Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DC Folks - Can your area get snow with a +NAO? For Raleigh NC, I can't find any winter storms with a +NAO, I went through a lot, not all of them though. In our area we at least need the NAO to go neutral. Yes but they're generally messy. Hard to get an all snow event with a +NAO unless everything is timed just right. I don't know the list off hand but I'm sure zwyts can name the most notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT's honking for a "MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE" and "some serious WHAMMO" by Days 9-10. http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT's honking for a "MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE" and "some serious WHAMMO" by Days 9-10. http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk of course...He is by far the biggest Euro hugger known to man....nobody comes close...like clockwork, the second there is a good euro run he goes apesh-it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I doubt that the negative nao lasts long as the heights will probably crash across greenaldn as the monster east coast vortex lifts northeast if the model is even right. Still the last couple of runs of the euro have shown a better looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 my post might not have been necessary. but i was not implying anything different than what you typed. i just see people throw out the 500mb verification scores like their some grand proof of anything which i don't generally see them as. but still in my personal watchings i'd side with the euro more often than the gfs while of course trying to factor in the biases of each that i know of. Of course 500 hPa AC skill isn't the be all in terms of verification, but it sure as heck beats picking one or two discrete events from an 8 day model forecast that never panned out as proof that model A is better than model B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 of course...He is by far the biggest Euro hugger known to man....nobody comes close...like clockwork, the second there is a good euro run he goes apesh-it I have all of next week off into MLK day. If there is a formidable snow event within 500 miles I will travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I doubt that the negative nao lasts long as the heights will probably crash across greenaldn as the monster east coast vortex lifts northeast if the model is even right. Still the last couple of runs of the euro have shown a better looking pattern. I'm hoping the vortex goes further east than progged....I think it did last night....that was kind of the big downside of the run...that the upper level low cuts up through western new england instead of moving toward 50-50 edit:..pretty much the same idea last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I have all of next week off into MLK day. If there is a formidable snow event within 500 miles I will travel. There will probably be something in the OV....but it could be a stupid 4-8" event in like Central Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Of course 500 hPa AC skill isn't the be all in terms of verification, but it sure as heck beats picking one or two discrete events from an 8 day model forecast that never panned out as proof that model A is better than model B. i dont really disagree with that. and i'd rather just bow out of this conversation at this point to be honest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i dont really disagree with that. and i'd rather just bow out of this conversation at this point to be honest.. Fair enough....though I wasn't at all trying to be argumentative or anything of the sort (it seems we pretty much agree). If it is any consolation, we struggle with model verification all the time. It is a delicate balance with trying to come up with statistically sound, relevant metrics to get useful quantitative measures of skill and the actual qualitative (what forecasters actually see, use, etc.) aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Stolen from CoastalWx's post in the NE subforum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=51966 Feel free to fantasize, drool and fap away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There will probably be something in the OV....but it could be a stupid 4-8" event in like Central Indiana Yeah, it has to be 15"+ or can be lower combined with some high winds or some other anomalous situation. I'm not traveling for garden variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Fair enough....though I wasn't at all trying to be argumentative or anything of the sort (it seems we pretty much agree). If it is any consolation, we struggle with model verification all the time. It is a delicate balance with trying to come up with statistically sound, relevant metrics to get useful quantitative measures of skill and the actual qualitative (what forecasters actually see, use, etc.) aspects. no, i know. i just did not intend for it to be contentious at all other than perhaps going back to the discussion previously that perhaps people here have too much information at their disposal these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 no, i know. i just did not intend for it to be contentious at all other than perhaps going back to the discussion previously that perhaps people here have too much information at their disposal these days. it's all my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Stolen from CoastalWx's post in the NE subforum: http://www.americanw...attach_id=51966 Feel free to fantasize, drool and fap away... that look in the PAC is much better for New England, but I'd take it...I know off the top of my head, at least 2 of those dates had snowstorms within a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 we've had plenty of winters that were "made" during a 2-4 week period. we don't have to worry for another month. February's gonna be rockin'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Stolen from CoastalWx's post in the NE subforum: http://www.americanw...attach_id=51966 Feel free to fantasize, drool and fap away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 that look in the PAC is much better for New England, but I'd take it...I know off the top of my head, at least 2 of those dates had snowstorms within a couple days 4 of them preceded wintry periods (2/79, both in 1/82, 1/94). One followed a 2-3" snowfall (late Jan, 1965). The other 5 were in very dry periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm pretty sure we won't see those height anomalies over Greenland in the 11-15 day. Very sure. However the euro ensembles do drive quite the plunge of cold air into the east by D9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 that look in the PAC is much better for New England, but I'd take it...I know off the top of my head, at least 2 of those dates had snowstorms within a couple days I know there was a good snow in southwest Va. on (I believe) Jan 17, 1994. It was the day of the LA earthquake IIRC. One of the dates in that list is Jan 6, 1994. Maybe someone will remember and tell me what that date was like up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 4 of them preceded wintry periods (2/79, both in 1/82, 1/94). One followed a 2-3" snowfall (late Jan, 1965). The other 5 were in very dry periods. 94 was a memorable cold spell. One of the lowest daily high temps was during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 94 was the absolute worst winter I can ever remember. Bitterly cold and nothing but Ice. It almost equalled the winter of 77 when the chesapeake bay froze so bad they had to bring in coast guard ice breakers to free shipping Lanes. 77 had very little snow to my recollection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 94 was the absolute worst winter I can ever remember. Bitterly cold and nothing but Ice. It almost equalled the winter of 77 when the chesapeake bay froze so bad they had to bring in coast guard ice breakers to free shipping Lanes. 77 had very little snow to my recollection. Now experiencing my 60th winter, the great bulk of which were in MD/DC/DE, I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled. Some winters are snowy, some not; some winters cold, some not; but I have to wonder just how great are the statistical odds against three consecutive months in D.C. running 10F below normal. And when those months happen to be Dec/Jan/Feb, the results are stunning. A Potomac River with ice thick enough to support vehicular traffic; ice breakers cutting channels on the Chesapeake; and slush on the Delaware shores. I remember two large, front-page photos in the Washington Post that winter; one of people ice skating beneath the main span of the Bay Bridge, the other of Niagara Falls frozen to the top. And of course the frequent news on TV on how the demand for natural gas in the Northeast was outstripping pipeline capacity from the source (Gulf states.) With factories closed for lack of fuel, the worry was our school systems would be next. And on a side note, the spread of electric heating long ago was not because electric heat is better (it's not) but because gas pipeline capacity is limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Good points. Your right. 77 was bitterly cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Now experiencing my 60th winter, the great bulk of which were in MD/DC/DE, I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled. Some winters are snowy, some not; some winters cold, some not; but I have to wonder just how great are the statistical odds against three consecutive months in D.C. running 10F below normal. And when those months happen to be Dec/Jan/Feb, the results are stunning. A Potomac River with ice thick enough to support vehicular traffic; ice breakers cutting channels on the Chesapeake; and slush on the Delaware shores. I remember two large, front-page photos in the Washington Post that winter; one of people ice skating beneath the main span of the Bay Bridge, the other of Niagara Falls frozen to the top. And of course the frequent news on TV on how the demand for natural gas in the Northeast was outstripping pipeline capacity from the source (Gulf states.) With factories closed for lack of fuel, the worry was our school systems would be next. And on a side note, the spread of electric heating long ago was not because electric heat is better (it's not) but because gas pipeline capacity is limited. I remember my older brothers friends driving their trucks on large ponds around here and my Dad complaining about the heating bills. I am sure that was 76-77 as you have described it. Snow is fine but I am getting too old for such prolonged cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I am almost the last person on this board to discuss long range pattern changes and 10-day hopes, so I won't. But I am so desperate for anything to track that I looked at the 6z GFS just out. And there is not much to track. It has the 156 hour or so storm that drives up toward the eastern great lakes and makes everyone on the east coast very wet. Beyond that, it turns sharply colder as advertised on other models, and tries to give the hint of something in GOM, but crushes it well to the south and sends it easily out to sea. I think. Not sure if that look is a good look with regard to the hoped for pattern change or not, but cold and dry while precip is crushed to our south and tossed well out to sea would be a new way to not get snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 94 was a memorable cold spell. One of the lowest daily high temps was during that time. I was a senior in high school in central PA. That was the only time I ever remember school being cancelled due to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 ... I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled... Sorry for going off thread topic, but awesome post and memories. I was in 8th grade that winter and my first period gym teacher refused to let us stay inside regardless of how cold it was. I still remember my thighs turning a fire-engine red color while playing soccer on a rock-solid frozen dirt field at 9AM in the morning. Of course, most of us were too stupid to keep sweats in our lockers and went out playing in those standard issue yellow shorts and reversible blue-yellow shirts. Today someone would sue. Anyway, I found this photo from the Balitmore Sun. ( Photo courtesy of Bob Grieser ) People walk on the ice over the Chesapeake Bay during the Big Freeze of 1976-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Though I was too young in 76-77 to remember it specifically, I suspect that a good deal of my recollections of ice-skating on frozen ponds as a youth must have come from this winter. Thanks to all those who've posted thier memories of that winter. That picture of the CBB is simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Unfortunately both the Euro and GFS have this massive rainstorm. Really hoping after this storm we can get a more favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.