usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Today's thoughts are at the end of the CWG January outlook post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now. doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct???? you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right) where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The temperature jumped from 32 at 7AM to currently 55. South wind is starting to crank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here. They have the vortex north of hudson bay which still is a warmer than normal look for here so I wouldn't worry about a prolonged cold spell anytime soon though the next couple of days will be downright cold and blustery. I wrote something on the pattern in the CWG Jan pattern/snowfall thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Warning -- 8-12" -- at least a little fun to be had. Edit: LWX is more optimistic than PIT -- going for 8-14"+ http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ505&warncounty=WVC071&firewxzone=WVZ505&local_place1=2+Miles+SE+Onego+WV&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Warning -- 8-12" -- at least a little fun to be had. Edit: LWX is more optimistic than PIT -- going for 8-14"+ http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning looking at the Wisp webcams this morning, you guys need it bad enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 looking at the Wisp webcams this morning, you guys need it bad enjoy! I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? the GL are so warm, even if not ideal, they should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year to all! I'll echo what everyone else said, that even with the lack of winter weather this year I find Wes' insights and comments extremely valuable. Even if "repetitious" and depressing to read in the current pattern we've been dealt. Sometimes, that's just how it goes. Not much to be done about the pattern except to hope for something good to happen at some point before mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg I think the Titanic got thrown under the bus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? The winds are expected to be from the northwest later tomorrow into Tuesday when the snow will be heaviest. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ041&warncounty=WVC093&firewxzone=WVZ041&local_place1=Thomas+WV&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The winds are expected to be from the northwest later tomorrow into Tuesday when the snow will be heaviest. http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning You should do great, the trajectories look like they will be from over the lakes an my traverse both huron and erie. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 You should do great, the trajectories look like they will be from over the lakes an my traverse both huron and erie. Good luck. Thanks. Too bad this couldn't have come a couple days earlier. Its unfortunate that the people here over the holidays had to deal with patchy snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Twitter fail: they corrected it a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year to all! I'll echo what everyone else said, that even with the lack of winter weather this year I find Wes' insights and comments extremely valuable. Even if "repetitious" and depressing to read in the current pattern we've been dealt. Sometimes, that's just how it goes. Not much to be done about the pattern except to hope for something good to happen at some point before mid-March. Here's one that probably has no value. I looked the today's CPC D+11 analogs. The analog dates only identified two days in a ten day window of the centered mean that got snow. 1972 which was one day before the centered mean, that would fit the HM snow post to Ji and 2/8/74 which was 10 days after the centered date. No other dates showed up withing 10 days most were more like 20 and 1990 wasn't until late March. I got discouraged looking at the dates though the 1974 snowstorm was a 4 incher at DCA if you are a glass half full kind of person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The analog dates only identified two days in a ten day window of the centered mean that got snow. 1972 which was one day before the centered mean, that would fit the HM snow post to Ji and 2/8/74 which was 10 days after the centered date. No other dates showed up withing 10 days most were more like 20 and 1990 wasn't until late March. I got discouraged looking at the dates though the 1974 snowstorm was a 4 incher at DCA if you are a glass half full kind of person. Just so we're clear, I am not suggesting a monster storm, a -NAO or a sustained cold pattern; however, I do feel another impressive cold shot is on the way in a week, again. Typically, these GWO orbits through 7-8-1 will trigger an El Nino-like flow across the CONUS. Despite the Alaskan Vortex, there will be split flow of sorts / +PNA Jan 8-15. This is because the entire Pacific will be retrograding. Also, the stratospheric warming has and will have an effect on the pole. The warm anomaly that develops over Siberia/North Pole will be responsible for taking the low off Asia and displacing it southward by the end of the week (all related to the warming). This is the feature that will alter the EPO, possibly, mid-month. Most of the analogs like a -NAO possibly by Jan. 20, starting out east based (Jan 15-20). The -EPO pattern will favor the NW States big time and New England at first. But there will be a window before this typical La Nina pattern for the East Coast to benefit from the GWO response coming up. The main issue would be the cold air available / lacking of NAO help. That may mean DC misses it and the suburbs see some accumulation. Hey it's a shot anyway. Models are now keying on a low anomaly getting left behind, possibly interacting with the baroclinic zone that drops Southeast again day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Ocean storm on Tuesday inching westward with each run. Maybe we can eke out some snowshowers by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Matt, Ian...might be time to head out to jonjon's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Matt, Ian...might be time to head out to jonjon's place. Come on out!! We have the suite and blue rooms available for the next couple of nights. meyerhousebandb.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Line of showers looks to be about to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If you're one of those people who like to believe the GFS post-240hrs, you'll like the look of things today. No explicit storms to track, but a much more favorable pattern at that time with a legit (if not moderate to strong) -AO and periodic -NAO with the PV swinging through the Canadian praries and into Ontario. P.S. Ensemble mean doesn't buy it, except for a neutral or weak -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 You're you're one of those people who like to believe the GFS post-240hrs, you'll like the look of things today. No explicit storms to track, but a much more favorable pattern at that time with a legit (if not moderate to strong) -AO and periodic -NAO with the PV swinging through the Canadian praries and into Ontario. P.S. Ensemble mean doesn't buy it, except for a neutral or weak -AO. Yes I saw a high in greenland and also noticed how far the 0 degree and -10 line was to the south. A lot of the us covered by really cold air. Of course its past 240 which is ridiculous, as you say. What the hell, fun to look at but meaningless. Nothing going to happen in the near future. And as Paul Harvey used to say""::that's the way it is, Jan 1st 2012. Have a good day"". Also Walter Cronkite used to say that too as he wrapped up his news cast, but few will remember him, as he was back in the early to mid 60's maybe earlier or later, not sure. He was a great one. I think he cried when the news came out that Kennedy was dead. He worked for CBS at the time. Happy New Year to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. 1-2 feet is a good bet up on the Tug Hill... time to pack up the bus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. No dont think so . Caps stink, wizards are marginal and so is snow. Heck even in baltimore the blast are so, so and we lost the wizards to you. Our trump card is the ravens. Orioles are pitiful. And washington considered the premier city, next to New York on the east coast. Just cant win so far this winter for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Looks like some heavy snow squalls around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Looks like some heavy snow squalls around Michigan web cam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Michigan web cam? Channeling master of disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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