Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. If i recall correctly, CAPE when he posted at Eastern could be in the middle of a blizzard and complain about his snow rates only being 2" an hour and the back edge was coming faster then predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm a little disappointed in the overnight runs, was hoping to continue to see things develop, and while they didn't lose the pattern change by any means, they all seemed to weaken next week's cold shot a bit and weaken some of the positive signs (-EPO) that earlier runs were showing. This could just be some natural variability in the solutions, so don't get worried yet. I still think we have an above average chance of getting some snow (1" at least) during the cold blast late next week. Either through a clipper (most likely) or possibly a coastal if we can get a s/w in the northern stream to time itself right and come down through the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. 6z GFS hints at that coastal idea Day 9-10, but has it OTS (a more likely solution anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 can you imagine what the Board would be like if there were no subforums? actually, I sort of like the fact we are all in the same boat...no one to hate, only love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This is encouraging. Very encouraging actually. NAO MRF forecast not as rosey but an overall neutral look is good enough I guess. The MRF AO forecast has consistently gotten better and better each day. Now we have consensus for a -AO by mid month. Let the trough and cold air set up and then we'll see what kind of energy we can get tracking around it. Looking more and more likely that our first accum snow of the year is on the near horizon. I just hope it's not on the SNO storm days. I'll have to use ignore for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm a little disappointed in the overnight runs, was hoping to continue to see things develop, and while they didn't lose the pattern change by any means, they all seemed to weaken next week's cold shot a bit and weaken some of the positive signs (-EPO) that earlier runs were showing. This could just be some natural variability in the solutions, so don't get worried yet. I still think we have an above average chance of getting some snow (1" at least) during the cold blast late next week. Either through a clipper (most likely) or possibly a coastal if we can get a s/w in the northern stream to time itself right and come down through the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. 6z GFS hints at that coastal idea Day 9-10, but has it OTS (a more likely solution anyway). I mentioned it before and last night's clipper supports my thought that this year's event won't be seen in the MR and will just sort of show up on the models <72 hrs in advance NINAs that act like NINOs are too complicated, even for the computers I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Anyone else having trouble viewing the NCEP site? Been down all day for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow We still have one of the more civilized subs on the board. I don't hit the SE too much. I imagine they're probably the best because their expectations should be the lowest. Maybe the subforum suckometer is tied to climo snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow isn't that the textbook definition for the difference between the MA and NE? they get the pattern and it snows, we get it and it still won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS seems (as of late) a little more aggressive with the -AO, while the Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at a weak east-based -NAO around Day 9-10 the last couple runs. I'll take both please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't want to continue arguing cause it is a useless thing to argue over. You're right, I shouldn't have used terms like "get rid of it." I'm just frustrated, about the 06z being wrong often, just based off when I look at that run and based off my experience. I apologize for not knowing more, but being attacked in that tone from another met is wrong, and I haven't felt that attacked since way back in the early years of easternuswx in OFF TOPIC before we started cracking down on stuff like that. Mets arguing like that makes the board look bad, granted me saying that the 06z is horrible and all probably made us look bad too, but I'm not as knowledgable as other mets and don't understand everything. I'll be honest about that and I shouldn't be harassed because I don't understand. If it's the words I used like "horrible" and "get rid of" bothered you then that's all you had to say instead of all the other stuff. Attacks like these just turn me away from the board, and I've always felt welcome here. I'm not on this board all day long and obviously don't post much so I haven't seen other peoples posts and research about the models lately. And Wes, I understand your response and I really respect you as a met and you can agree with whoever you want. I was just stating my reason for throwing those words out. I guess the combination of a sucky winter, a horrible day so far at work, and things like that influenced my posts. And thanks Mapgirl for your response about me. I didn't try to start anything or insult anyone. Now, moving on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. Very good question, and one I've often wondered about. Of course, everyone's happy and getting along when it's snowing or we know snow is coming. But that still doesn't excuse a lack of common courtesy in other times. And that's your life lesson for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Very good question, and one I've often wondered about. Of course, everyone's happy and getting along when it's snowing or we know snow is coming. But that still doesn't excuse a lack of common courtesy in other times. And that's your life lesson for the day. egos.. lots of egos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 isn't that the textbook definition for the difference between the MA and NE? they get the pattern and it snows, we get it and it still won't There will be some new problem. Probably SE ridge or something. Maybe a new acronym from the Indian Ocean that HM just discovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't want to continue arguing cause it is a useless thing to argue over. You're right, I shouldn't have used terms like "get rid of it." I'm just frustrated, about the 06z being wrong often, just based off when I look at that run and based off my experience. I apologize for not knowing more, but being attacked in that tone from another met is wrong, and I haven't felt that attacked since way back in the early years of easternuswx in OFF TOPIC before we started cracking down on stuff like that. Mets arguing like that makes the board look bad, granted me saying that the 06z is horrible and all probably made us look bad too, but I'm not as knowledgable as other mets and don't understand everything. I'll be honest about that and I shouldn't be harassed because I don't understand. If it's the words I used like "horrible" and "get rid of" bothered you then that's all you had to say instead of all the other stuff. Attacks like these just turn me away from the board, and I've always felt welcome here. I'm not on this board all day long and obviously don't post much so I haven't seen other peoples posts and research about the models lately. And Wes, I understand your response and I really respect you as a met and you can agree with whoever you want. I was just stating my reason for throwing those words out. I guess the combination of a sucky winter, a horrible day so far at work, and things like that influenced my posts. And thanks Mapgirl for your response about me. I didn't try to start anything or insult anyone. Now, moving on.... All good! I think at this point we are all frustrated with how this winter has been thus far. We (the MA subforum) have a lot of really good mets, who each bring a little something different to the table so when the discussion is good... it is really good. My comments were trying to make light of the situation, so it didn't turn out into an all out met war. We don't need that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 you attacked his work--he works for NCEP--and you did so with baseless criticism and as a fellow red-tagger. just learn from it and move on. and that helps the situation immensely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lets get back on the topic here. don't forget we have a banter thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28325-2011-winter-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow I agree with you there... I am reluctant to even check the 12z gfs. I am on the verge already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 January 1977 was remarkably cold in DC, with an average temperature of 25.4 degrees, ranking it as the sixth coldest month ever -- and the coldest since January 1940. However, December 1976 (average temperature of 35.5) and February 1977 (average temperature of 38.8) weren't all that bad. The most remarkable thing about January 1977 was that, for 20 consecutive days, the temperature never got into the 40s, with the high temperature range being 18-39 and the low temperature range being 2-27 during that period (mean of 23.6). P.S. More relevant to this topic, AccuWeather currently shows an East Coast snowstorm on Martin Luther King Day, January 16. You're right: Following a cool autumn, the intense cold started in late December and ran through early February. January was the standout month. The mean average for DJF combined, east of the Mississippi, was mostly in the -6F to -8F range. The winters of 1917-18 and 1976-77 are generally considered a tie for the coldest winters ever recorded in the Eastern U.S. A full write-up from NOAA, written in November 1977 may be of interest to mets here (especially to compare forecasting then vs. today.) http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No4/1977v002no04-Wagner.pdf Tim in ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 just wait till the pattern changes and it still doesnt snow What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. im not sure but i like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. 384 hr gfs so I would'nt worry about that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What is the name of that show, the one where the guy randomly kicks guys in the crotch on the street? You would be a good host for that. You mean this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Better GFS run today than the last couple as long as ignore the double kick in the nuts at 384 (Miller A rainstorm and AK vortex returns). Next week's cold shot again looks weaker than it did yesterday, but GFS keeps things seasonable to a bit below from that point forward. It keeps showing different variations of ridging in AK and bering sea and ridging trying to break out around greenland (east based mostly). It has been consistent in many ways. PV around the Hudson Bay area and different variations of cross polar flow. I'm a weenie but my confidence in an ok pattern at the very least setting up shop somewhere around mid month is gaining quite a bit. Whether it snows or not is another issue but we're likely going to have modeled threats to track in the near future. That's alot more fun than tracking a reprehensible pattern changing into a less deplorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It keeps showing different variations of ridging in AK and bering sea and ridging trying to break out around greenland (east based mostly). It has been consistent in many ways. PV around the Hudson Bay area and different variations of cross polar flow. I'm a weenie but my confidence in an ok pattern at the very least setting up shop somewhere around mid month is gaining quite a bit. Whether it snows or not is another issue but we're likely going to have modeled threats to track in the near future. That's alot more fun than tracking a reprehensible pattern changing into a less deplorable pattern. the ridging around/north of Greenland would be a nice feature that has been missing all winter and hopefully, that would hold and then press further south in the future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the ridging around/north of Greenland would be a nice feature that has been missing all winter and hopefully, that would hold and then press further south in the future runs Looks like it's trying right? I might be wrong about the ridging building in the bering sea on N but doesn't that help buckle the flow and enhance the PNA? Ridge in AK - trough off pac coast - ridge intermountain west - trough in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS ensemble mean looks pretty good in the mid and long range. A few days ago, it had the PV moving faster towards the west (i.e., over Hudson Bay) then it does now. Still is inching its way there though. Going to be tough to get a good coastal to work out for his until we can get a NAO sign change, but the pattern as advertised would be good for some clippers and overrunning events potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS MOS is like a +10 departure for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS MOS is like a +10 departure for the next week. one good thing about a pattern change is we might stop hearing about stratospheric warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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