mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Embrace the torch my friend, it makes the lack of snow and cold more bearable to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 FWIW: GFS Op. has shown a very cold Canada and northern U.S. in the 11-15 day over the last 4 runs. Euro Op. and both GFS+Euro Ensembles have the colder air just in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This cold feature will be something to watch as a more favorable pattern could allow this cold to sink into the central and eastern U.S. It's important for us to have this cold pool set up if we want to start looking at a prolonged pattern change. That being said, I don't think this cold air will be able to make it into the southern and eastern U.S. through at least the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Watch issued by Sterling- I sense some momentum....I'm surprised Ji missed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. My bad...All the best for the new Year ! BTW thanks for your posts and threads- and your articles. cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I posted about the GFS cold and the WSW in this very thread. That's cause no one cares about what you have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done maybe you should post more instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Hugs, we will get through it. Happy new years, Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done maybe you should post more instead Amen to this. As you can tell, I post very little but thoroughly enjoy and appreciate the input from you guys/gals. I imagine that in periods of "little action" for winter weather that the chatter by the "sea of dreamers and weenies" becomes more irksome and annoying for those of you seriously in this line of work. Frankly, this might be a great time to post more - if you have the time and inclination- you can really separate the kernal from the husk, etc. Thanks to you folks for keeping this weather board operational. Its appreciated ! (also, thanks to the mod in charge for moving my post to this thread- pretty cool) Best to all for the New Year, V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This thread is getting awfully "feel good" for such a crappy pattern...lol. Time to go watch the ball drop on the start of a new year (hopefully a snow-filled year). I have no doubt that when the pattern improves and snow is on the horizon, Wes will be leading the way. Happy New Year ! MDstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Embrace the torch my friend, it makes the lack of snow and cold more bearable to deal with. He wouldn't be Ji if he did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge. Wes, like all others, I'm in the camp of "you need to post often." Having said that, can you reiterate what it is you are looking for in the major models that makes you feel confident that there is a pattern change coming? I ask because although the gfs does not show a true pattern change over the next 15 days, I notice that it does show a temporary -nao in the mid-range, and it makes me wonder if maybe the 6 to 10 day gfs is picking up on a change, but the 11 - 15 day has not caught on yet. Being overly simplistic, just as the 1 - 5 day gfs is more accurate than the 6 - 10, isn't the 6 - 10 more accurate than the 11 - 15? Anyway, post often and keep us grounded in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Today's thoughts are at the end of the CWG January outlook post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now. doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct???? you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right) where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The temperature jumped from 32 at 7AM to currently 55. South wind is starting to crank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here. They have the vortex north of hudson bay which still is a warmer than normal look for here so I wouldn't worry about a prolonged cold spell anytime soon though the next couple of days will be downright cold and blustery. I wrote something on the pattern in the CWG Jan pattern/snowfall thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Warning -- 8-12" -- at least a little fun to be had. Edit: LWX is more optimistic than PIT -- going for 8-14"+ http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ505&warncounty=WVC071&firewxzone=WVZ505&local_place1=2+Miles+SE+Onego+WV&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Storm Warning -- 8-12" -- at least a little fun to be had. Edit: LWX is more optimistic than PIT -- going for 8-14"+ http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning looking at the Wisp webcams this morning, you guys need it bad enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 looking at the Wisp webcams this morning, you guys need it bad enjoy! I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? the GL are so warm, even if not ideal, they should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year to all! I'll echo what everyone else said, that even with the lack of winter weather this year I find Wes' insights and comments extremely valuable. Even if "repetitious" and depressing to read in the current pattern we've been dealt. Sometimes, that's just how it goes. Not much to be done about the pattern except to hope for something good to happen at some point before mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg I think the Titanic got thrown under the bus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I dunno, how well do they do with west winds as opposed to NW winds? The winds are expected to be from the northwest later tomorrow into Tuesday when the snow will be heaviest. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ041&warncounty=WVC093&firewxzone=WVZ041&local_place1=Thomas+WV&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The winds are expected to be from the northwest later tomorrow into Tuesday when the snow will be heaviest. http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning You should do great, the trajectories look like they will be from over the lakes an my traverse both huron and erie. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 You should do great, the trajectories look like they will be from over the lakes an my traverse both huron and erie. Good luck. Thanks. Too bad this couldn't have come a couple days earlier. Its unfortunate that the people here over the holidays had to deal with patchy snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Twitter fail: they corrected it a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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