mappy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 They could always be right as the progs past day 4 shows lots of uncertainty. Still, it's not looking good through day 10 unless we get really lucky. Which we know never happens around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is nothing to look forward to. Nothing. Any meaningful change will take at least 2 weeks to establish itself. Anytime before MLK day is lost. Our winter will need to happen in 6 weeks. If we are at MLK day and see no real pattern change, we might as well fold the tent until at least mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is nothing to look forward to. Nothing. Any meaningful change will take at least 2 weeks to establish itself. Anytime before MLK day is lost. Our winter will need to happen in 6 weeks. If we are at MLK day and see no real pattern change, we might as well fold the tent until at least mid February. Pretty much feel the same way. It's like double punishment for 09-10. Last year had the cold and it snowed all around us and this year has no cold or snow anywhere around us. Feast or famine sucks. Maybe I don't remember correctly but winters seemed much different growing up in the 70's and 80's. Lotsa of normal 2-4's and 3-6's and the occaisional big storm. Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. I'm getting old though so I may not know what the heck I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Pretty much feel the same way. It's like double punishment for 09-10. Last year had the cold and it snowed all around us and this year has no cold or snow anywhere around us. Feast or famine sucks. Maybe I don't remember correctly but winters seemed much different growing up in the 70's and 80's. Lotsa of normal 2-4's and 3-6's and the occaisional big storm. Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. I'm getting old though so I may not know what the heck I'm talking about. Global warming Or better yet, all the cold/snow will come December 2012, right before the world ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Big storms seem more common the last 5 years or so and small storms seem much less common. That is certainly the case, really going back to PD2 or perhaps even '93 or '96. Lots of feast or famine for much of the eastern CONUS in the last 10-20 years. I think the variability about the mean/median has certainly gotten larger in that time period...with many weather categories, not just snow. Whether that's got to do with climate change or just a long term cycle (e.g., PDO, AMO) is open for discussion. My personal opinion is probably a bit of both with climate change the larger factor, but not overwhelmingly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here They're not part of the clique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 euro is way different the big closed off low is much slower cold air is rushing in with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 northern branch dives in and crushes the closed low to nothing, looks like maybe some snow from ashville to roa. hr 210. odd run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Global warming Or better yet, all the cold/snow will come December 2012, right before the world ends. Or, even better, a 48 inch, 48 hour snow storm will be modeled to perfection for Dec 22-24, 2012. Just as the first flakes start to fall late on Dec. 21..................booooooommmmmm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Or, even better, a 48 inch, 48 hour snow storm will be modeled to perfection for Dec 22-24, 2012. Just as the first flakes start to fall late on Dec. 21..................booooooommmmmm! You are a cruel person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 day 10 euro looks better in the Atlantic than it has in a while....of course it is day 10.... Day 10 always seems to look good... it never pans out. We probably have like a month left to get our snows -- late Jan into late Feb... and that should be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there may be a changeover on Sunday....wouldn't be much.... :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 it does?....which euro runs prior to this looked good on day 10? I didn't mean this year, I meant overall. The day 10 Euro always seems to get us hyped up... and then as we get closer it gets taken away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there may be a changeover on Sunday....wouldn't be much.... Those always work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 probably not even a few flakes... we have to get snow at some point....we've never been shut out 72-73 and 97-98 had 0.1" at DCA. That's pretty close to one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 day 10 euro looks better in the Atlantic than it has in a while....of course it is day 10.... I agree, it does look a little better. I thought that after day 10 the gfs also looked interesting around the 15th before the retrogression in the pacific messes up the pattern again. around the 14th or 15th I think might be a period where we have a chance but that of course depends on how good the models are at day 10 and they usually aren't accurate at all. However, HM has pointed to a GLAAM spike which could lead to some trofiness along the east coast down the line sO I think the idea of another period of amplification probably is right. Still I'd like to see a clear negative NAO signal because without it, we are even more thread the needle than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 probably not even a few flakes... we have to get snow at some point....we've never been shut out I sure hope I never have to bump this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I sure hope I never have to bump this post I am with Matt, there is no way we get shut out. I will take anyone's bet who wants to argue the other way. Except Wes because then he will be right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 probably not even a few flakes... we have to get snow at some point....we've never been shut out no we dont...we dont have to get snow. Didnt we have 2 0.1 years at DCA? I hope JB is right about El Nino next winter..this has become unbearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I am with Matt, there is no way we get shut out. I will take anyone's bet who wants to argue the other way. no, I'm not saying I think we get shut out I'm just hoping I don't have to bump the post since there's always a first time for everything when it comes to getting screwed on snow around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 no, I'm not saying I think we get shut out I'm just hoping I don't have to bump the post since there's always a first time for everything when it comes to getting screwed on snow around here That is true but even from an odds standpoint we have only been close to being shutout twice in 140 years so as a betting man it is a pretty good bet. Plus i am with Bethesda Boy the solar crap he is talking about means we will have a massive February . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We will probably get shutout eventually. Like when we start averaging 50+ 100 degree days like the sky is falling climate dudes are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LOL at the NHL for selecting DC for the winter classic in the next 1-3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LOL at the NHL for selecting DC for the winter classic in the next 1-3 years talk about threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 the normally warm JMA has a snowstorm on the 8th and 9th. We will see. this is pretty shocking because the JMA tends to run warmer than most models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Why? They had an outdoor game in vegas when it was like in the 60s! The temperature isnt really the issue its rain. LOL at the NHL for selecting DC for the winter classic in the next 1-3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Tasselmweyer on wbal just said that were getting an uper level disturbance tomorrow night and ut may accumulate some. What the heck?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Isnt this the on/off precip that the gfs has been showing lately???IDont know what tbe. Euro. Has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ji is desperate as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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