ravensrule Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ji is desperate as usual DTK said the JMA is a good model and it verifies up there with the GFS. I guess this will be a good test, i have a feeling it will be plenty of rain so that part will verify right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The end of the euro is pretty odd. I'm not even sure how hr 216 can evolve in hr 240 @ 500. PV and atl do look better though. At the very least I can see the possibility of the nao going negative sometime down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I say we track the JMA this week. Sounds good to me. We need to weenie up and track anything that shows snow like the SE folks...they get excited about an ensemble member that shows snow....now that is blind hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I have very little hair to pull out and I wouldnt do it over the weather!!!! I,m. Too old for that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 DTK said the JMA is a good model and it verifies up there with the GFS. I guess this will be a good test, i have a feeling it will be plenty of rain so that part will verify right. it might be but i dont really care. for the most part looking at 12 models just confuses people. when a gfs/euro blend usually works why get all convoluted? sure if there are important questions to be answered and you are trying to build more of a brain superensemble -- but im not really that smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lots of changes on 18z Gfs...colder and drier for weekend then cold for entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm going on record in saying I don't think we should punt this weekend event. Not that that means anything to anyone, but I'm remaining optimistic this time. A 12z Euro/18z GFS blend would be nice. The Euro track and strength shifted slightly south and colder to the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro just yesterday morning had a decent snow for parts of the area for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I agree we shouldn't abandon all hope on Sunday. Still obviously some play in the track, but would be a temp issue even if the track gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm going on record in saying I don't think we should punt this weekend event. Not that that means anything to anyone, but I'm remaining optimistic this time. A 12z Euro/18z GFS blend would be nice. The Euro track and strength shifted slightly south and colder to the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro just yesterday morning had a decent snow for parts of the area for this time frame. you're a dreamer. the euro didnt really shift from 0z to 12z as much as it's stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I agree we shouldn't abandon all hope on Sunday. Still obviously some play in the track, but would be a temp issue even if the track gets better. knowing the euro there probably wont even be a storm other than some washed out pos sliding to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 you're a dreamer. the euro didnt really shift from 0z to 12z as much as it's stronger. I was wondering how long it would be before you slapped me down. What I wrote didn't come off as I meant it. Yes, I know the Euro didn't shift. What I meant was, if the Euro were to shift toward the GFS and vice versa, we might pull off a snow. I still think it's possible. I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DTK said the JMA is a good model and it verifies up there with the GFS. I guess this will be a good test, i have a feeling it will be plenty of rain so that part will verify right. Eh, I said that...but I didn't imply it should be used if it's an outlier (also, GFS>JMA....it's just that the gap isn't as huge as people seem to claim). Also, if you don't look at it regularly you probably shouldn't look at it at all (especially for higher impact events). I (sort of) agree with Ian; and looking at so many models is really pointless if you don't really know anything about them (or have been looking at them long enough to understand their strengths/weaknesses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Eh, I said that...but I didn't imply it should be used if it's an outlier (also, GFS>JMA....it's just that the gap isn't as huge as people seem to claim). Also, if you don't look at it regularly you probably shouldn't look at it at all (especially for higher impact events). I (sort of) agree with Ian; and looking at so many models is really pointless if you don't really know anything about them (or have been looking at them long enough to understand their strengths/weaknesses). i wasnt trying to be dismissive of your previous post, fwiw. i just think plenty of folks here and similar places get so lost in model land they don't actually get very far. it's not quite cotton picking for the best data but perhaps needless extra hope for an improbable solution. knowing and factoring in model biases is of course useful. i dont really know much about the jma except it did well on some storm some time. i personally try to minimize my time spent on these sorts of things so i dont generally look past the american/euro combo unless it's more critical to get an idea on questionable details by looking for support etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 knowing the euro there probably wont even be a storm other than some washed out pos sliding to our south Perhaps, but I think having the Euro and GFS both show a storm gives it some credibility of existance. http://policlimate.c...xt_ao_bias.html Can you translate that lump of spaghetti for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Its gon happen. I will be flying back from MIA to DCA sunday, im sure this will take place now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Its gon happen. I will be flying back from MIA to DCA sunday, im sure this will take place now Stranger things have happened. North trend? LOL! This winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i wasnt trying to be dismissive of your previous post, fwiw. i just think plenty of folks here and similar places get so lost in model land they don't actually get very far. it's not quite cotton picking for the best data but perhaps needless extra hope for an improbable solution. knowing and factoring in model biases is of course useful. i dont really know much about the jma except it did well on some storm some time. i personally try to minimize my time spent on these sorts of things so i dont generally look past the american/euro combo unless it's more critical to get an idea on questionable details by looking for support etc. I didn't get the impression at all that you were being dismissive (and your point of people getting lost in model land is well taken). I just wanted to clarify that I wasn't really advocating using the JMA as your go-to model when I was simply trying to point out it isn't really a "terrible model". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I agree we shouldn't abandon all hope on Sunday. Still obviously some play in the track, but would be a temp issue even if the track gets better. I think that is the big issue and doubt it can be overcome as there won't be any low level cold air around as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Can you translate that lump of spaghetti for me? significant negative ao coming at least till 0z is in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 significant negative ao coming at least till 0z is in Severe season will be rocking. In other words, the plains will shift east this year and you will be treated to massive CB towers all around DC for photo ops. Then a tornado will no damage your neighborhood but will provide a great photo op as it drops in to visit you and shake your hand. Meanwhile, Ellinwood will be sad that he missed it in Gaithersburg. Ji will cancel next winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i came across this and was surprised to see the gfs in dead last out of the all models. this was from 144 hours out at 500mb for 0z 1.3.12 here is all the euro and gfs model runs compared for each cycle, and yes it looks like the 6z and 18z are the worst runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z GFS: Chilly and dry this upcoming weekend. Not even a hint of any precip. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z GFS: Chilly and dry this upcoming weekend. Not even a hint of any precip. MDstorm the whole run is dry up to 240 hrs. Man what a winter. Nothing else left to say. I can't believe it stays like this but I guess we shall see. After a brief warm up,, almost the whole country goes cold. I would think something would pop soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z GFS: Chilly and dry this upcoming weekend. Not even a hint of any precip. MDstorm the year of the phantom storm and the gfs owning the euro in the mid-range. (just dont tell the fancy global 500mb lines) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has a clipper next Monday...probably goes to our north, but we get "clipped" as of now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has a clipper next Monday...probably goes to our north, but we get "clipped" as of now... maybe early next week is our best chance to get something small and marginal to get on the board......PNA spike and the NAO looks serviceable for a brief period....probably still low probability, but if the goal is a 1" event, it might be doable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Another decent euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Another decent euro run It is a decent run huh? Atlantic looking semi attractive in 192-216+. Pretty chilly overall. Some ridging around the aleutians. Not there yet but an overall nice look and maybe everything continues to improve through mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The similarities with the 00Z 500 mb @ 10 days for both the op and ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro are striking with the amount of agreement they have. It's not a great look by any stretch of the imagination but definitely better then what we have dealt with up to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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