mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 People keep referencing back-loaded winters like 1987 or 2005 or 2007. The problem I have with this is- those were all El Nino years. La Nina February's usually suck badly here. I have little faith in March as well. 78-79 wasn't, though admittedly there was a 3" event around Thanksgiving which could be argued disqualifies it as a back loaded winter, but with over 40" at BWI, I believe it still qualifies; also, I'm talking snow as I do know that winter was cold unlike this one...so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 People keep referencing back-loaded winters like 1987 or 2005 or 2007. The problem I have with this is- those were all El Nino years. La Nina February's usually suck badly here. I have little faith in March as well. realistically we should not hold out much hope past mar 1 or so but nina can have some good march events http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/02/dc_end_of_season_snowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 we've had plenty of winters that were "made" during a 2-4 week period. we don't have to worry for another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z Euro makes us wait....and I guess it is probably right with the idea of waiting....big OV storm day 7/8 before the next big cold push Exactly where it tracks is still up in the air but a track west and north of us seems more likely than one right over us. That storm should deliver another nice cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z Euro makes us wait....and I guess it is probably right with the idea of waiting....big OV storm day 7/8 before the next big cold push I wish I could feel condident with the Euro on anything past 2 days, but unlike prior years, I can't GFS seems to be kickin' its butt this year, but that may not be a bad thing since the GEFS are looking much better past 7 days per NE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z Euro makes us wait....and I guess it is probably right with the idea of waiting....big OV storm day 7/8 before the next big cold push also takes any clipper or any marginal events that it gave us at 00z away. basically, no precip through day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm only out to day 9, but the look is certainly better than anything we have seen....that's 3 "good" runs in a row...too bad the skill at 216 hours isn't very good I think amplitude makes sense, Greg wrote an interesting CWG piece on the pattern and I think he's basically right. The pattern is in the process of changing but until the NAo goes negative most of our cold shots will be transient. Still there will be more of them opening the door somewhat for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 People keep referencing back-loaded winters like 1987 or 2005 or 2007. The problem I have with this is- those were all El Nino years. La Nina February's usually suck badly here. I have little faith in March as well. If you just play enso stats then your right. Odds are against. However, this Nina is not strong and is behaving quite differently that we would expect. It's more Nino'ish than Nina'ish so far. OND ENSO came in a .8. Plus, we have a raging +AO/NAO early on. History suggests that + cycle breaks down some during Jan and more during Feb. Best chance for aob temps is Feb imo. Does that mean good snow in feb? I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm pretty sure that isn't true...there may have been some discrete events where that was the case yesterday's phantom snow storm on the Euro that the GFS was correct on and the Sunday storm that the Euro had as a big rain storm that the GFS had basically weak and moving OTS come to mind maybe it's my selective weenie memory but the Euro seems to be following the GFS more than usual with respect to our sensible weather (or lack thereof) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Dec just missed the 2.282 AO record of Dec 06. Last month came in at 2.221. No other year comes close to the 1.459 / 2.221 Nov-Dec combo though. It's quite an anomalous run we're having. Sept @ .665, Oct @ .800 and then the 1.459 & 2.221 just recently. The back has to break eventually right? It will probably be march and april. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 yesterday's phantom snow storm on the Euro that the GFS was correct on and the Sunday storm that the Euro had as a big rain storm that the GFS had basically weak and moving OTS come to mind maybe it's my selective weenie memory but the Euro seems to be following the GFS more than usual with respect to our sensible weather (or lack thereof) the euro keeps overdoing storms around here in the midrange for a few runs but it's still clearly superior. just don't make anyone get those 500mb global verification maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Day 10 Euro is an icebox. Cross-polar flow right into our backyard. Ridging into Greenland at the same time as well. Euro keeps the AO weakly positive I'd say by eyeballing. As I said earlier in the day, I like this time period for a chance of some snow. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the euro keeps overdoing storms around here in the midrange for a few runs but it's still clearly superior. just don't make anyone get those 500mb global verification maps. that's why I specifically wrote "our sensible weather" when referencing the forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 that will be our coldest of the season if it pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Temps in the teens for the Patriots game on that Saturday and maybe 20s for the Ravens on Sunday? If Houston wins, that will certainly be a shock to their systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 CWG would probably rate that day a 1/10..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 not to harp on you, but you're comparing two different things...a global verification number is a lot different than a qualitative assessment over a small regional area.... for example, if you computed an average of global political instability you wouldn't use it to predict "regional" political instability, even if the "global" average 100% accurately predicted "global" political instability. i know what you're trying to say, but i'm sure you're confusing some readers, in a global verification the ECMWF has been superior for some time, this may not always translate to optimal performance of the model on a regional basis for given period of time. im not sure you understood my post at all but thanks for the lecture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 im not sure you understood my post at all but thanks for the lecture... i'm sorry if you took it as a lecture, just a general comment, i'll keep it to myself next time. maybe it's been discussed before, I don't have the opportunity to read through all the posts, so i apoligize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i'm sorry if you took it as a lecture, just a general comment, i'll keep it to myself next time. maybe it's been discussed before, I don't have the opportunity to read through all the posts, so i apoligize. my post might not have been necessary. but i was not implying anything different than what you typed. i just see people throw out the 500mb verification scores like their some grand proof of anything which i don't generally see them as. but still in my personal watchings i'd side with the euro more often than the gfs while of course trying to factor in the biases of each that i know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DC Folks - Can your area get snow with a +NAO? For Raleigh NC, I can't find any winter storms with a +NAO, I went through a lot, not all of them though. In our area we at least need the NAO to go neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DC Folks - Can your area get snow with a +NAO? For Raleigh NC, I can't find any winter storms with a +NAO, I went through a lot, not all of them though. In our area we at least need the NAO to go neutral. Yes but they're generally messy. Hard to get an all snow event with a +NAO unless everything is timed just right. I don't know the list off hand but I'm sure zwyts can name the most notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT's honking for a "MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE" and "some serious WHAMMO" by Days 9-10. http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I doubt that the negative nao lasts long as the heights will probably crash across greenaldn as the monster east coast vortex lifts northeast if the model is even right. Still the last couple of runs of the euro have shown a better looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 my post might not have been necessary. but i was not implying anything different than what you typed. i just see people throw out the 500mb verification scores like their some grand proof of anything which i don't generally see them as. but still in my personal watchings i'd side with the euro more often than the gfs while of course trying to factor in the biases of each that i know of. Of course 500 hPa AC skill isn't the be all in terms of verification, but it sure as heck beats picking one or two discrete events from an 8 day model forecast that never panned out as proof that model A is better than model B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 of course...He is by far the biggest Euro hugger known to man....nobody comes close...like clockwork, the second there is a good euro run he goes apesh-it I have all of next week off into MLK day. If there is a formidable snow event within 500 miles I will travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Of course 500 hPa AC skill isn't the be all in terms of verification, but it sure as heck beats picking one or two discrete events from an 8 day model forecast that never panned out as proof that model A is better than model B. i dont really disagree with that. and i'd rather just bow out of this conversation at this point to be honest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i dont really disagree with that. and i'd rather just bow out of this conversation at this point to be honest.. Fair enough....though I wasn't at all trying to be argumentative or anything of the sort (it seems we pretty much agree). If it is any consolation, we struggle with model verification all the time. It is a delicate balance with trying to come up with statistically sound, relevant metrics to get useful quantitative measures of skill and the actual qualitative (what forecasters actually see, use, etc.) aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Stolen from CoastalWx's post in the NE subforum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=51966 Feel free to fantasize, drool and fap away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There will probably be something in the OV....but it could be a stupid 4-8" event in like Central Indiana Yeah, it has to be 15"+ or can be lower combined with some high winds or some other anomalous situation. I'm not traveling for garden variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Fair enough....though I wasn't at all trying to be argumentative or anything of the sort (it seems we pretty much agree). If it is any consolation, we struggle with model verification all the time. It is a delicate balance with trying to come up with statistically sound, relevant metrics to get useful quantitative measures of skill and the actual qualitative (what forecasters actually see, use, etc.) aspects. no, i know. i just did not intend for it to be contentious at all other than perhaps going back to the discussion previously that perhaps people here have too much information at their disposal these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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