Grothar of Herndon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Quote this post for verification. There is nothing wrong with this winter and no need for panic, it is behaving how it should given the steady signals, and they won't last much longer. The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease it should reconfigure in the COD about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortex leading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still a reason for focused convection, but the cooler IO relative to the La Nina in January with the SW budget increasing in January and February indirectly weakens the easterlies, Loop 1 and loop 2 had no hope, neither did a downwelling SSW. Conditions were unfavorable and still are. The same won't be said about the third loop since there will be less contrast in forcing to hold back the reassembling of the new regime in convection once the MJO goes back to the Maritime regions. I hope you are at least half right in your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Makes sense. I'm probably on the opposite end of those who have "seen" this pattern change for a month or whatever. I like seeing everyone freak out so warm is good. Warm is good anyway. Today was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 whatever, and mine was no one believed the euro snowstorm and that the euro ensembles don't support it, that pattern has stunk all winter, that has been the one constant. You are hoping for a change, maybe it will happen, I don't see it. You don't like me saying that so put me on ignore. Wes, I wasn't getting pi$$y, so I don't know why you seem to be (maybe you're not, nevermind w/that comment if that's the case) it's s crummy pattern, so what we rarely get snow, even in a great pattern, so what's the difference now that it's a crummy one lol DCA/BWI need luck, plain and simple, and none of the computers can predict that the best they can do for us is to put players on the field, and though some operational or ens do it better than others, none can predict very well actual snowfall for us in the MR don't get me wrong, I love looking at them on the screen, but it doesn't happen around here, save 1 out of every 7 or 8 years you think I'm bustin' your chops, but I'm not I'm here looking for hope, however small, however irrational, that we "may" get snow (and what's wrong with that?) hence, I will always be taking a more positive, albeit unrealistic at times, perspective I'm not a met and I have nothing to gain or lose with my opinions and thoughts; I'd go as far as saying they are worth exactly what everyone here pays me for them; otoh, you have to admit some of the forecasts that have come out of certain pay sites over the years aren't worth the money people pay for them, so I guess that makes my forecasts the better deal! anyway, if I want a realistic forecast, I know where to look I hope this helps when assessing my comments to you and others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Wes, I wasn't getting pi$$y, so I don't know why you seem to be (maybe you're not, nevermind w/that comment if that's the case) it's s crummy pattern, so what we rarely get snow, even in a great pattern, so what's the difference now that it's a crummy one lol DCA/BWI need luck, plain and simple, and none of the computers can predict that the best they can do for us is to put players on the field, and though some operational or ens do it better than others, none can predict very well actual snowfall for us in the MR don't get me wrong, I love looking at them on the screen, but it doesn't happen around here, save 1 out of every 7 or 8 years you think I'm bustin' your chops, but I'm not I'm here looking for hope, however small, however irrational, that we "may" get snow (and what's wrong with that?) hence, I will always be taking a more positive, albeit unrealistic at times, perspective I'm not a met and I have nothing to gain or lose with my opinions and thoughts; I'd go as far as saying they are worth exactly what everyone here pays me for them; otoh, you have to admit some of the forecasts that have come out of certain pay sites over the years aren't worth the money people pay for them, so I guess that makes my forecasts the better deal! anyway, if I want a realistic forecast, I know where to look I hope this helps when assessing my comments to you and others Mitch, sorry I got pissy. I do think sometimes I need to post less as many really enjoy the chase and the hopes and I tend to kill them though I can be as wrong as any weenie. Anyway, hope you have a happy new years. Hopefully, we'll have something soon that will get us both excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Mitch, sorry I got pissy. I do think sometimes I need to post less as many really enjoy the chase and the hopes and I tend to kill them though I can be as wrong as any weenie. Anyway, hope you have a happy new years. Hopefully, we'll have something soon that will get us both excited. unfortunately, I can come across rather brash, and I don't mean to, so I too apologize if I did Happy New Year to you and your family too as for snow, at least we know that "next" year can't get any worse than the last month of this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It will be cold more than once and we'll probably see some accumulating snow. In January that doesn't mean we will have had a pattern change. When the NAO changes and we have a positive pna, then I'll get excited, until then, I think staying conservative will win out. Heck, many were touted a ssw event giving us a change and that never happened. Of course maybe they are right. It is really important that we do not badger scientists into telling people what they really want to hear rather than simply accepting scientific evidence. So far, in the Mid-Atlantic, we are having a year with only three seasons. So be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It is really important that we do not badger scientists into telling people what they really want to hear rather than simply accepting scientific evidence. So far, in the Mid-Atlantic, we are having a year with only three seasons. So be it. But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. this place would be far worse off if only the people always calling for snow despite reality posted. we can all get that on facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. wes is wrong like 5% of the time too so we can hope. plus he might miss a change that still sucks but is a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 wes is wrong like 5% of the time too so we can hope. plus he might miss a change that still sucks but is a little better. True, but he shouldn't stop posting because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Only post less when you start being repetitive just for the sake of making people upset. I'm sure you can toss a bone once in a while so you don't sound like a robot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Stop with this "post less" stuff. I know where you live. We need you now that there's a 186 hour GFS threat on the map for the next hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Stop with this "post less" stuff. I know where you live. We need you now that there's a 186 hour GFS threat on the map for the next hour and a half. Does the bus need a tune up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Does the bus need a tune up? There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Embrace the torch my friend, it makes the lack of snow and cold more bearable to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 FWIW: GFS Op. has shown a very cold Canada and northern U.S. in the 11-15 day over the last 4 runs. Euro Op. and both GFS+Euro Ensembles have the colder air just in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This cold feature will be something to watch as a more favorable pattern could allow this cold to sink into the central and eastern U.S. It's important for us to have this cold pool set up if we want to start looking at a prolonged pattern change. That being said, I don't think this cold air will be able to make it into the southern and eastern U.S. through at least the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Watch issued by Sterling- I sense some momentum....I'm surprised Ji missed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. My bad...All the best for the new Year ! BTW thanks for your posts and threads- and your articles. cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. That's cause no one cares about what you have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done maybe you should post more instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Hugs, we will get through it. Happy new years, Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done maybe you should post more instead Amen to this. As you can tell, I post very little but thoroughly enjoy and appreciate the input from you guys/gals. I imagine that in periods of "little action" for winter weather that the chatter by the "sea of dreamers and weenies" becomes more irksome and annoying for those of you seriously in this line of work. Frankly, this might be a great time to post more - if you have the time and inclination- you can really separate the kernal from the husk, etc. Thanks to you folks for keeping this weather board operational. Its appreciated ! (also, thanks to the mod in charge for moving my post to this thread- pretty cool) Best to all for the New Year, V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This thread is getting awfully "feel good" for such a crappy pattern...lol. Time to go watch the ball drop on the start of a new year (hopefully a snow-filled year). I have no doubt that when the pattern improves and snow is on the horizon, Wes will be leading the way. Happy New Year ! MDstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Embrace the torch my friend, it makes the lack of snow and cold more bearable to deal with. He wouldn't be Ji if he did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Wes, like all others, I'm in the camp of "you need to post often." Having said that, can you reiterate what it is you are looking for in the major models that makes you feel confident that there is a pattern change coming? I ask because although the gfs does not show a true pattern change over the next 15 days, I notice that it does show a temporary -nao in the mid-range, and it makes me wonder if maybe the 6 to 10 day gfs is picking up on a change, but the 11 - 15 day has not caught on yet. Being overly simplistic, just as the 1 - 5 day gfs is more accurate than the 6 - 10, isn't the 6 - 10 more accurate than the 11 - 15? Anyway, post often and keep us grounded in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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