Ji Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 6z is a complete nightmare next week.. a slow moving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well since ooz was dry i would be inclined to disbelieve that run. How do you go from dry to rainstorm in 6 hours???? Just like s snowstorm to nothing. Dont buy it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think a big cold shot for next weekend (14-16th) looks pretty good right now. Much like the one we're experiencing now, this coming blast has been consistently progged for a couple days already and based on the ensembles, seems like a pretty robust solution. Also worth keeping an eye on for snow chances in that time. Although the NAO is still lousy, the PNA ridge looks good and I think the chance for some clipper snow is probably fair to good with an outside chance at something more exciting on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the D+11 from last night had 7 of the 10 dates getting measureable snow (more than an inch) within 4 days of the centered mean (jan 14) . That's way higher than any of the previous times this year suggesting that the pattern is indeed improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the D+11 from last night had 7 of the 10 dates getting measureable snow (more than an inch) within 4 days of the centered mean (jan 14) . That's way higher than any of the previous times this year suggesting that the pattern is indeed improving. Very nice. I like those odds. I'll go out on a limb and say most of us will see our first inch of snow by the 17th. Not too skinny of a limb from a climo perspective, but that's what happens in Winter 11-12. Of course, some lucky folks already got that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Very nice. I like those odds. I'll go out on a limb and say most of us will see our first inch of snow by the 17th. Not too skinny of a limb from a climo perspective, but that's what happens in Winter 11-12. Of course, some lucky folks already got that yesterday. I think the probabilities are probably still lower than 70% but probably are above the climo average despite the positive AO. it's the first time this season that I've gotten somewhat interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the D+11 from last night had 7 of the 10 dates getting measureable snow (more than an inch) within 4 days of the centered mean (jan 14) . That's way higher than any of the previous times this year suggesting that the pattern is indeed improving. Welcome to the party Wes, thanks for joining us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Welcome to the party Wes, thanks for joining us . I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are, I don't think 70% is a true probability for that 8 day period but only indicates that the pops is probably somewhat higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are, I don't think 70% is a true probability for that 8 day period but only indicates that the pops is probably somewhat higher than normal. With the way this winter is going i will be thrilled with a 50% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Probably RodneyS can give us the exact values, but if you took a historical look at January 11-16, what are the odds of getting 1" of snow in our area? I'd say probably 40-50% for the 'burbs and maybe 30% for downtown DC? If you say just a trace of snow, probably 75% 'burbs and 50% DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Probably RodneyS can give us the exact values, but if you took a historical look at January 11-16, what are the odds of getting 1" of snow in our area? I'd say probably 40-50% for the 'burbs and maybe 30% for downtown DC? If you say just a trace of snow, probably 75% 'burbs and 50% DC? Recent January's haven't been so kind though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Probably RodneyS can give us the exact values, but if you took a historical look at January 11-16, what are the odds of getting 1" of snow in our area? I'd say probably 40-50% for the 'burbs and maybe 30% for downtown DC? If you say just a trace of snow, probably 75% 'burbs and 50% DC? i think i posted the daily values for dca in a thread.. giving rodney the climo sheet was a mistake now no one pays attention to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 touche Well, either way, from a climo perspective, Jan 11-16 is near the peak. I think peak (from your post if memory serves) was very end of Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Probably RodneyS can give us the exact values, but if you took a historical look at January 11-16, what are the odds of getting 1" of snow in our area? I'd say probably 40-50% for the 'burbs and maybe 30% for downtown DC? If you say just a trace of snow, probably 75% 'burbs and 50% DC? if you look at a nine day period centered on the mean Jan 14, the climo for an inch is around 47%. If you only look at 5 days it snowed an inch or more 26 times in 123 years 21%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 this is a graph not counting last yr of 1" snow at dca by day.. we never get to 50% chance i dont think. i dont have the numbers on me they're at home but wes might have them handy. Graph showing number of times it has snowed 1" or more at D.C. on a given date, from 1888-2010 (the historical record period of snowfall). http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/the_december_5_coincidence.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That's an annoying run of the GFS so far. It says "you can have a GOM low, and you can have a trough, but you can't have them at the same time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Unless it's a rainstorm of historic proportions, like hr 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Unless it's a rainstorm of historic proportions, like hr 180... I don't see much hope prior to that rainstorm, then I'm semi hopeful though the GFS looks to be a roller coaster in terms of temps. The cross polar flow is the one nice aspect of the run. That pust some cold shots in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Unless it's a rainstorm of historic proportions, like hr 180... Good thing we don't have a snow pack. With that kind of storm, as depicted by the GFS, there would be a lot of flooding. Of course by 18z, the GFS may have this OTS. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I don't see much hope prior to that rainstorm, then I'm semi hopeful though the GFS looks to be a roller coaster in terms of temps. The cross polar flow is the one nice aspect of the run. That pust some cold shots in play. To what extent is it the polar flow giving us cold shots vs the powerful 'wrap around' effect of the 980mb, 1,000-mile impact low shown at hr 192? Good thing we don't have a snow pack. With that kind of storm, as depicted by the GFS, there would be a lot of flooding. Of course by 18z, the GFS may have this OTS. About 300 miles east would be great, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I don't see much hope prior to that rainstorm, then I'm semi hopeful though the GFS looks to be a roller coaster in terms of temps. The cross polar flow is the one nice aspect of the run. That pust some cold shots in play. Some nice higher pressures showing up across Canada. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 To what extent is it the polar flow giving us cold shots vs the powerful 'wrap around' effect of the 980mb, 1,000-mile impact low shown at hr 192? I think they are linked together and beyond that storm we might have a chance since the models probably will be very different in handling shortwaves. The atlantic remains troublesome as the blocking remains too far east to do us much good. About 300 miles east would be great, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think they are linked together and beyond that storm we might have a chance since the models probably will be very different in handling shortwaves. The atlantic remains troublesome as the blocking remains too far east to do us much good. Thanks, very interesting. So you're saying that it's pretty straightforward (shower/potential inch- event, then back to boring) until Thursday night, then basically an 'event horizon' that we can't see beyond... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I know it's far out there but things are looking alot different in the lr. Pretty decent ridge pushing through the Bering sea into the Chukchi. Even the most modest -nao (east based even) would pretty much put us in the ice box. We need to fire up the 10,000 propane heaters over greenland and start building some darn heights over there. The models are showing some encouraging signs in the future but not all of the ingredients are coming together. Why can't it just be a simple ao tanking and a big west based -nao setting up shop for a month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DCA will have snow between January 24th-26th or within 20-23 days...be patience snow lovers. You may want to start a countdown clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah, the pattern is certainly changing. Thing is, the new pattern, while an improvement, is still not an ideal one for us to get lots of snow...or even normal amounts of snow. We'll be going from a pattern that's above to well-above normal temps to one that is pretty much seasonable, so I'd rather take my odds with those kind of temps. You're right...if we can get a quick transient -NAO, that would really boost our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DCA will have snow between January 24th-26th or within 20-23 days...be patience snow lovers. You may want to start a countdown clock Will we be counting this snow in inches or feet? BTW...if you're just saying "trace of snow or more", that is really not a bold forecast since that is the climo peak for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DCA will have snow between January 24th-26th or within 20-23 days...be patience snow lovers. You may want to start a countdown clock That's one. Four more posts to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DCA will have snow between January 24th-26th or within 20-23 days...be patience snow lovers. You may want to start a countdown clock Do you have a method for this date? You have been 'banging the drum' for several months, but I never saw your science behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT honking about massive SSW on Facebook right now...talking about -AO developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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