January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

[usedtobe]

Nobody mentioned the 192 hour GFS thing that will almost surely happen?

It vaporized on the 06Z guidance. The pattern isn't quite as bad as it's been as now we can build high pressure occasionally so there should be more cold shots which increasing our chances of a thread the needle kind of event. I don't see one yet and suspect any will hold out until after the middle of the month but that's just a guess.

[Bob Chill]

I took 4 days off from looking at models. Probably for the best anyway. A bit of a different look but still not conducive. I have a feeling we get lucky in the next week to 10 days though. Ridge out west pushes multiple troughs through the ec. Super fast flow it looks like but you gotta wonder if we can time something. Looks like 2-3 cold shots in the next couple of weeks. No reason to think it's impossible to get a well timed minor event.

I didn't like seeing the gfs stick the pv right over greenland in the lr. That's a step in the wrong direction for sure.

[usedtobe]

I took 4 days off from looking at models. Probably for the best anyway. A bit of a different look but still not conducive. I have a feeling we get lucky in the next week to 10 days though. Ridge out west pushes multiple troughs through the ec. Super fast flow it looks like but you gotta wonder if we can time something. Looks like 2-3 cold shots in the next couple of weeks. No reason to think it's impossible to get a well timed minor event.

I didn't like seeing the gfs stick the pv right over greenland in the lr. That's a step in the wrong direction for sure.

I think the pattern is a little better and some of the ensemble members are having the ao go negative. Don Sutherland had a nice reasoned post about the guidance in the Weather and Forecasting main forum medium range discussion.

[SNO]

We are closing in on coming out of the wretched pattern...January 24th-26th looks like that prediction made two months ago will work out nicely.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think the pattern is a little better and some of the ensemble members are having the ao go negative. Don Sutherland had a nice reasoned post about the guidance in the Weather and Forecasting main forum medium range discussion.

I don't understand the graphics at the NOAA site. It already has the AO well into negative territory. Also, in Don's post, he mentions the MJO. On the NOAA site, there is no position indicated for JAN 1.

[Bob Chill]

I don't understand the graphics at the NOAA site. It already has the AO well into negative territory. Also, in Don's post, he mentions the MJO. On the NOAA site, there is no position indicated for JAN 1.

AO has been screwey. It has to be some sort of data error because it's happened several times recently. The daily for yesterday was almost +3.

Whenever you see weird stuff in the forecast graph, use this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I don't understand the graphics at the NOAA site. It already has the AO well into negative territory. Also, in Don's post, he mentions the MJO. On the NOAA site, there is no position indicated for JAN 1.

you must of missed this near the top of the page

Note: We are aware that the AO index page is having problems. It will be fixed as soon as we can, and please bear with us during this inconvenience.

and here is the updated mjo

[usedtobe]

AO has been screwey. It has to be some sort of data error because it's happened several times recently. The daily for yesterday was almost +3.

Whenever you see weird stuff in the forecast graph, use this link: http://www.cpc.ncep....x/ao_index.html

You beat me to it, the ensemble measurements sometimes seem to have some type of glitch. Here's another look that shows it positive

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

[WinterWxLuvr]

you must of missed this near the top of the page

Note: We are aware that the AO index page is having problems. It will be fixed as soon as we can, and please bear with us during this inconvenience.

and here is the updated mjo

Maybe they should have made it flash for people like me. Wow.

That MJO diagram must have updated right after I looked at it. I still had it up in another window and when I refreshed it, after your post, I got the new one. One positive is that after this trip into the COD, it emerges much further toward the better phases than last time.

Thanks for the corrections.

[WinterWxLuvr]

AO has been screwey. It has to be some sort of data error because it's happened several times recently. The daily for yesterday was almost +3.

Whenever you see weird stuff in the forecast graph, use this link: http://www.cpc.ncep....x/ao_index.html

Appreciate the heads up, Bob.

Thanks.

[Bob Chill]

I think the pattern is a little better and some of the ensemble members are having the ao go negative. Don Sutherland had a nice reasoned post about the guidance in the Weather and Forecasting main forum medium range discussion.

Just read Don's writeup. He's incredibly sharp for not having a red tag. Even a relaxation of the current pattern is fine. We've been pretty lucky with not having a fat and stable se ridge. +NAO's can easily let the se ridge build but we've been lucky with a fast and progressive flow and occasional +PNA.

If we can get a -ao and flood the northern tier with cold air we can still pull something off with a mildly negative or neutral pna. Lots of possiblities this time of year vs Dec.

I think the monthly Dec AO will break the record of 2.282 in Dec of 2006. It will be interesting to see where this Dec comes in. My rough eyeball math looks like it will come in just above 2.3.

[usedtobe]

Just read Don's writeup. He's incredibly sharp for not having a red tag. Even a relaxation of the current pattern is fine. We've been pretty lucky with not having a fat and stable se ridge. +NAO's can easily let the se ridge build but we've been lucky with a fast and progressive flow and occasional +PNA.

If we can get a -ao and flood the northern tier with cold air we can still pull something off with a mildly negative or neutral pna. Lots of possiblities this time of year vs Dec.

I think the monthly Dec AO will break the record of 2.282 in Dec of 2006. It will be interesting to see where this Dec comes in. My rough eyeball math looks like it will come in just above 2.3.

Taht is one of the years that keeps popping up on the CPC analogs along with 2008. oddly both ended up with 1.3 inches of snow for the month of Jan but 07 had 5.9 in feb, I don't necessarily think looking only at two months means much but the AO certainly was strongly positive.

[aldie 22]

Taht is one of the years that keeps popping up on the CPC analogs along with 2008. oddly both ended up with 1.3 inches of snow for the month of Jan but 07 had 5.9 in feb, I don't necessarily think looking only at two months means much but the AO certainly was strongly positive.

Feb 07 was actually one of my favorite winter months...the sleet storm was fun to me...I know others hated it but I loved it...cold too

[Bob Chill]

Taht is one of the years that keeps popping up on the CPC analogs along with 2008. oddly both ended up with 1.3 inches of snow for the month of Jan but 07 had 5.9 in feb, I don't necessarily think looking only at two months means much but the AO certainly was strongly positive.

I've stayed away from 06-07 just because of ENSO. It was a decent Nino year. 07-08 fits better because it was a Nina. However, this winter has really behaved Nino-ish in many ways. Surprisingly so IMO. Snowfall out west looks just like an early season Nino year. 06-07 might not be a bad analog year afterall. At least from a teleconnection standpoint.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the crazy +AO breaking down. We could have an outright flip this year because the overall length of the + regime has been about 4 months now. Just a guess but we may end up with a nice backloaded winter afterall. If we can get some sort of sustained neg ao I would think the nao would follow. They seem to be loosely tied during the winter. Especially during anomalous stretches.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

have you hugged your ggem lately

[WxUSAF]

12z GFS not at all supported by the ensembles, IMO. The Op drops the -EPO/-PNA combo and keeps a weak +EPO/+PNA pattern which gives us a fairly seasonable/chilly run, but really not a pattern change. Keeps the AO and NAO both strongly positive. In the long range, the ensemble mean goes for a -EPO/-PNA combo with a neutral to negative AO and probably weakly positive (at most) NAO. Some north atlantic ridging as well.

[usedtobe]

12z GFS not at all supported by the ensembles, IMO. The Op drops the -EPO/-PNA combo and keeps a weak +EPO/+PNA pattern which gives us a fairly seasonable/chilly run, but really not a pattern change. Keeps the AO and NAO both strongly positive. In the long range, the ensemble mean goes for a -EPO/-PNA combo with a neutral to negative AO and probably weakly positive (at most) NAO. Some north atlantic ridging as well.

The trend on the euro is encouraging at 240 hrs it's getting a negative ao look though the noa still probably is weakly positive. It also keeps a PNA look. It will be interesting to see what its ens mean does.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The trend on the euro is encouraging at 240 hrs it's getting a negative ao look though the noa still probably is weakly positive. It also keeps a PNA look. It will be interesting to see what its ens mean does.

I have no faith in a ten day forecast, but that storm coming out of the southeast and up the coast looks interesting. Modeled too warm right now, but I always get interested in that track.

[BethesdaWX]

When February rolls around we'll look back at all this and lol. Remember the solar relative budget theory called it first.

[H2O]

When February rolls around we'll look back at all this and lol. Remember the solar relative budget theory called it first.

Sure. The SRBT just doesn't roll off the tongue tho. I think the MUSTEW theory is better. It is the Make Up Shyt To Explain Weather theory.

[mattie g]

Feb 07 was actually one of my favorite winter months...the sleet storm was fun to me...I know others hated it but I loved it...cold too

I suppose I'd take another storm like that. We were in Fairlington at the time, and I seem to recall that we were supposed to change over to all rain fairly early in the storm, but it never happened - superCAD won out. I've never seen that much sleet in my life.

[mitchnick]

Feb 07 was actually one of my favorite winter months...the sleet storm was fun to me...I know others hated it but I loved it...cold too

if I hadn't lost power for 2 days after the ice/sleet storm (having nothing to do with the storm but caused by some plumbers who struck the power line the summer before when replacing some pipes), I could have lived with it

the concrete sleet was similar to 1/94 as it seemingly stuck around all month

[BethesdaWX]

Sure. The SRBT just doesn't roll off the tongue tho. I think the MUSTEW theory is better. It is the Make Up Shyt To Explain Weather theory.

That might work for you or SNO, but this is only taking our current Interplanetary Magnetic Field state to choose proper analogs (1967/68, 1978/79, 1989/90, 1999/00 are in tune with change in the field position), then using the variability the AP index 6 year ago, current ENSO/GLAM in relation to that in itself, to determine how the GLAM will change in the future, which naturally incorporates the cycle of the MJO.

It is often ridiculed but it hasn't failed be since I started experimenting with it in 2009.

[usedtobe]

I have no faith in a ten day forecast, but that storm coming out of the southeast and up the coast looks interesting. Modeled too warm right now, but I always get interested in that track.

I don't see anything until after the day 10, the track of the low if one even exists will probalby be too far west but by day 10 the pattern and shortwaves will probably be configured different than shown on the euro or any model. If you look at the ens members they differ alot.

[ORH_wxman]

The trend on the euro is encouraging at 240 hrs it's getting a negative ao look though the noa still probably is weakly positive. It also keeps a PNA look. It will be interesting to see what its ens mean does.

The 11-15 day def has a -PNA on the Euro ensembles...but it looks like it might want to start relaxing at the end of the ensemble run...but take that with a grain a salt of course given the time frame.

I have some hope the NAO might try and at least go near neutral or somewhat negative by the end of January if we can get the MJO into phases 8,1 and 2...but it might remain too weak.

[marked8]

I suppose I'd take another storm like that. We were in Fairlington at the time, and I seem to recall that we were supposed to change over to all rain fairly early in the storm, but it never happened - superCAD won out. I've never seen that much sleet in my life.

The February 1987 sleet storm in central North Carolina made the '07 sleet storm look very meek. We had 8 inches of sleet out of that storm at my house. At this point I would settle for just about anything frozen.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

slight change with the ncep gefs

[nw baltimore wx]

slight change with the ncep gefs

It's a good thing that the verification on any of those models has been pretty bad over at least the last couple of months. Hopefully it continues the trend.

[Amped]

GFS clips the outer banks with 1/9 however Plenty of time to trend NW and give us our .01" for the winter.

[EasternUSWX]

Maybe?