WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Brett Anderson says: "After a brief visit early next week the ECMWF says that winter goes on another extended hiatus in the East through the end of the month, while the cold gradually takes hold out in western Canada." And he's going to post his interpretation of the Euro weeklies tonight, they sound ugly for your part of the world http://www.accuweath...-thoughts/59695 I'm sure they are dead on accurate. I'm really looking forward to my snowstorm next week. Wonder which weather map posted below will actually happen tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people. I see you Wes. At 12:00 I was golfing you must have seen my alter ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking now, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January. http://www.accuweath...-first-we/59689 Thanks for posting the link. I think Joe is one of if not the best guy one accuwx that posts long range thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Copied from the New England thread. I thought it was pretty good given the recent discussion in this thread. I'm just a watcher, but I thought the bolded was hard to argue. What, weather is largely unpredictable? nah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hm threw us a bone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The GFS seems to be alternating between cold and warm in the extended with each cycle run...seems to me something is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look. Yeah...I'm not really looking for any sustained cold....just a chance at some snow no matter how small....been around long enough to recognize what this winter has in store for us....I'm on the fluke wagon myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I sure wish I saw that something was defintely up. I still see no blocking up over greenland on any of the progs and most still have a positive epo look. The differences in runs largely is what the models do to the pna pattern. When they shift the ridge east and build it we get a cold look, when they shift it back towards the typical nina location we get a warm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao. I am pretty sure January is a bust. I bet we get one decent storm (4-6 inches) in February and a tease in March followed by a cold and dreary spring. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 the gfs looks like it's primed to dump cold air out of western canada at 360-384. but well i guess i should feel stupid for even looking that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 BTW, I've been talking with my landscaper - this would look nice in my front yard: I'm serious. That just about sums this winter up! GOOD STUFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Updated forecast for January 2012 Compared to the old forecast Part of the new forecast incorporates some sort of pattern change towards the second half of January, but I'm comfortable enough with having an above normal central and eastern U.S. overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 And the tooorch lives on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 If there is not something on the models to track by next week, I'm going to start just randomly banning people. I see you Wes. This made me LOL pretty big time. The GFS has been doing some funky things in the long range and the Euro has a another D10 cutter, whats new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Today's Euro looks ugly once the cold air moves out, next Saturday looks really toasty. It makes a big storm but takes it to the lakes by day 10. it still shows a positive nao. otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 (GFS) PNA, AO, NAO all look unimpressive though right until day 15... not much changing in that regard despite the artic looking different Ensembles all look slightly better but nothing earth shattering. PNA dipping down into the negatives on both by 1/8 and staying there. Several GFS runs have now modeled building heights into AK. A great sign. I think pattern continues now for the next 10 days. Pattern change around 1/10 begins, with differences showing by 1/20. Probably the first east coast threat featuring the metros between 20th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Im leaning toward forgetting the whole winter. We, granted, have a ways to go, but judging from all of the views, and changing views of the experts on here, hoping for snow maybe a lost cause. I can stand this winter the way it is right now. If you cant get what you want,,want. What you can get!!! Its an old sayng my father used to say to ME ANd he was from Pa snow and cold lover like me.i hope it snows for all of you. But if it doesnt what canyoudo about it????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 340 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 ...UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE...WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-010500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.120102T1200Z-120103T2200Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD... MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE 340 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING... WITH AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S MON FALLING INTO THE TEENS MON NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THOSE USING MOUNTAIN ROADS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...INCLUDING I-68 THROUGH WESTERN MARYLAND AND US-33 THROUGH EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 People are melting down everywhere it's kinda funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 otoh, its 8 day forecast last week showed an east coast bliz for Tuesday, so who knows I guess we'll see if Euro MR forecasts only bust when they show cold and snow But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The euro ensembles look pretty nice in the 11-15 day. They continue the theme of very cold air seeping into the CONUS from western and central Canada. The se ridge doesn't look terribly robust on this run. As usual, models may be a hair too fast, so if you keep that in mind..I think things seem to be slowly edging closer. But the euro ensemble never showed the snowstorm but did show the cold jolt. Now it shows a warm look that maintains the positive nao. Maybe you are talking about the 6-10 day period Wes but they sound better after that. I think we all knew that following the cold blast another warm up was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Maybe you are talking about the 6-10 day period Wes but they sound better after that. I think we all knew that following the cold blast another warm up was coming. At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 With this lack of snow I'm going to have to start considering building a snow maker. Too bad Midlo is too far to come give my lawn a blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 With this lack of snow I'm going to have to start considering building a snow maker. Too bad Midlo is too far to come give my lawn a blanket of snow. You are going to have to build a cold air maker as well. Still 50 freaking degrees at the end of December at 5:30 PM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 At day 10, it's still a bad look, maybe several days after that it gets better, i don't see those progs. I guess the bad euro weeklies don't matter? I feel like many are (have been) attached to a mid jan pattern change so they'll of course stick with it. Not to mention a better pattern for New England can still suck for us. But in January it's going to be cold at least twice I'd think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I guess the bad euro weeklies don't matter? I feel like many are (have been) attached to a mid jan pattern change so they'll of course stick with it. Not to mention a better pattern for New England can still suck for us. But in January it's going to be cold at least twice I'd think.. It will be cold more than once and we'll probably see some accumulating snow. In January that doesn't mean we will have had a pattern change. When the NAO changes and we have a positive pna, then I'll get excited, until then, I think staying conservative will win out. Heck, many were touted a ssw event giving us a change and that never happened. Of course maybe they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You are going to have to build a cold air maker as well. Still 50 freaking degrees at the end of December at 5:30 PM here. This is very true. Hopefully some chilly nights but even those have been marginal lately. EDIT: maybe I will just cover the front lawn in packing peanuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 We could easily go wire to wire warm. There really is no reason to think there will be a pattern change. I'd still like to see a few snow events. I think/hope we will but they may be in transient patterns that are just mediocre. It is kind of silly to wait for a good atlantic. We are probably going to need to work without one. Makes sense. I'm probably on the opposite end of those who have "seen" this pattern change for a month or whatever. I like seeing everyone freak out so warm is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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