January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

[Huffwx]

I only like the model that shows me what I want it to show.

Here here!

[stormtracker]

If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people.

I see you Wes.

[Scuddz]

So, when do we switch this from a storm thread to wish-casting that LES makes it over the Apps?

[snowfan]

Maybe we can just start tracking the cold. Lows are expected to be around 40-45 below on Saturday night near Prudhoe Bay. Anyone up for a "quick" roadtrip?

[Ian]

the 12z gfs is pretty horrid but i guess that's to be expected at this point

[Kmlwx]

If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people.

I see you Wes.

Start with Ian.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yes I was just thinking that same thing, just how much that looks like any given Sunday over the course of this near warmly historic recent December.

Not sure what the worth of the following is beyond commiseration... but, 4 days ago ... when the Euro operational developed that odd looking monsters storm from cutting off of an actual long wave trough (as opposed to the more typical model of short wave scaled events ....), there was actually some support via that product of the PSU E-Wall site. At that time, two runs, back-to-back, that Euro mean painted a huge western ridge and coupled fairly deeply carved out low heights in east centered on the same time. Meanwhile, the GEFs derived PNA was forecast to modestly spike to +2 standard deviations or so. So basically, the idea of "some sort" of event appeared very plausible - most thought the extremeness of the Euro was over-the-top, if perhaps wisely... Point being, there was cross-model type support both spatially and temporally for an era of cold amplitude, so things appeared pointed in a certain direction.

It's just bemusing, though, how no sooner was all that correlative assurance established, only then did the house of card come-a crumblin' down. It was an illusory romp perpetrated by the forces of chaos, we're left to suppose...

Be that as it may, what do we now have to show for the course? First of all...obviously nothing. But, the GEFs derived PNA is still trying to spike between the 2-6th of January; yet the Euro mean ... has gone ahead and submarined it's verification score card for that particular D6-10 range by opting for the opposite appeal, abruptly, like that which you provided. Granted, every night tacks another day on the end of that 8-10ness. There was, however, a 2 -day period, though, where they recently overlapped.

The hidden lesson in all this is

1), the Euro is not an infallible tool (nor its constituencies);

2), "anything" Euro in general is just as indictable as a piece of shyt tool as any GFS/GEFs derived product, period. I'm not forgetting this, nor that inland cutter in January last year, where at D4 or 5 the Euro had a bomb over Cleveland, and the GFS handed that model its hat in a rare defeat when what verified was a nice 6-12" resulting coastal.

Concerning the latter notion. I am not sure what it is really about the 4-D initialization thing, but it certainly does pay dividends to accuracy but only up to a certain lead time. I believe it is somewhere between D4-5 **(and yes the numbers are readily available); after which chaos roars in and bares its ugly presence with rapidity.

This sort of leads me loosely into the only comment I have regarding the pattern over the longer haul heading on into the month of Cantuary. There are some albeit thin for the time being, interesting signals coming from the western Pacific, and disparately so, from the AO, that might converge and force changing things regardless of the "infallible" Euro Weeklies.

The MJO is just entering the western Pacific Basin as it is now continuing its eastern propagation through Phase 6. Its weak to moderate in intensity, but since there is an utter and complete abandonment (apparently) of any polarward exertion on the flow, that leaves the Pac domain very prone to the advances of the tropical boner. I think it certainly possible (perhaps demonstrated via some kind of re-analysis/eval study) that the failed original Euro meridional flow may have been because the MJO wave sort of phoenix from the COD/incoherency grave, and rose to moderate strength midway through Phase 4, and then assumed a steady eastward propagation through Phase butt-bangin' 5. The end result "might" just have been rather abrupt insert of large scale destructive wave interference *(I've discussed this a few times in the recent past, but feel it prudent presently to bring it up again). I am not sure of that ... again, that's supposition. Either way, SOMETHING caused the entire Euro cluster to waver on the entire mass of the Milky Way Galaxy seemingly violating physical laws in getting there... You provide an explanation - I dunno.

Anyway, with the wave progressing now deeper eastward through the western Pac, the dispersive influence down stream should spatially favor the kind of Pacific orientation that folks are inclined to wanting to see ... eventually. Right now - of course - the GEF says the PNA neutralizes and gets rather dicey/incoherent around -.5; I honestly don't see that as significant. If we look across December, the PNA (according to both the CDC/CPC) in fact appears to have averaged slightly positive. How's that working for us? Again, it really more and more appears to be the complete and utter red-headed step child neglect by the alcoholic AO step dad that doomed us to the ennui that most are complaining about, when taking all into retrospective.

There's the rather tentative rub... The warm node I was mentioning in the upper altitudes of the stratospheric PV is gaining some strength. The very recent analysis, take on the 29th of the month, shows both the temperature +flux combined with a Wave 1 (geopotential height) bullying a presence:

What we don't know is whether or not this already verifying warm intrusion/flux will be downward propagating or not. What is interesting is that I did see some recent EP Flux diagrams that suggested it would not be; yet, when observing the other sudden onset warm events in the data set spanning the last 30 or so years...the ones that did have a subsequent propagation behavior were associated with a stronger Wave 1 geopotential signature such as that provided above. So there's some conflicting notions there...

Barring the EP Flux' accuracy (and if some warm events have an extraterrestrial orginin ( hmmm (interestingly, there has been some recent CME( maybe there somehow a polarity link to the airs of the upper PV that is realized through the variable temperature in the electroconductivity of a fluid medium) ) ) ) than a partial disconnect with EP could almost be assumed)

...Let's see who succeeds in parsing that out...

The short version, perhaps the AO begins to fall off, concurrent with a more favorable Pac orientation in about 2, 3 weeks.

Up until then, it can snow...sure, or not. Smaller time scale what-nots in the flow ...it's January. I don't see a blow torch like the whiners are chanting though. Of course, I am not even sure what defines a "torch". I scanned around in the Glossary over at AMS ... they don't have f clue. I figure it's "anything that is outside the box of winter intent", period, should be labeled a torch, and that ought to about cover it. So given that logical pre-requisite I suppose, yeah - torch. But imnsho, i find the broad spectrum oscillatory pattern that ranges from lewd run-ins with +12C, 850mb day in half warmth, followed by smack in the face -20C, 850mb day and half cold incursions (with no storms intervening the separation of those exotically differing mass fields) to be more maddening and annoying to look at then a torch. But that's just me.

Copied from the New England thread. I thought it was pretty good given the recent discussion in this thread.

I'm just a watcher, but I thought the bolded was hard to argue.

[Ian]

looks like the outer banks could get one inch or three from the dt one run wonder storm. that would be fitting.

[snownut]

So, when do we switch this from a storm thread to wish-casting that LES makes it over the Apps?

sounds like a whole new thread and maybe a few "JEB like" lets blow up the mountains rantings and JON JON posting about 4 and 5 foots drifts at Canaan Valley.

[eurojosh]

looks like the outer banks could get one inch or three from the dt one run wonder storm. that would be fitting.

Hey now. It was two runs.

[J.Mike]

If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people.

I see you Wes.

Ji hijacked Randy's account

[J.Mike]

BTW, I've been talking with my landscaper - this would look nice in my front yard:

I'm serious.

[Wonderdog]

looks like the outer banks could get one inch or three from the dt one run wonder storm. that would be fitting.

Looks like dt's storm has started the retrograde process. By Sunday morning, we should be back estimating snowfall amounts.

[Ian]

And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking now, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/by-the-first-we/59689

[JoMo]

Brett Anderson says:

"After a brief visit early next week the ECMWF says that winter goes on another extended hiatus in the East through the end of the month, while the cold gradually takes hold out in western Canada."

And he's going to post his interpretation of the Euro weeklies tonight, they sound ugly for your part of the world

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/random-thoughts/59695

[WinterWxLuvr]

Brett Anderson says:

"After a brief visit early next week the ECMWF says that winter goes on another extended hiatus in the East through the end of the month, while the cold gradually takes hold out in western Canada."

And he's going to post his interpretation of the Euro weeklies tonight, they sound ugly for your part of the world

http://www.accuweath...-thoughts/59695

I'm sure they are dead on accurate. I'm really looking forward to my snowstorm next week. Wonder which weather map posted below will actually happen tomorrow?

[usedtobe]

If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people.

I see you Wes.

At 12:00 I was golfing you must have seen my alter ego.

[usedtobe]

And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking now, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January.

http://www.accuweath...-first-we/59689

Thanks for posting the link. I think Joe is one of if not the best guy one accuwx that posts long range thoughts.

[Yeoman]

Copied from the New England thread. I thought it was pretty good given the recent discussion in this thread.

I'm just a watcher, but I thought the bolded was hard to argue.

What, weather is largely unpredictable? nah..

[Ji]

Hm threw us a bone?

[aldie 22]

The GFS seems to be alternating between cold and warm in the extended with each cycle run...seems to me something is up

[usedtobe]

I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look.

[aldie 22]

I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look.

Yeah...I'm not really looking for any sustained cold....just a chance at some snow no matter how small....been around long enough to recognize what this winter has in store for us....I'm on the fluke wagon myself.

[mdsnowlover]

I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look.

[usedtobe]

Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao.

[PhineasC]

Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao.

I am pretty sure January is a bust. I bet we get one decent storm (4-6 inches) in February and a tease in March followed by a cold and dreary spring. Book it!

[Ian]

the gfs looks like it's primed to dump cold air out of western canada at 360-384. but well i guess i should feel stupid for even looking that far out.

[DMADKAT]

BTW, I've been talking with my landscaper - this would look nice in my front yard:

I'm serious.

That just about sums this winter up! GOOD STUFF

[Ellinwood]

Updated forecast for January 2012

Compared to the old forecast

Part of the new forecast incorporates some sort of pattern change towards the second half of January, but I'm comfortable enough with having an above normal central and eastern U.S. overall.

[Fozz]

And the tooorch lives on