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January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion


PhineasC

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FWIW: GFS Op. has shown a very cold Canada and northern U.S. in the 11-15 day over the last 4 runs. Euro Op. and both GFS+Euro Ensembles have the colder air just in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This cold feature will be something to watch as a more favorable pattern could allow this cold to sink into the central and eastern U.S. It's important for us to have this cold pool set up if we want to start looking at a prolonged pattern change.

That being said, I don't think this cold air will be able to make it into the southern and eastern U.S. through at least the first half of the month.

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suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea

the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies

plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am

the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done

maybe you should post more instead :lmao:

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suffice to say Wes, you posting less is not a good idea

the Board needs reality amongst a sea of dreamers and weenies

plus, it will put me on everyone's shiat list, or a few notches higher on those lists than I already am

the fact of the matter is, unless we all post in the style of Typhoon Tip, we should all expect occasional misunderstandings of and by everyone; in which case, we clarify and it's done

maybe you should post more instead :lmao:

Amen to this. As you can tell, I post very little but thoroughly enjoy and appreciate the input from you guys/gals. I imagine that in periods of "little action" for winter weather that the chatter by the "sea of dreamers and weenies" becomes more irksome and annoying for those of you seriously in this line of work.

Frankly, this might be a great time to post more - if you have the time and inclination- you can really separate the kernal from the husk, etc.

Thanks to you folks for keeping this weather board operational. Its appreciated ! (also, thanks to the mod in charge for moving my post to this thread- pretty cool)

Best to all for the New Year, V

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I know most value my posts but it even gets repetitive to me. This crappy pattern even has me on the edge.

Wes, like all others, I'm in the camp of "you need to post often." Having said that, can you reiterate what it is you are looking for in the major models that makes you feel confident that there is a pattern change coming? I ask because although the gfs does not show a true pattern change over the next 15 days, I notice that it does show a temporary -nao in the mid-range, and it makes me wonder if maybe the 6 to 10 day gfs is picking up on a change, but the 11 - 15 day has not caught on yet.

Being overly simplistic, just as the 1 - 5 day gfs is more accurate than the 6 - 10, isn't the 6 - 10 more accurate than the 11 - 15?

Anyway, post often and keep us grounded in reality.

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Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now.

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Most of the overnight runs show some N. Atlantic ridging/blocking showing up after a week's time and persisting. Quite east-based, but more than we've had recently. In response to that and the ridging from the Bering Straight up toward Asia, this displaces the PV a bit westward closer to Hudson Bay as opposed to over Baffin where it is now.

doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct????

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doesn't that tend to make us colder, I remember the bitter winter of 89 and I think the pv was over hudson bay for that winter too. Also 94 the really bitterly cold winter we got a lot of ice that winter. So this should be a good thing for us. correct????

you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right)

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you're correct, but he said "closer" to Hudsons Bay vs. "over" it, so yes colder but not as cold as 89' (if it's right)

where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here.

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where does the latest, or last several runs of the model put the pv, how close to hudson's bay?? North, south east west?? I know a little about this position and how important it is to give us cold weather.. I dont want a repeat of 77, 89 or 94. Just to damn cold. And 94 was nothing but ice. But 94 was an anomoly., never seen that scenario before. I,m 63 and that was a nightmare winter. I dont want to see that again, hopeuflly. Doesn't that position also need greenland blocking?? What keeps it there if no blocking?? Or is this temporary?? Lots of questions. I jiust read the post and he said westward closer to hudson bay but on the east side. it appears.. That should put us in the sufficiently cold air to produce snow.If the pv is east of hudson bay . Correct??. My lack of knowledge is showing here.

They have the vortex north of hudson bay which still is a warmer than normal look for here so I wouldn't worry about a prolonged cold spell anytime soon though the next couple of days will be downright cold and blustery. I wrote something on the pattern in the CWG Jan pattern/snowfall thread.

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Happy New Year to all!

I'll echo what everyone else said, that even with the lack of winter weather this year I find Wes' insights and comments extremely valuable. Even if "repetitious" and depressing to read in the current pattern we've been dealt. Sometimes, that's just how it goes. Not much to be done about the pattern except to hope for something good to happen at some point before mid-March.

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You should do great, the trajectories look like they will be from over the lakes an my traverse both huron and erie. Good luck.

Thanks. Too bad this couldn't have come a couple days earlier. Its unfortunate that the people here over the holidays had to deal with patchy snow on the ground.

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