Ji Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS has a snowstorm next weekend....Euro has a torch. Good model agreement Im going to hug the GFS like there is no tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 this is the best gfs 500mb map i have seen all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 What a difference a year makes. This is my second new years in a row in manhattan visiting my sis and bro-in-law. Last year had boxing day storm snow mountains everwhere. This year I didn't even need a jacket today. I posted a month ago that if we were still having the same conversation it would be a bummer and sure enough.....here we are. I'm going to dig into the nao dailies when i get back in town. It's pretty surprising that the nao has been positive for basically 2 months now. I'm not sure how rare that is or if we have ever had a winter with no periods of -nao. We've had winters with all monthlies coming in + but I'm not sure about dailies. This is getting kind of ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 And the tooorch lives on Yes! Embrace the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Some of us are trying too hard to have hope and IMHO some are trying too hard to show that there is none and the rest are just dummies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 this is the best gfs 500mb map i have seen all winter Hey Ji can you explain what makes it look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost The ensembles have been supporting that mild period for a while now...so there is some reason to believe any solution that gives a warm shot post-Jan 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The pessimism of this thread is astounding to me. The GFS has been consistently showing a "pattern change" in the day 10-16 range for several runs now. It's been showing some ridging in the GOA starting around day 10, flooding the CONUS with cold air. This - if it happens - would be a significant change from December and hence constitutes a PATTERN CHANGE... People around here seem to believe that a pattern change must represent a -AO/-NAO. Pattern change simply means a change in the pattern of persistence; just because that change isn't our most ideal setup of a -NAO doesn't; mean it isn't a pattern change. Heck, the fact that we're getting a transient cold shot this week shows a break in the pattern. we didn't get any cold shots in december for pete's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. Look harder into the crystal ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought your original comment was on the operational and not the ensembles... it was made at 2:05 PM before the ensembles from the 12Z run came out my point was just that the Euro has stunk in the MR (5 Days+) so a torch days 7+ is meaningless almost whatever, and mine was no one believed the euro snowstorm and that the euro ensembles don't support it, that pattern has stunk all winter, that has been the one constant. You are hoping for a change, maybe it will happen, I don't see it. You don't like me saying that so put me on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Quote this post for verification. There is nothing wrong with this winter and no need for panic, it is behaving how it should given the steady signals, and they won't last much longer. The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease it should reconfigure in the COD about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortex leading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still a reason for focused convection, but the cooler IO relative to the La Nina in January with the SW budget increasing in January and February indirectly weakens the easterlies, Loop 1 and loop 2 had no hope, neither did a downwelling SSW. Conditions were unfavorable and still are. The same won't be said about the third loop since there will be less contrast in forcing to hold back the reassembling of the new regime in convection once the MJO goes back to the Maritime regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I must be crazy but the only person I'm really listening to is Wes. I mean it's a close one on Wes v BB but... That said, I don't believe most people have much clue what will happen past D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow Good Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Quote this post for verification. There is nothing wrong with this winter and no need for panic, it is behaving how it should given the steady signals, and they won't last much longer. The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease it should reconfigure in the COD about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortex leading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still a reason for focused convection, but the cooler IO relative to the La Nina in January with the SW budget increasing in January and February indirectly weakens the easterlies, Loop 1 and loop 2 had no hope, neither did a downwelling SSW. Conditions were unfavorable and still are. The same won't be said about the third loop since there will be less contrast in forcing to hold back the reassembling of the new regime in convection once the MJO goes back to the Maritime regions. I hope you are at least half right in your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Makes sense. I'm probably on the opposite end of those who have "seen" this pattern change for a month or whatever. I like seeing everyone freak out so warm is good. Warm is good anyway. Today was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 whatever, and mine was no one believed the euro snowstorm and that the euro ensembles don't support it, that pattern has stunk all winter, that has been the one constant. You are hoping for a change, maybe it will happen, I don't see it. You don't like me saying that so put me on ignore. Wes, I wasn't getting pi$$y, so I don't know why you seem to be (maybe you're not, nevermind w/that comment if that's the case) it's s crummy pattern, so what we rarely get snow, even in a great pattern, so what's the difference now that it's a crummy one lol DCA/BWI need luck, plain and simple, and none of the computers can predict that the best they can do for us is to put players on the field, and though some operational or ens do it better than others, none can predict very well actual snowfall for us in the MR don't get me wrong, I love looking at them on the screen, but it doesn't happen around here, save 1 out of every 7 or 8 years you think I'm bustin' your chops, but I'm not I'm here looking for hope, however small, however irrational, that we "may" get snow (and what's wrong with that?) hence, I will always be taking a more positive, albeit unrealistic at times, perspective I'm not a met and I have nothing to gain or lose with my opinions and thoughts; I'd go as far as saying they are worth exactly what everyone here pays me for them; otoh, you have to admit some of the forecasts that have come out of certain pay sites over the years aren't worth the money people pay for them, so I guess that makes my forecasts the better deal! anyway, if I want a realistic forecast, I know where to look I hope this helps when assessing my comments to you and others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Wes, I wasn't getting pi$$y, so I don't know why you seem to be (maybe you're not, nevermind w/that comment if that's the case) it's s crummy pattern, so what we rarely get snow, even in a great pattern, so what's the difference now that it's a crummy one lol DCA/BWI need luck, plain and simple, and none of the computers can predict that the best they can do for us is to put players on the field, and though some operational or ens do it better than others, none can predict very well actual snowfall for us in the MR don't get me wrong, I love looking at them on the screen, but it doesn't happen around here, save 1 out of every 7 or 8 years you think I'm bustin' your chops, but I'm not I'm here looking for hope, however small, however irrational, that we "may" get snow (and what's wrong with that?) hence, I will always be taking a more positive, albeit unrealistic at times, perspective I'm not a met and I have nothing to gain or lose with my opinions and thoughts; I'd go as far as saying they are worth exactly what everyone here pays me for them; otoh, you have to admit some of the forecasts that have come out of certain pay sites over the years aren't worth the money people pay for them, so I guess that makes my forecasts the better deal! anyway, if I want a realistic forecast, I know where to look I hope this helps when assessing my comments to you and others Mitch, sorry I got pissy. I do think sometimes I need to post less as many really enjoy the chase and the hopes and I tend to kill them though I can be as wrong as any weenie. Anyway, hope you have a happy new years. Hopefully, we'll have something soon that will get us both excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Mitch, sorry I got pissy. I do think sometimes I need to post less as many really enjoy the chase and the hopes and I tend to kill them though I can be as wrong as any weenie. Anyway, hope you have a happy new years. Hopefully, we'll have something soon that will get us both excited. unfortunately, I can come across rather brash, and I don't mean to, so I too apologize if I did Happy New Year to you and your family too as for snow, at least we know that "next" year can't get any worse than the last month of this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It will be cold more than once and we'll probably see some accumulating snow. In January that doesn't mean we will have had a pattern change. When the NAO changes and we have a positive pna, then I'll get excited, until then, I think staying conservative will win out. Heck, many were touted a ssw event giving us a change and that never happened. Of course maybe they are right. It is really important that we do not badger scientists into telling people what they really want to hear rather than simply accepting scientific evidence. So far, in the Mid-Atlantic, we are having a year with only three seasons. So be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It is really important that we do not badger scientists into telling people what they really want to hear rather than simply accepting scientific evidence. So far, in the Mid-Atlantic, we are having a year with only three seasons. So be it. But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. this place would be far worse off if only the people always calling for snow despite reality posted. we can all get that on facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Noooooo! Don't post less!!!! Some of us value your input regardless if it is repetitive or not. wes is wrong like 5% of the time too so we can hope. plus he might miss a change that still sucks but is a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 wes is wrong like 5% of the time too so we can hope. plus he might miss a change that still sucks but is a little better. True, but he shouldn't stop posting because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Only post less when you start being repetitive just for the sake of making people upset. I'm sure you can toss a bone once in a while so you don't sound like a robot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 But people do get tired of repetition so I should probalby post a little less, that doesn't mean I'll stop posting but maybe not after each run as the individual runs don't mean much. What Mitch did was fine. Stop with this "post less" stuff. I know where you live. We need you now that there's a 186 hour GFS threat on the map for the next hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Stop with this "post less" stuff. I know where you live. We need you now that there's a 186 hour GFS threat on the map for the next hour and a half. Does the bus need a tune up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Does the bus need a tune up? There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 There is no bus...we are on the titanic right now only it's too warm to hit an iceberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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