January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

[mitchnick]

no, i know. i just did not intend for it to be contentious at all other than perhaps going back to the discussion previously that perhaps people here have too much information at their disposal these days.

it's all my fault

[mattie g]

we've had plenty of winters that were "made" during a 2-4 week period. we don't have to worry for another month.

February's gonna be rockin'?

[Bob Chill]

Stolen from CoastalWx's post in the NE subforum:

http://www.americanw...attach_id=51966

Feel free to fantasize, drool and fap away...

[gymengineer]

that look in the PAC is much better for New England, but I'd take it...I know off the top of my head, at least 2 of those dates had snowstorms within a couple days

4 of them preceded wintry periods (2/79, both in 1/82, 1/94). One followed a 2-3" snowfall (late Jan, 1965). The other 5 were in very dry periods.

[CoastalWx]

I'm pretty sure we won't see those height anomalies over Greenland in the 11-15 day. Very sure. However the euro ensembles do drive quite the plunge of cold air into the east by D9.

[WinterWxLuvr]

that look in the PAC is much better for New England, but I'd take it...I know off the top of my head, at least 2 of those dates had snowstorms within a couple days

I know there was a good snow in southwest Va. on (I believe) Jan 17, 1994. It was the day of the LA earthquake IIRC. One of the dates in that list is Jan 6, 1994. Maybe someone will remember and tell me what that date was like up here.

[H2O]

4 of them preceded wintry periods (2/79, both in 1/82, 1/94). One followed a 2-3" snowfall (late Jan, 1965). The other 5 were in very dry periods.

94 was a memorable cold spell. One of the lowest daily high temps was during that time.

[mdsnowlover]

94 was the absolute worst winter I can ever remember. Bitterly cold and nothing but Ice. It almost equalled the winter of 77 when the chesapeake bay froze so bad they had to bring in coast guard ice breakers to free shipping

Lanes. 77 had very little snow to my recollection.

[Mencken_Fan]

94 was the absolute worst winter I can ever remember. Bitterly cold and nothing but Ice. It almost equalled the winter of 77 when the chesapeake bay froze so bad they had to bring in coast guard ice breakers to free shipping

Lanes. 77 had very little snow to my recollection.

Now experiencing my 60th winter, the great bulk of which were in MD/DC/DE, I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled.

Some winters are snowy, some not; some winters cold, some not; but I have to wonder just how great are the statistical odds against three consecutive months in D.C. running 10F below normal.

And when those months happen to be Dec/Jan/Feb, the results are stunning. A Potomac River with ice thick enough to support vehicular traffic; ice breakers cutting channels on the Chesapeake; and slush on the Delaware shores.

I remember two large, front-page photos in the Washington Post that winter; one of people ice skating beneath the main span of the Bay Bridge, the other of Niagara Falls frozen to the top. And of course the frequent news on TV on how the demand for natural gas in the Northeast was outstripping pipeline capacity from the source (Gulf states.) With factories closed for lack of fuel, the worry was our school systems would be next.

And on a side note, the spread of electric heating long ago was not because electric heat is better (it's not) but because gas pipeline capacity is limited.

[mdsnowlover]

Good points. Your right. 77 was bitterly cold

[snownut]

Now experiencing my 60th winter, the great bulk of which were in MD/DC/DE, I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled.

Some winters are snowy, some not; some winters cold, some not; but I have to wonder just how great are the statistical odds against three consecutive months in D.C. running 10F below normal.

And when those months happen to be Dec/Jan/Feb, the results are stunning. A Potomac River with ice thick enough to support vehicular traffic; ice breakers cutting channels on the Chesapeake; and slush on the Delaware shores.

I remember two large, front-page photos in the Washington Post that winter; one of people ice skating beneath the main span of the Bay Bridge, the other of Niagara Falls frozen to the top. And of course the frequent news on TV on how the demand for natural gas in the Northeast was outstripping pipeline capacity from the source (Gulf states.) With factories closed for lack of fuel, the worry was our school systems would be next.

And on a side note, the spread of electric heating long ago was not because electric heat is better (it's not) but because gas pipeline capacity is limited.

I remember my older brothers friends driving their trucks on large ponds around here and my Dad complaining about the heating bills. I am sure that was 76-77 as you have described it. Snow is fine but I am getting too old for such prolonged cold.

[North Balti Zen]

I am almost the last person on this board to discuss long range pattern changes and 10-day hopes, so I won't. But I am so desperate for anything to track that I looked at the 6z GFS just out. And there is not much to track. It has the 156 hour or so storm that drives up toward the eastern great lakes and makes everyone on the east coast very wet. Beyond that, it turns sharply colder as advertised on other models, and tries to give the hint of something in GOM, but crushes it well to the south and sends it easily out to sea.

I think.

Not sure if that look is a good look with regard to the hoped for pattern change or not, but cold and dry while precip is crushed to our south and tossed well out to sea would be a new way to not get snow this winter.

[smokeybandit]

94 was a memorable cold spell. One of the lowest daily high temps was during that time.

I was a senior in high school in central PA. That was the only time I ever remember school being cancelled due to cold.

[nw baltimore wx]

... I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled...

Sorry for going off thread topic, but awesome post and memories. I was in 8th grade that winter and my first period gym teacher refused to let us stay inside regardless of how cold it was. I still remember my thighs turning a fire-engine red color while playing soccer on a rock-solid frozen dirt field at 9AM in the morning. Of course, most of us were too stupid to keep sweats in our lockers and went out playing in those standard issue yellow shorts and reversible blue-yellow shirts. Today someone would sue.

Anyway, I found this photo from the Balitmore Sun.

( Photo courtesy of Bob Grieser )

People walk on the ice over the Chesapeake Bay during the Big Freeze of 1976-77.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Though I was too young in 76-77 to remember it specifically, I suspect that a good deal of my recollections of ice-skating on frozen ponds as a youth must have come from this winter. Thanks to all those who've posted thier memories of that winter. That picture of the CBB is simply amazing.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Unfortunately both the Euro and GFS have this massive rainstorm. Really hoping after this storm we can get a more favorable pattern.

[CAPE]

I am almost the last person on this board to discuss long range pattern changes and 10-day hopes, so I won't. But I am so desperate for anything to track that I looked at the 6z GFS just out. And there is not much to track. It has the 156 hour or so storm that drives up toward the eastern great lakes and makes everyone on the east coast very wet. Beyond that, it turns sharply colder as advertised on other models, and tries to give the hint of something in GOM, but crushes it well to the south and sends it easily out to sea.

I think.

Not sure if that look is a good look with regard to the hoped for pattern change or not, but cold and dry while precip is crushed to our south and tossed well out to sea would be a new way to not get snow this winter.

The GFS... crushing storms to the south in the long range? Oh and did you say the 6z GFS? If one is to attempt to interpret the models they should have an idea of the biases as well as the difficulties of resolving details in the long range, esp with changing patterns. I think maybe you had it right when you said you shouldnt discuss pattern changes

[snowdude]

The GFS... crushing storms to the south in the long range? Oh and did you say the 6z GFS? If one is to attempt to interpret the models they should have an idea of the biases as well as the difficulties of resolving details in the long range, esp with changing patterns. I think maybe you had it right when you said you shouldnt discuss pattern changes

I seriously want to know why we even have a 06z GFS run. It is horrible and usually the opposite of what all the other models show. Get rid of it or improve it.

[usedtobe]

i came across this and was surprised to see the gfs in dead last out of the all models. this was from 144 hours out at 500mb for 0z 1.3.12

here is all the euro and gfs model runs compared for each cycle, and yes it looks like the 6z and 18z are the worst runs

Essentially the 00Z, 06Z and 18Z GFS scores are statistically a dead heat. When you have to take correlations scores to the third digit to find a difference the differences are statistically insignificant.

[RickinBaltimore]

94 was the absolute worst winter I can ever remember. Bitterly cold and nothing but Ice. It almost equalled the winter of 77 when the chesapeake bay froze so bad they had to bring in coast guard ice breakers to free shipping

Lanes. 77 had very little snow to my recollection.

I agree. I was working as a busser at a restaurant in Fells Point and the restaurant shut down when pipes froze and flooded (and iced in some spots) the place. As for the Winter of '77 I turned one in June of '77 so I obviously don't remember a thing about it.

[dtk]

I seriously want to know why we even have a 06z GFS run. It is horrible and usually the opposite of what all the other models show. Get rid of it or improve it.

From a met? really?

Also, even if we didn't make those forecasts public, we would still need to run the 06z GFS to drive all of the down stream models (NAM, HWRF, GFDL, Ruc/Rapid Refresh, Hycom, etc.).

Seriously, please don't post about models if you don't know what you're talking about.

** Edit to add: Even if a 120h forecast from 6z verifies slightly worse than the 120h forecast from 0z, recall that the two points for verification are not the same. The 114h forecast from 6z is almost always better than the 120h forecast from 0z, for example. If no data were assimilated at 6z, the 120h forecast from 0z would be identical to the 114h forecast from 6z.

[snowdude]

From a met? really? Also, even if we didn't make those forecasts public, we would still need to run the 06z GFS to drive all of the down stream models (NAM, HWRF, GFDL, Ruc/Rapid Refresh, Hycom, etc.). Seriously, please don't post about models if you don't know what you're talking about.

Yes from a met. And instead of being a jackass with your answer, maybe you could answer more appropriately.

Mets still learn as well. Not all mets understand all the details that go into models. You can actually be a pretty damn good forecaster without knowing that, which I am and was, so don't tell me not to post. And all of what you told me isn't exactly taught in school.

All I was saying is a lot of people don't even bother looking at the 06z and 18z GFS because they're usually not as accurate. And I didn't understand why, but thanks for your pathetic answer.

Please don't post if you're gonna answer questions in the ways you do.

And in response to your edited version to your post. Yes I know that about the models and their hours. THAT, a met should know.

[dtk]

I seriously want to know why we even have a 06z GFS run. It is horrible and usually the opposite of what all the other models show. Get rid of it or improve it.

Yes from a met. And instead of being a jackass with your answer, maybe you could answer more appropriately.

Mets still learn as well. Not all mets understand all the details that go into models. You can actually be a pretty damn good forecaster without knowing that, which I am and was, so don't tell me not to post. And all of what you told me isn't exactly taught in school.

All I was saying is a lot of people don't even bother looking at the 06z and 18z GFS because they're usually not as accurate. And I didn't understand why, but thanks for your pathetic answer.

Please don't post if you're gonna answer questions in the ways you do.

And in response to your edited version to your post. Yes I know that about the models and their hours. THAT, a met should know.

I believe I answered the bolded above, even if you completely ignore the perceived lack of skill for the referenced cycle. I'm not about to get into a pissing contest over something so stupid. Given that you called it "horrible", "the opposite of what other models show", and to "get rid of it", I don't think my response was that out of line (sorry for my negative tone, however). I shouldn't have said "not to post about models", so I apologize (though, again, your original post was pretty ridiculous in my opinion).

This issue of 6z/18z versus the other cycles, perceived skill, etc., has been discussed many times in many threads. If you have an actual question or want to learn more, then ask. However, if my replies are so offensive, I'm happy to keep my thoughts to myself.

[Ellinwood]

Yes from a met. And instead of being a jackass with your answer, maybe you could answer more appropriately.

Mets still learn as well. Not all mets understand all the details that go into models. You can actually be a pretty damn good forecaster without knowing that, which I am and was, so don't tell me not to post. And all of what you told me isn't exactly taught in school.

All I was saying is a lot of people don't even bother looking at the 06z and 18z GFS because they're usually not as accurate. And I didn't understand why, but thanks for your pathetic answer.

Please don't post if you're gonna answer questions in the ways you do.

And in response to your edited version to your post. Yes I know that about the models and their hours. THAT, a met should know.

Perhaps you, as a met, should not throw out such lines as "Get rid of it or improve it" when not knowing what goes into the model. This is especially true when you have a developer on the forum who is able to and does provide the correct information in addition to discussing some of the finer points and future plans.

His tone is fine... he has addressed the depreciation of accuracy of the off-hour runs several times in this sub-forum and has dispelled the myth that the off-hour runs are garbage, with the stats to back it up. It's insulting to him and the other developers to have to repeatedly get these criticisms and false assumptions.

-----

EDIT: Also, what dtk said above (he posted while I was writing)

[RodneyS]

Now experiencing my 60th winter, the great bulk of which were in MD/DC/DE, I can say without hesitation the winter of '76-'77 stands unparalleled.

Some winters are snowy, some not; some winters cold, some not; but I have to wonder just how great are the statistical odds against three consecutive months in D.C. running 10F below normal.

January 1977 was remarkably cold in DC, with an average temperature of 25.4 degrees, ranking it as the sixth coldest month ever -- and the coldest since January 1940. However, December 1976 (average temperature of 35.5) and February 1977 (average temperature of 38.8) weren't all that bad. The most remarkable thing about January 1977 was that, for 20 consecutive days, the temperature never got into the 40s, with the high temperature range being 18-39 and the low temperature range being 2-27 during that period (mean of 23.6).

P.S. More relevant to this topic, AccuWeather currently shows an East Coast snowstorm on Martin Luther King Day, January 16.

[Feb]

Man, you know it's a tough winter when red taggers are fighting each other.

[mappy]

Man, you know it's a tough winter when red taggers are fighting each other.

From a female perspective... its kind of awesome. I'm curious to who comes out as top alpha met

[usedtobe]

Yes from a met. And instead of being a jackass with your answer, maybe you could answer more appropriately.

Mets still learn as well. Not all mets understand all the details that go into models. You can actually be a pretty damn good forecaster without knowing that, which I am and was, so don't tell me not to post. And all of what you told me isn't exactly taught in school.

All I was saying is a lot of people don't even bother looking at the 06z and 18z GFS because they're usually not as accurate. And I didn't understand why, but thanks for your pathetic answer.

Please don't post if you're gonna answer questions in the ways you do.

And in response to your edited version to your post. Yes I know that about the models and their hours. THAT, a met should know.

Any people who aren't using off hour model runs are making a mistake. I also think DTK answer was appropriate given your outlandish original statement. Maybe he shouldn't have made the comment about coming from a met but I'm sure that was out of frustration as the myth that the 06Z and 18Z model runs are way worse than the 00Z or 12s runs. that myth has been discussed with verification stats numerous times on this board. If you go back to midlo's post in this thread and look at the difference in anomaly correlation scores. You'll see that you have to to to the third decimal point to order them. That is not a statistically significant difference. Essentially, the verification suggests little difference in the runs.

[Feb]

From a female perspective... its kind of awesome. I'm curious to who comes out as top alpha met

It does beat sitting around waiting for this pattern change to happen. What did the 6z GFS show?

[dtk]

Perhaps you, as a met, should not throw out such lines as "Get rid of it or improve it" when not knowing what goes into the model. This is especially true when you have a developer on the forum who is able to and does provide the correct information in addition to discussing some of the finer points and future plans.

His tone is fine... he has addressed the depreciation of accuracy of the off-hour runs several times in this sub-forum and has dispelled the myth that the off-hour runs are garbage, with the stats to back it up. It's insulting to him and the other developers to have to repeatedly get these criticisms and false assumptions.

-----

EDIT: Also, what dtk said above (he posted while I was writing)

The funny thing is I started digging some more into the past 60 days worth of scores (various metrics), and the 06z cycle does seem to be systematically slightly worse than the other cycles (particularly over the NH/Conus)...though the differences aren't statistically significant (at least not at a 95% confidence level) for the same lead times. However, the differences aren't even close to a 6h advantage (meaning, as I said before, a 114h forecast from 6z will almost always be better than a 120h forecast from 0z.....and those are the two forecasts valid at the same time....so it's not degrading anything, per say).

As an aside, I don't think that I (nor my colleagues) mind criticism if/when it's warranted.

p.s. This winter sucks. I really need it to snow > 1" on the 16th so that I can win our office "first snowfall pool".