dtk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Perhaps you, as a met, should not throw out such lines as "Get rid of it or improve it" when not knowing what goes into the model. This is especially true when you have a developer on the forum who is able to and does provide the correct information in addition to discussing some of the finer points and future plans. His tone is fine... he has addressed the depreciation of accuracy of the off-hour runs several times in this sub-forum and has dispelled the myth that the off-hour runs are garbage, with the stats to back it up. It's insulting to him and the other developers to have to repeatedly get these criticisms and false assumptions. ----- EDIT: Also, what dtk said above (he posted while I was writing) The funny thing is I started digging some more into the past 60 days worth of scores (various metrics), and the 06z cycle does seem to be systematically slightly worse than the other cycles (particularly over the NH/Conus)...though the differences aren't statistically significant (at least not at a 95% confidence level) for the same lead times. However, the differences aren't even close to a 6h advantage (meaning, as I said before, a 114h forecast from 6z will almost always be better than a 120h forecast from 0z.....and those are the two forecasts valid at the same time....so it's not degrading anything, per say). As an aside, I don't think that I (nor my colleagues) mind criticism if/when it's warranted. p.s. This winter sucks. I really need it to snow > 1" on the 16th so that I can win our office "first snowfall pool". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It does beat sitting around waiting for this pattern change to happen. What did the 6z GFS show? Nothing that you'd be interested in unless you like rain and then cold and then warm and then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yes from a met. And instead of being a jackass with your answer, maybe you could answer more appropriately. Mets still learn as well. Not all mets understand all the details that go into models. You can actually be a pretty damn good forecaster without knowing that, which I am and was, so don't tell me not to post. And all of what you told me isn't exactly taught in school. All I was saying is a lot of people don't even bother looking at the 06z and 18z GFS because they're usually not as accurate. And I didn't understand why, but thanks for your pathetic answer. Please don't post if you're gonna answer questions in the ways you do. And in response to your edited version to your post. Yes I know that about the models and their hours. THAT, a met should know. I remember lots of people in met school didn't take the 6z or 18z runs of the ETA/AVN seriously, but I think that thought process is somewhat outdated. There have been multiple trends that have begun on intermediate runs of those models. Cannot remember exact storms at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wes it will be...not foolish is he with forecasting emotion...facts he deals in not wishes. he is my Yoda Oh please, I can beat Wes on the golf course, and I'll take him down here too . Oh wait, he was already sort of on my side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wes it will be...not foolish is he with forecasting emotion...facts he deals in not wishes. he is my Yoda The only thing I could think of when I saw Wes's post was FINISH HIM ... snowdude is a good guy though, so I don't wanna knock him too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Man, you know it's a tough winter when red taggers are fighting each other. There seems to be a lot of handbags being swung around here on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing that you'd be interested in unless you like rain and then cold and then warm and then cold. Since i received about 60" of it last year, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing that you'd be interested in unless you like rain and then cold and then warm and then cold. You know, we are thinking of banning this negativity. Blizz24 is our model poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The only thing I could think of when I saw Wes's post was FINISH HIM ... snowdude is a good guy though, so I don't wanna knock him too much I am by far the most macho in this thread. You know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Oh please, I can beat Wes on the golf course, and I'll take him down here too . Oh wait, he was already sort of on my side.... I think I did tie you or beat you once using Buzz's rules which meant I really lost to you that time too. I recently shot a 38 on the front nine at Twin Shields and only used two mulligans though I now play from the yellow tees. So just wait, next time I'll crush you like a bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I am by far the most macho in this thread. You know it I realize Philly sucks and all, but GTFO of my subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I realize Philly sucks and all, but GTFO of my subforum I can go to any subforum I want, except NE. They threw rocks at me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 As an aside, I don't think that I (nor my colleagues) mind criticism if/when it's warranted. p.s. This winter sucks. I really need it to snow > 1" on the 16th so that I can win our office "first snowfall pool". Bolded for emphasis I lost my snow pool Was hoping for late Nov/early Dec to pay off in an early blocking pattern that never developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I realize Philly sucks and all, but GTFO of my subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I think I did tie you or beat you once using Buzz's rules which meant I really lost to you that time too. I recently shot a 38 on the front nine at Twin Shields and only used two mulligans though I now play from the yellow tees. So just wait, next time I'll crush you like a bug. Well played sir, well played. I think I need to abide by Buzz's "rules" from now on, it will make golf a lot more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Bendy Mod can stay - Rib has to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Perhaps you, as a met, should not throw out such lines as "Get rid of it or improve it" when not knowing what goes into the model. This is especially true when you have a developer on the forum who is able to and does provide the correct information in addition to discussing some of the finer points and future plans. His tone is fine... he has addressed the depreciation of accuracy of the off-hour runs several times in this sub-forum and has dispelled the myth that the off-hour runs are garbage, with the stats to back it up. It's insulting to him and the other developers to have to repeatedly get these criticisms and false assumptions. ----- EDIT: Also, what dtk said above (he posted while I was writing) For how far NWP prediction has come in the past decade and for those of us who work to improve such models...its easy to shake off criticism from a weenie, but its sad coming from mets who don't understand how good they have it with our current NWP guidance. I'm sure other may feel the same, but one of my first memories about NWP was learning about the first attempt at a numerical forecast by Richardson in undergraduate Dynamics class....maybe I was humbled by that story and always learned to appreciate the sophistication that forecasters are provided now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I can go to any subforum I want, except NE. They threw rocks at me They have been fighting each other up there also. It's been great to see. The lack of snow is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The only thing I could think of when I saw Wes's post was FINISH HIM ... snowdude is a good guy though, so I don't wanna knock him too much He is but so is DTK and in this case he is the one I agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Bendy Mod can stay - Rib has to go. I will leave this subforum the next time DC gets 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Back to the subject at hand, intermediate models are decent if used properly. There. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Back to the subject at hand, intermediate models are decent if used properly. There. Okay then, group hug and back to complaining about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I will leave this subforum the next time DC gets 4 inches of snow. ugh, guess you will be around for a while then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GFS... crushing storms to the south in the long range? Oh and did you say the 6z GFS? If one is to attempt to interpret the models they should have an idea of the biases as well as the difficulties of resolving details in the long range, esp with changing patterns. I think maybe you had it right when you said you shouldnt discuss pattern changes What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. You are kind of a dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Man, you know it's a tough winter when red taggers are fighting each other. Not all created equal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing that you'd be interested in unless you like rain and then cold and then warm and then cold. I guess I read the last few model runs including the 6z GFS that CAPE made fun of me for mentioning okay then. Nothing to see in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ok so about the long range --> It seems possible that after the rain storm forecasted by GFS/EURO at the end of next week A) we get another lake effect/mountain event like we did earlier this week (for WV, PA, OH, NY) we get another shot of hopefully longer lasting cold air. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 What a peach you are. I am aware of the 6z GFS and its issues. I was just trying to start some new chatter. My bad. I guess we can go back to general bitching about the awful pattern. You are kind of a dick. and let the melt downs begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Okay then, group hug and back to complaining about this winter. I still hold out hope that the big storm that gives us rain in about a week does something to the pattern. Ridging out west helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not melting down, just wondering why courtesy is so short on this board anymore. Mets I respect will look at all models including the 6z. I happened to be up and near a computer this morning, and thought I would mention the most recent run as not looking all that favorable still, but maybe I missed something. Not sure that needed the caustic response it drew. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.