Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people. I see you Wes. This made me LOL pretty big time. The GFS has been doing some funky things in the long range and the Euro has a another D10 cutter, whats new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao. otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 (GFS) PNA, AO, NAO all look unimpressive though right until day 15... not much changing in that regard despite the artic looking different Ensembles all look slightly better but nothing earth shattering. PNA dipping down into the negatives on both by 1/8 and staying there. Several GFS runs have now modeled building heights into AK. A great sign. I think pattern continues now for the next 10 days. Pattern change around 1/10 begins, with differences showing by 1/20. Probably the first east coast threat featuring the metros between 20th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Im leaning toward forgetting the whole winter. We, granted, have a ways to go, but judging from all of the views, and changing views of the experts on here, hoping for snow maybe a lost cause. I can stand this winter the way it is right now. If you cant get what you want,,want. What you can get!!! Its an old sayng my father used to say to ME ANd he was from Pa snow and cold lover like me.i hope it snows for all of you. But if it doesnt what canyoudo about it????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 340 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 ...UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE...WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-010500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.120102T1200Z-120103T2200Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD... MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE 340 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING... WITH AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S MON FALLING INTO THE TEENS MON NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THOSE USING MOUNTAIN ROADS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...INCLUDING I-68 THROUGH WESTERN MARYLAND AND US-33 THROUGH EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 People are melting down everywhere it's kinda funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The euro ensembles look pretty nice in the 11-15 day. They continue the theme of very cold air seeping into the CONUS from western and central Canada. The se ridge doesn't look terribly robust on this run. As usual, models may be a hair too fast, so if you keep that in mind..I think things seem to be slowly edging closer. But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. Maybe you are talking about the 6-10 day period Wes but they sound better after that. I think we all knew that following the cold blast another warm up was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Maybe you are talking about the 6-10 day period Wes but they sound better after that. I think we all knew that following the cold blast another warm up was coming. At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 With this lack of snow I'm going to have to start considering building a snow maker. Too bad Midlo is too far to come give my lawn a blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 With this lack of snow I'm going to have to start considering building a snow maker. Too bad Midlo is too far to come give my lawn a blanket of snow. You are going to have to build a cold air maker as well. Still 50 freaking degrees at the end of December at 5:30 PM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. I guess the bad euro weeklies don't matter? I feel like many are (have been) attached to a mid jan pattern change so they'll of course stick with it. Not to mention a better pattern for New England can still suck for us. But in January it's going to be cold at least twice I'd think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I guess the bad euro weeklies don't matter? I feel like many are (have been) attached to a mid jan pattern change so they'll of course stick with it. Not to mention a better pattern for New England can still suck for us. But in January it's going to be cold at least twice I'd think.. It will be cold more than once and we'll probably see some accumulating snow. In January that doesn't mean we will have had a pattern change. When the NAO changes and we have a positive pna, then I'll get excited, until then, I think staying conservative will win out. Heck, many were touted a ssw event giving us a change and that never happened. Of course maybe they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I guess the bad euro weeklies don't matter? I feel like many are (have been) attached to a mid jan pattern change so they'll of course stick with it. Not to mention a better pattern for New England can still suck for us. But in January it's going to be cold at least twice I'd think.. We could easily go wire to wire warm. There really is no reason to think there will be a pattern change. I'd still like to see a few snow events. I think/hope we will but they may be in transient patterns that are just mediocre. It is kind of silly to wait for a good atlantic. We are probably going to need to work without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You are going to have to build a cold air maker as well. Still 50 freaking degrees at the end of December at 5:30 PM here. This is very true. Hopefully some chilly nights but even those have been marginal lately. EDIT: maybe I will just cover the front lawn in packing peanuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 We could easily go wire to wire warm. There really is no reason to think there will be a pattern change. I'd still like to see a few snow events. I think/hope we will but they may be in transient patterns that are just mediocre. It is kind of silly to wait for a good atlantic. We are probably going to need to work without one. Makes sense. I'm probably on the opposite end of those who have "seen" this pattern change for a month or whatever. I like seeing everyone freak out so warm is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS has a snowstorm next weekend....Euro has a torch. Good model agreement Im going to hug the GFS like there is no tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 this is the best gfs 500mb map i have seen all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 What a difference a year makes. This is my second new years in a row in manhattan visiting my sis and bro-in-law. Last year had boxing day storm snow mountains everwhere. This year I didn't even need a jacket today. I posted a month ago that if we were still having the same conversation it would be a bummer and sure enough.....here we are. I'm going to dig into the nao dailies when i get back in town. It's pretty surprising that the nao has been positive for basically 2 months now. I'm not sure how rare that is or if we have ever had a winter with no periods of -nao. We've had winters with all monthlies coming in + but I'm not sure about dailies. This is getting kind of ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 And the tooorch lives on Yes! Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Some of us are trying too hard to have hope and IMHO some are trying too hard to show that there is none and the rest are just dummies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 this is the best gfs 500mb map i have seen all winter Hey Ji can you explain what makes it look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost The ensembles have been supporting that mild period for a while now...so there is some reason to believe any solution that gives a warm shot post-Jan 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The pessimism of this thread is astounding to me. The GFS has been consistently showing a "pattern change" in the day 10-16 range for several runs now. It's been showing some ridging in the GOA starting around day 10, flooding the CONUS with cold air. This - if it happens - would be a significant change from December and hence constitutes a PATTERN CHANGE... People around here seem to believe that a pattern change must represent a -AO/-NAO. Pattern change simply means a change in the pattern of persistence; just because that change isn't our most ideal setup of a -NAO doesn't; mean it isn't a pattern change. Heck, the fact that we're getting a transient cold shot this week shows a break in the pattern. we didn't get any cold shots in december for pete's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. Look harder into the crystal ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost whatever, and mine was no one believed the euro snowstorm and that the euro ensembles don't support it, that pattern has stunk all winter, that has been the one constant. You are hoping for a change, maybe it will happen, I don't see it. You don't like me saying that so put me on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Quote this post for verification. There is nothing wrong with this winter and no need for panic, it is behaving how it should given the steady signals, and they won't last much longer. The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease it should reconfigure in the COD about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortex leading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still a reason for focused convection, but the cooler IO relative to the La Nina in January with the SW budget increasing in January and February indirectly weakens the easterlies, Loop 1 and loop 2 had no hope, neither did a downwelling SSW. Conditions were unfavorable and still are. The same won't be said about the third loop since there will be less contrast in forcing to hold back the reassembling of the new regime in convection once the MJO goes back to the Maritime regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I must be crazy but the only person I'm really listening to is Wes. I mean it's a close one on Wes v BB but... That said, I don't believe most people have much clue what will happen past D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow Good Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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