usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year to all! I'll echo what everyone else said, that even with the lack of winter weather this year I find Wes' insights and comments extremely valuable. Even if "repetitious" and depressing to read in the current pattern we've been dealt. Sometimes, that's just how it goes. Not much to be done about the pattern except to hope for something good to happen at some point before mid-March. Here's one that probably has no value. I looked the today's CPC D+11 analogs. The analog dates only identified two days in a ten day window of the centered mean that got snow. 1972 which was one day before the centered mean, that would fit the HM snow post to Ji and 2/8/74 which was 10 days after the centered date. No other dates showed up withing 10 days most were more like 20 and 1990 wasn't until late March. I got discouraged looking at the dates though the 1974 snowstorm was a 4 incher at DCA if you are a glass half full kind of person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The analog dates only identified two days in a ten day window of the centered mean that got snow. 1972 which was one day before the centered mean, that would fit the HM snow post to Ji and 2/8/74 which was 10 days after the centered date. No other dates showed up withing 10 days most were more like 20 and 1990 wasn't until late March. I got discouraged looking at the dates though the 1974 snowstorm was a 4 incher at DCA if you are a glass half full kind of person. Just so we're clear, I am not suggesting a monster storm, a -NAO or a sustained cold pattern; however, I do feel another impressive cold shot is on the way in a week, again. Typically, these GWO orbits through 7-8-1 will trigger an El Nino-like flow across the CONUS. Despite the Alaskan Vortex, there will be split flow of sorts / +PNA Jan 8-15. This is because the entire Pacific will be retrograding. Also, the stratospheric warming has and will have an effect on the pole. The warm anomaly that develops over Siberia/North Pole will be responsible for taking the low off Asia and displacing it southward by the end of the week (all related to the warming). This is the feature that will alter the EPO, possibly, mid-month. Most of the analogs like a -NAO possibly by Jan. 20, starting out east based (Jan 15-20). The -EPO pattern will favor the NW States big time and New England at first. But there will be a window before this typical La Nina pattern for the East Coast to benefit from the GWO response coming up. The main issue would be the cold air available / lacking of NAO help. That may mean DC misses it and the suburbs see some accumulation. Hey it's a shot anyway. Models are now keying on a low anomaly getting left behind, possibly interacting with the baroclinic zone that drops Southeast again day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Ocean storm on Tuesday inching westward with each run. Maybe we can eke out some snowshowers by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Matt, Ian...might be time to head out to jonjon's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Matt, Ian...might be time to head out to jonjon's place. Come on out!! We have the suite and blue rooms available for the next couple of nights. meyerhousebandb.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Line of showers looks to be about to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If you're one of those people who like to believe the GFS post-240hrs, you'll like the look of things today. No explicit storms to track, but a much more favorable pattern at that time with a legit (if not moderate to strong) -AO and periodic -NAO with the PV swinging through the Canadian praries and into Ontario. P.S. Ensemble mean doesn't buy it, except for a neutral or weak -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 You're you're one of those people who like to believe the GFS post-240hrs, you'll like the look of things today. No explicit storms to track, but a much more favorable pattern at that time with a legit (if not moderate to strong) -AO and periodic -NAO with the PV swinging through the Canadian praries and into Ontario. P.S. Ensemble mean doesn't buy it, except for a neutral or weak -AO. Yes I saw a high in greenland and also noticed how far the 0 degree and -10 line was to the south. A lot of the us covered by really cold air. Of course its past 240 which is ridiculous, as you say. What the hell, fun to look at but meaningless. Nothing going to happen in the near future. And as Paul Harvey used to say""::that's the way it is, Jan 1st 2012. Have a good day"". Also Walter Cronkite used to say that too as he wrapped up his news cast, but few will remember him, as he was back in the early to mid 60's maybe earlier or later, not sure. He was a great one. I think he cried when the news came out that Kennedy was dead. He worked for CBS at the time. Happy New Year to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. 1-2 feet is a good bet up on the Tug Hill... time to pack up the bus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. No dont think so . Caps stink, wizards are marginal and so is snow. Heck even in baltimore the blast are so, so and we lost the wizards to you. Our trump card is the ravens. Orioles are pitiful. And washington considered the premier city, next to New York on the east coast. Just cant win so far this winter for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Looks like some heavy snow squalls around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Looks like some heavy snow squalls around Michigan web cam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Michigan web cam? Channeling master of disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Channeling master of disaster There goes your new year's resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 1-3 Inches by Tuesday morning in forecast...chance to see my first snow. Wind is gusting up to 30mph. Temp was up to 60F, but starting to fall off now. Felt like a spring day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I live in DC and like snow and the Redskins. I must be a masochist on some subconscious level. Well I like snow, the skins and the wizards, I wonder what hat makes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Well I like snow, the skins and the wizards, I wonder what hat makes me. Ahh, a fellow Wizards fan, I thought I was the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If you like snow, I see why everyone is upset so far this winter has been rough all around the board for abov avg temps. Look winter has only been around for a couple weeks. Might not be a the best winter, but I believe that our 1st snow will be at or near the end of January. Our biggest storm will be at or near the end of Febuary. Please be patient, we will get snow I promise. " Look last weeks euro showed a big snowstorm for the mid Atlantic - Northeast. Maybe that was a sign of something coming later in the year. Just trying to give hope to the ones who have lost it. HAPPY NEW YEAR- 2012 to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Ahh, a fellow Wizards fan, I thought I was the only one I'm a legacy of when they were the bullets with Unseld, Hayes and Dandridge. The 18Z gfs looks pretty ugly again in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Channeling master of disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS- RANDOLPH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAFTON...BECKLEY...OAK HILL... FAYETTEVILLE...MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD... CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON... MARLINTON...ELKINS 418 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL START TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm a legacy of when they were the bullets with Unseld, Hayes and Dandridge. The 18Z gfs looks pretty ugly again in the extended. do you remember , probably not, when earl monroe used to thrill the baltimore fans?? Not any more. Unseld was very good and so was hayes and Dandridge. Lost time. Their a skeleton of what they used to be. They have had their share of excellent talent. They sure can't complain about that. 18z show some snow about 189 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it could be worse, we could live in Cumberland http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it could be worse, we could live in Cumberland http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Meh, that is normal in LES events there, You need to go to Clarysville, Md just west of LaVale/Cumberland and you start climbing and once you hit MD 36 outside Frostburg, you are golden with LES. God knows when I lived out there, i would drive up and over Big Savage to Grantsville and back to get my snow fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Meh, that is normal in LES events there, You need to go to Clarysville, Md just west of LaVale/Cumberland and you start climbing and once you hit MD 36 outside Frostburg, you are golden with LES. God knows when I lived out there, i would drive up and over Big Savage to Grantsville and back to get my snow fix. My favorite drive is to take 40 from the Narrows, through LaVale, Clarysville, Eckhart, Frostburg, and all the way to Grantsville. More fun than running I-68 in LES. That stretch of 40 through Finzel was called "Long Stretch" by the locals for what it might involve in the winter when the wind blew. From the top end of LaVale, you could watch the downslope literally erode the squalls. At Toll Gate House the visibility might be 1/4" mile, and by the time you reached the Police Barracks a mile or so farther east (where weather records were kept for so long) it was a mile in flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 My favorite drive is to take 40 from the Narrows, through LaVale, Clarysville, Eckhart, Frostburg, and all the way to Grantsville. More fun than running I-68 in LES. That stretch of 40 through Finzel was called "Long Stretch" by the locals for what it might involve in the winter when the wind blew. From the top end of LaVale, you could watch the downslope literally erode the squalls. At Toll Gate House the visibility might be 1/4" mile, and by the time you reached the Police Barracks a mile or so farther east (where weather records were kept for so long) it was a mile in flurries. Used to take 40 to Uniontown, PA to my grandmother's house. I love that drive with the red colored roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 My favorite drive is to take 40 from the Narrows, through LaVale, Clarysville, Eckhart, Frostburg, and all the way to Grantsville. More fun than running I-68 in LES. That stretch of 40 through Finzel was called "Long Stretch" by the locals for what it might involve in the winter when the wind blew. From the top end of LaVale, you could watch the downslope literally erode the squalls. At Toll Gate House the visibility might be 1/4" mile, and by the time you reached the Police Barracks a mile or so farther east (where weather records were kept for so long) it was a mile in flurries. Yep same thing here Craig. I know that stretch well of 40, it could be filmed for a location in ND in a blizzard and when the snow was whipping sideways up there. Plus the twisting and winding of it made it fun. As for where the snow ends, you are spot on sir. the police barracks I think has moved since then but they used to be on the corner of Campground Rd and Natl Hwy. Even at the country club mall, you can get a few stray flurries from the LES but thats it. Once it came off the front range there it would dry up uber fast. These were in 2005 I think up there in Garrett Co. Drifting is huge up there, way worse than a lot of people east of Cumberland think I think this is in the stretch of the bottom of the hill near Finzel Keysers ridge, MD One of my good friends out there took me out on a drive out there that day and it was unreal with the blowing snow. We have drifted apart so I dont get out there much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 At least LWX finally bumped our tue wed highs out of the low 30s. That was kinda lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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