H2O Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 When February rolls around we'll look back at all this and lol. Remember the solar relative budget theory called it first. Sure. The SRBT just doesn't roll off the tongue tho. I think the MUSTEW theory is better. It is the Make Up Shyt To Explain Weather theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Feb 07 was actually one of my favorite winter months...the sleet storm was fun to me...I know others hated it but I loved it...cold too I suppose I'd take another storm like that. We were in Fairlington at the time, and I seem to recall that we were supposed to change over to all rain fairly early in the storm, but it never happened - superCAD won out. I've never seen that much sleet in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Feb 07 was actually one of my favorite winter months...the sleet storm was fun to me...I know others hated it but I loved it...cold too if I hadn't lost power for 2 days after the ice/sleet storm (having nothing to do with the storm but caused by some plumbers who struck the power line the summer before when replacing some pipes), I could have lived with it the concrete sleet was similar to 1/94 as it seemingly stuck around all month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Sure. The SRBT just doesn't roll off the tongue tho. I think the MUSTEW theory is better. It is the Make Up Shyt To Explain Weather theory. That might work for you or SNO, but this is only taking our current Interplanetary Magnetic Field state to choose proper analogs (1967/68, 1978/79, 1989/90, 1999/00 are in tune with change in the field position), then using the variability the AP index 6 year ago, current ENSO/GLAM in relation to that in itself, to determine how the GLAM will change in the future, which naturally incorporates the cycle of the MJO. It is often ridiculed but it hasn't failed be since I started experimenting with it in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I have no faith in a ten day forecast, but that storm coming out of the southeast and up the coast looks interesting. Modeled too warm right now, but I always get interested in that track. I don't see anything until after the day 10, the track of the low if one even exists will probalby be too far west but by day 10 the pattern and shortwaves will probably be configured different than shown on the euro or any model. If you look at the ens members they differ alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The trend on the euro is encouraging at 240 hrs it's getting a negative ao look though the noa still probably is weakly positive. It also keeps a PNA look. It will be interesting to see what its ens mean does. The 11-15 day def has a -PNA on the Euro ensembles...but it looks like it might want to start relaxing at the end of the ensemble run...but take that with a grain a salt of course given the time frame. I have some hope the NAO might try and at least go near neutral or somewhat negative by the end of January if we can get the MJO into phases 8,1 and 2...but it might remain too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I suppose I'd take another storm like that. We were in Fairlington at the time, and I seem to recall that we were supposed to change over to all rain fairly early in the storm, but it never happened - superCAD won out. I've never seen that much sleet in my life. The February 1987 sleet storm in central North Carolina made the '07 sleet storm look very meek. We had 8 inches of sleet out of that storm at my house. At this point I would settle for just about anything frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 slight change with the ncep gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 slight change with the ncep gefs It's a good thing that the verification on any of those models has been pretty bad over at least the last couple of months. Hopefully it continues the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS clips the outer banks with 1/9 however Plenty of time to trend NW and give us our .01" for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 just a really sad run....just awful Probably the worst run of the year. Pattern change and winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Luckily uro ensembles don't support the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Luckily uro ensembles don't support the op I'm curious at what you are seeing that makes you think the ensembles don't support the op? To me, except for the ridging over Western Europe, they look fairly similar on the placement of the features when you take into consideration the smoothing created with the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm curious at what you are seeing that makes you think the ensembles don't support the op? To me, except for the ridging over Western Europe, they look fairly similar on the placement of the features when you take into consideration the smoothing created with the ensemble. the trough on the OP is in the west while on the ensembles its in the east for day 10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 just a really sad run....just awful Hang in Matt. Lots of flip flopping going on, but at least on this run there's precip for the weekend. We went from snow yesterday morning to nothing at 12z to rain now. We've got time to get it back. Ensembles and GFS are colder. Pattern seems to be getting better, more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 the trough on the OP is in the west while on the ensembles its in the east for day 10 http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html This is what I have for the day 10 op. It looks similar in placement to the Ensemble to me. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think our shots will become more frequent. I don't think we should punt on the 5-7 day period yet, either. You're a super optimist. I don't see much hope for the 1st half of January in terms of snow. We probably will have another shot of cold nice below normal temps after day 10. The pattern is getting incrementally better but still has a ways to got. The polar vortex is weakening which may allow the AO to go negative though the noa may be a little harder to nudge into negative territory. Still any time the ridge out west builds we'll get a shot of cold air. Those shots will be our chances for getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Strat Temp is warming and finally looks like after this weekend warm up more cold air on the way. NAO looks like it might go(-negative) real soon and the AO going (-negative) too. Is this the pattern change finally? I sure do hope so & Jan 12 on the GFS is looking interesting. Could be our first chance of snow but I am not counting on it this far out. But looks interesting I have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I don't know about a stratospheric pattern change, but there's certainly more activity of interest on the 12Z GFS at 120hrs and then after 180, even if it's wet activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Naturally, since I'm flying across the Atlantic on Sunday, the threat of a storm exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 not that it matters much because it is day 10, but that is another transient trough....that pattern is terrible The pattern remains bad though the gfs out in la la land shows a kind of interesting 500h pattern around the 15th. It doesn't have a low but does have high heights over Greenland for a very short period. That could be a window that gives us a chance. Then the ridge retrogresses and looks like it want to put the trough in the west towards the end of the pd. That might fit the MJO. The polar vortex continues to weaken as it gets hit by stratospheric warming events. None yet look to downwell enough yet for a major pattern change but do suggest one will be possible towards the end of the month. I'm not quite as down on the pattern as I was a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Naturally, since I'm flying across the Atlantic on Sunday, the threat of a storm exists. Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You're a super optimist. Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north I love Wes. Realism >> weenie fantasies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not in the next 10 days unless you like rain or live to our north For once, I like your realism Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 More rain in jan just what the doctor ordered for the first week of the new year. No offense to you, just nothing new!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I love Wes. Realism >> weenie fantasies i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Heh, gfs says the chase for a change continues into the unmodeled future. Probably a useless stat but the only year I can find with the AO staying positive for Sept-Dec and increasing from Oct - Nov - December is 75-76. Jan 76 was basically neutral befor spiking again in Feb. Jeez this is a frustrating winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i see a lot of people i dont recognize talking about snow threats here They could always be right as the progs past day 4 shows lots of uncertainty. Still, it's not looking good through day 10 unless we get really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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