe Saturday ... tries to develop a wave as the front passes.. you know how that goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 that should be next saturday.. not this one. and it does not look terribly amazing at 240 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 End of the run still isn't bad at all. Just a reasonable move south with the pv in canada and the nao goes negative. Baby steps in the right direction for the last 5 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't argue with ssw affecting teleconnections and large scale patterns but why is it such a buzzword now? What happened? Is it really that big of a deal? I know enough about it now to understand how it affects the PV and weather around the pole. That part makes sense. Is the big buzz about ssw and now having the ability to predict big EC cold well in advance now? Seems blown out of proportion to me. Maybe everybody is jumping on it because it sounds cool. Just like all those "new and cool words" invented during the tech boom. It (and the MJO) are the new ENSO for mid-range predictions for sensible tropospheric wx. Lots of research going into both and those on the periphery of professional forecasting (read: weenies and enthusiasts) take an interest and talk about them a bunch hence the heightened awareness in that community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 comparing Euro's 12z 10 day from yesterday and today's run on Day 9 = meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. (ducks for cover) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. From a statistical point of view, pretty hard to imagine getting the least snowiest winter on record only two years after the snowiest winter on record. But of course 95-96 was the previous winner and then 97-98 blew chunks, so I guess not unprecedented. I don't think we're in that ballpark yet. Only takes one not unreasonable fluke to get us to 50% of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 From a statistical point of view, pretty hard to imagine getting the least snowiest winter on record only two years after the snowiest winter on record. But of course 95-96 was the previous winner and then 97-98 blew chunks, so I guess not unprecedented. I don't think we're in that ballpark yet. Only takes one not unreasonable fluke to get us to 50% of climo. trust me, if any area could do it, we can.....we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On the lower 50% side of snow, yes. Least snowiest? Hmmm.....I guess it's possible but I would argue against it at this point in the season. If this was Feb 15th and the models kept showing this crap then yes, we'd be in bad shape. Strong Nina's are usually the kiss of death for the seond half of winter. This Nina is will be mod at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I know you'll all laugh at me, but I still think we have a chance at the least snowiest winter ever at BWI. We need a major pattern change- transitioning from "total crap" to "slightly better than crap" doesn't count. (ducks for cover) The statistically based AO forecasts bug me because it seems the meanings are held to such a high standard even without direct analysis of the global state. I don't see any evidence this winter turns out below average in snowfall anywhere in the MA, I honestly have no personal desire factored into my analysis either. There is no chance I am taken seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'd like to know what the latest date for first accumulating snow at DCA and BWI is in a winter season. I'm sure its probably February sometime for both locations? I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't have BWI handy, but the latest date for the first measurable snow at DCA is February 23, 1973, when a whopping 0.1 inches fell. That was the only measurable snow that season. However, here is a rather remarkable fact that will gladden snow lovers' hearts: Prior to the 1972-1973 season, the latest date for the first measurable snow in DC was a dead heat between 1913-1914 and 1959-1960, with the first snow being recorded in two-day storms that encompassed February 13th-14th in both seasons. In both seasons, there was major snow from then on, with 28.6 inches recorded in February/March 1914 (9.3/19.3) and 24.3 inches recorded in February/March 1960 (7.2/17.1). So in order words if we don't see snow until February, there is still a chance for more snow to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On the lower 50% side of snow, yes. Least snowiest? Hmmm.....I guess it's possible but I would argue against it at this point in the season. If this was Feb 15th and the models kept showing this crap then yes, we'd be in bad shape. Strong Nina's are usually the kiss of death for the seond half of winter. This Nina is will be mod at best. mod ninas actually seem to be a bit backloaded at dc at least.. more 3"+ snows in march than any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 comparing Euro's 12z 10 day from yesterday and today's run on Day 9 = meh Compare the Euro's 12z 9 day from Dec 27 to its own initialization for today's 12z run for the real meh. Sooner or later it will get a forecast right beyond 4 days and everybody will get to yell about how good it is. Until then, I think I'll treat its forecasts beyond 4 with a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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