Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 0z Euro....the Sunday storm the low tracks right over us...all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 0z Euro....the Sunday storm the low tracks right over us...all rain just a really sad run....just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 just a really sad run....just awful Probably the worst run of the year. Pattern change and winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Luckily uro ensembles don't support the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Luckily uro ensembles don't support the op I'm curious at what you are seeing that makes you think the ensembles don't support the op? To me, except for the ridging over Western Europe, they look fairly similar on the placement of the features when you take into consideration the smoothing created with the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm curious at what you are seeing that makes you think the ensembles don't support the op? To me, except for the ridging over Western Europe, they look fairly similar on the placement of the features when you take into consideration the smoothing created with the ensemble. the trough on the OP is in the west while on the ensembles its in the east for day 10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 just a really sad run....just awful Hang in Matt. Lots of flip flopping going on, but at least on this run there's precip for the weekend. We went from snow yesterday morning to nothing at 12z to rain now. We've got time to get it back. Ensembles and GFS are colder. Pattern seems to be getting better, more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 the trough on the OP is in the west while on the ensembles its in the east for day 10 http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html This is what I have for the day 10 op. It looks similar in placement to the Ensemble to me. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. You're a super optimist. I don't see much hope for the 1st half of January in terms of snow. We probably will have another shot of cold nice below normal temps after day 10. The pattern is getting incrementally better but still has a ways to got. The polar vortex is weakening which may allow the AO to go negative though the noa may be a little harder to nudge into negative territory. Still any time the ridge out west builds we'll get a shot of cold air. Those shots will be our chances for getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Strat Temp is warming and finally looks like after this weekend warm up more cold air on the way. NAO looks like it might go(-negative) real soon and the AO going (-negative) too. Is this the pattern change finally? I sure do hope so & Jan 12 on the GFS is looking interesting. Could be our first chance of snow but I am not counting on it this far out. But looks interesting I have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I don't know about a stratospheric pattern change, but there's certainly more activity of interest on the 12Z GFS at 120hrs and then after 180, even if it's wet activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is what I have for the day 10 op. It looks similar in placement to the Ensemble to me. What am I missing? not that it matters much because it is day 10, but that is another transient trough....that pattern is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Naturally, since I'm flying across the Atlantic on Sunday, the threat of a storm exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 not that it matters much because it is day 10, but that is another transient trough....that pattern is terrible The pattern remains bad though the gfs out in la la land shows a kind of interesting 500h pattern around the 15th. It doesn't have a low but does have high heights over Greenland for a very short period. That could be a window that gives us a chance. Then the ridge retrogresses and looks like it want to put the trough in the west towards the end of the pd. That might fit the MJO. The polar vortex continues to weaken as it gets hit by stratospheric warming events. None yet look to downwell enough yet for a major pattern change but do suggest one will be possible towards the end of the month. I'm not quite as down on the pattern as I was a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Naturally, since I'm flying across the Atlantic on Sunday, the threat of a storm exists. Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You're a super optimist. Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north I love Wes. Realism >> weenie fantasies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north For once, I like your realism Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 More rain in jan just what the doctor ordered for the first week of the new year. No offense to you, just nothing new!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I love Wes. Realism >> weenie fantasies i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Heh, gfs says the chase for a change continues into the unmodeled future. Probably a useless stat but the only year I can find with the AO staying positive for Sept-Dec and increasing from Oct - Nov - December is 75-76. Jan 76 was basically neutral befor spiking again in Feb. Jeez this is a frustrating winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here They could always be right as the progs past day 4 shows lots of uncertainty. Still, it's not looking good through day 10 unless we get really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 They could always be right as the progs past day 4 shows lots of uncertainty. Still, it's not looking good through day 10 unless we get really lucky. Which we know never happens around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is nothing to look forward to. Nothing. Any meaningful change will take at least 2 weeks to establish itself. Anytime before MLK day is lost. Our winter will need to happen in 6 weeks. If we are at MLK day and see no real pattern change, we might as well fold the tent until at least mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is nothing to look forward to. Nothing. Any meaningful change will take at least 2 weeks to establish itself. Anytime before MLK day is lost. Our winter will need to happen in 6 weeks. If we are at MLK day and see no real pattern change, we might as well fold the tent until at least mid February. Pretty much feel the same way. It's like double punishment for 09-10. Last year had the cold and it snowed all around us and this year has no cold or snow anywhere around us. Feast or famine sucks. Maybe I don't remember correctly but winters seemed much different growing up in the 70's and 80's. Lotsa of normal 2-4's and 3-6's and the occaisional big storm. Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. I'm getting old though so I may not know what the heck I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Pretty much feel the same way. It's like double punishment for 09-10. Last year had the cold and it snowed all around us and this year has no cold or snow anywhere around us. Feast or famine sucks. Maybe I don't remember correctly but winters seemed much different growing up in the 70's and 80's. Lotsa of normal 2-4's and 3-6's and the occaisional big storm. Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. I'm getting old though so I may not know what the heck I'm talking about. Global warming Or better yet, all the cold/snow will come December 2012, right before the world ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. That is certainly the case, really going back to PD2 or perhaps even '93 or '96. Lots of feast or famine for much of the eastern CONUS in the last 10-20 years. I think the variability about the mean/median has certainly gotten larger in that time period...with many weather categories, not just snow. Whether that's got to do with climate change or just a long term cycle (e.g., PDO, AMO) is open for discussion. My personal opinion is probably a bit of both with climate change the larger factor, but not overwhelmingly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here They're not part of the clique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 euro is way different the big closed off low is much slower cold air is rushing in with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 northern branch dives in and crushes the closed low to nothing, looks like maybe some snow from ashville to roa. hr 210. odd run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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