usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah, the pattern is certainly changing. Thing is, the new pattern, while an improvement, is still not an ideal one for us to get lots of snow...or even normal amounts of snow. We'll be going from a pattern that's above to well-above normal temps to one that is pretty much seasonable, so I'd rather take my odds with those kind of temps. You're right...if we can get a quick transient -NAO, that would really boost our chances. That's pretty much how I see it. It's still not a good pattern but is better than what we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Will we be counting this snow in inches or feet? BTW...if you're just saying "trace of snow or more", that is really not a bold forecast since that is the climo peak for snow. Rarely does DCA measure their snow in feet, but a SECS is likely. Yes and tally that as a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Do you have a method for this date? You have been 'banging the drum' for several months, but I never saw your science behind it. Farmers almanac it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Got it, the SNO-storm is a 3-6" event at DCA. I'll boost that to 5-10" for MBY and begin mentally preparing for this joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Farmers almanac it seems. People still read that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT honking about massive SSW on Facebook right now...talking about -AO developing. I guess that's where Ian must be right now.... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Got it, the SNO-storm is a 3-6" event at DCA. I'll boost that to 5-10" for MBY and begin mentally preparing for this joy. We all will be joyous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Got it, the SNO-storm is a 3-6" event at DCA. I'll boost that to 5-10" for MBY and begin mentally preparing for this joy. You do realize that if it does happen, we'll never hear the end of it. A legend is born. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm celebrating the coming of the -AO, just in time for our best climatological snow weeks of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm celebrating the coming of the -AO, just in time for our best climatological snow weeks of the winter. We still need the nao to go negative, it remains positive as the ao still isnt' forecast to be strongly negative enough to drive it. That may still be in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 We still need the nao to go negative, it remains positive as the ao still isnt' forecast to be strongly negative enough to drive it. That may still be in the works. In a perfect world yes but neutral to slighltly pos is ok if we get a cooperating ao/pna. We won't get a big miller A in that setup but we can get clippers or even a sheared out open wave to our south that gives us a 1-3 / 2-4 overrunning event. I have a feeling that chasing the big fish isn't worth it this year. Maybe just tossing some worms and bobbers so we can catch....well......a damn break for god sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 We still need the nao to go negative, it remains positive as the ao still isnt' forecast to be strongly negative enough to drive it. That may still be in the works. Baby steps. WIthout a -AO we were doomed, at least this gives us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 In a perfect world yes but neutral to slighltly pos is ok if we get a cooperating ao/pna. We won't get a big miller A in that setup but we can get clippers or even a sheared out open wave to our south that gives us a 1-3 / 2-4 overrunning event. I have a feeling that chasing the big fish isn't worth it this year. Maybe just tossing some worms and bobbers so we can catch....well......a damn break for god sakes. I agree, that's what we need to look for unless we somehow luck out or if the nao finally responds and goes negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS ensemble mean shows the AO solidly negative in a week's time and getting more negative afterwards. PV ever so slowly moves west away from Greenland and over Hudson Bay (if you buy the ensemble mean at 11-15 days). If that happens, that probably allows the NAO to get near neutral as ridging from the N. Atlantic and Arctic try to join up and starts making things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS ensemble mean shows the AO solidly negative in a week's time and getting more negative afterwards. PV ever so slowly moves west away from Greenland and over Hudson Bay (if you buy the ensemble mean at 11-15 days). If that happens, that probably allows the NAO to get near neutral as ridging from the N. Atlantic and Arctic try to join up and starts making things interesting. WxUSAF - the trend will be our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You do realize that if it does happen, we'll never hear the end of it. A legend is born. MDstorm he's becoming annoying IMO... but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 he's becoming annoying IMO... but we'll see. That is not my intent. So I will not post any further. Let's just wait for verification. Enjoy the snow predicted by SNO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That is not my intent. So I will not post any further. Let's just wait for verification. Enjoy the snow predicted by SNO. i just dont think ive seen you post any reasoning. it's one of those things wher you can say.. if everyone did it this place would be unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS ensemble mean shows the AO solidly negative in a week's time and getting more negative afterwards. PV ever so slowly moves west away from Greenland and over Hudson Bay (if you buy the ensemble mean at 11-15 days). If that happens, that probably allows the NAO to get near neutral as ridging from the N. Atlantic and Arctic try to join up and starts making things interesting. I know most of the "level headed" pros have not been that excited about the strato warming thus far, but apparently the warming has started to have an effect where we need it to move the pattern towards something giving us a "legit" shot at accumulating snow dang shame it's taken this long, but as long as we start to see "accumulating" results, it's all good I always keep in mind the winters of 78/79 and 86/87 as my models for "keeping the faith" that started real, real slow but ended with well above normal snows on a "mitchnick, the native Indian" note, I have been walking every evening now for 6-7 years and every year have seen and/or heard the Canadian geese heading south in early OCT; this year, I only heard them one night heading south in early OCT, but saw a flock heading north in mid NOV, and then read in the NE forum how Ct BLizz was complaining he had a bunch of them hanging around his area, unlike any other year anyway, 2 nights ago, I heard them for the first time ever in any JAN, heading south.....the right direction! maybe they were just locals, Idk, but I tend to doubt it because they were way, way up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i just dont think ive seen you post any reasoning. it's one of those things wher you can say.. if everyone did it this place would be unreadable. He hasn't and he's been asked several times. Maybe katodog told him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 on a "mitchnick, the native Indian" note, I have been walking every evening now for 6-7 years and every year have seen and/or heard the Canadian geese heading south in early OCT; this year, I only heard them one night heading south in early OCT, but saw a flock heading north in mid NOV, and then read in the NE forum how Ct BLizz was complaining he had a bunch of them hanging around his area, unlike any other year anyway, 2 nights ago, I heard them for the first time ever in any JAN, heading south.....the right direction! maybe they were just locals, Idk, but I tend to doubt it because they were way, way up there lots of canada geese don't really migrate either so it might not even mean anything at all. more importantly how fat are your squirrels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 on a "mitchnick, the native Indian" note, I have been walking every evening now for 6-7 years and every year have seen and/or heard the Canadian geese heading south in early OCT; this year, I only heard them one night heading south in early OCT, but saw a flock heading north in mid NOV, and then read in the NE forum how Ct BLizz was complaining he had a bunch of them hanging around his area, unlike any other year anyway, 2 nights ago, I heard them for the first time ever in any JAN, heading south.....the right direction! maybe they were just locals, Idk, but I tend to doubt it because they were way, way up there I guess this is OT, but many of the Canada geese in the MD/VA/DC area are now year-round residents. This has just started happening in the last couple decades. There's enough forage for them that they just winter over near the Bay and really don't leave in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lots of canada geese don't really migrate either so it might not even mean anything at all. more importantly how fat are your squirrels? before I shot and ate them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i just dont think ive seen you post any reasoning. it's one of those things wher you can say.. if everyone did it this place would be unreadable. and there would always be someone who could claim they were right even if most of their calls were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I guess this is OT, but many of the Canada geese in the MD/VA/DC area are now year-round residents. This has just started happening in the last couple decades. There's enough forage for them that they just winter over near the Bay and really don't leave in summer. Which is just lovely for that round of golf where you have to putt through a goose minefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I guess this is OT, but many of the Canada geese in the MD/VA/DC area are now year-round residents. This has just started happening in the last couple decades. There's enough forage for them that they just winter over near the Bay and really don't leave in summer. that may be the case as I've never done any research, I just know that there is usually a week or two period in early OCT when al,most evey night I see or hear them, and they are quite high up this year, like I said, was different than any of the last 6 or 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 that may be the case as I've never done any research, I just know that there is usually a week or two period in early OCT when al,most evey night I see or hear them, and they are quite high up this year, like I said, was different than any of the last 6 or 7 So what happened in the low-geese -QBO analog winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 People keep referencing back-loaded winters like 1987 or 2005 or 2007. The problem I have with this is- those were all El Nino years. La Nina February's usually suck badly here. I have little faith in March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 and there would always be someone who could claim they were right even if most of their calls were wrong. nobody on this Board would dare to be so low-down, selfish, and conniving to do a thing like that, would they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So what happened in the low-geese -QBO analog winters? I think Ellinwood handled that study remember the date....it ain't over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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