Ji Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 here is the s/w the JMA says to keep an eye on(at 144) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 In 09/10 it did great outside of that fluke year it is a crap model. was also first model to pick up the Feb 11,2006 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 JB#2 likes low pressures creating a greenland block https://www.facebook...&type=1 Eventually he'll be right. The 12Z euro ensembles don't yet show it. Lots of low heights still over AK with only a marginal negative nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 here is the s/w the JMA says to keep an eye on(at 144) My Japanese is not great, can you please translate it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 i just liked his page..let the trolling begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 My Japanese is not great, can you please translate it for me. if you cant read a map...i dont think your opinion of the JMA has any merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 i just liked his page..let the trolling begin! you should try to get banned from every met on the east coast's fb page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Eventually he'll be right. The 12Z euro ensembles don't yet show it. Lots of low heights still over AK with only a marginal negative nao. maybe.. by march or april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 if you cant read a map...i dont think your opinion of the JMA has any merit I can read it as well as you which is not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here is the change in the PAC I was talking about beyond Jan 10th on the Euro ensembles...you can see its a lot different in the EPO region with the ridge amplified up into the Bering Straight. The Atlantic still stinks as noted by the PV stuck over Baffin Island...but this would likely begin a shift with much colder air over the northern CONUS...esp the N plains over to the N Lakes and perhaps further east...the bad ATL likely preventsit from penetrating SE...but a +PNA spike during this type of regime would give much better shot at a snow event than the current putrid long wave pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here is the change in the PAC I was talking about beyond Jan 10th on the Euro ensembles...you can see its a lot different in the EPO region with the ridge amplified up into the Bering Straight. The Atlantic still stinks as noted by the PV stuck over Baffin Island...but this would likely begin a shift with much colder air over the northern CONUS...esp the N plains over to the N Lakes and perhaps further east...the bad ATL likely preventsit from penetrating SE...but a +PNA spike during this type of regime would give much better shot at a snow event than the current putrid long wave pattern I know that pattern....you forgot to mention that it results in a height anomaly gradient that is biased toward New England with the default flow to our north and west....However I have accepted that you all getting into a more favorable pattern is probably better for us down the line.....in that pattern you'll get yours 1st which is fine...you do average 400% of my snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I know that pattern....you forgot to mention that it results in a height anomaly gradient that is biased toward New England with the default flow to our north and west....However I have accepted that you all getting into a more favorable pattern is probably better for us down the line.....in that pattern you'll get yours 1st which is fine...you do average 400% of my snowfall Well I did mention the northern tier gets coldest in that pattern in that post and the cold would struggle more to get into the SE. But it would certainly allow +PNA to tap into a much better source region rather than this ugly pattern or a transient -NAO or pseudo -NAO....this current PNA spike will probably not even be that impressive for the M.A. Briefly up here it will be impressive but only for a day or two. Without the -NAO, you probably won't get a big KU-esque system, but at least would have a shot at a clipper or something ala 12/5/07 or a 1-3" changeover event ala 1/27/09. Something like that. But there's virtually no shot at anything without getting a cross polar flow at some point...so its a start....hopefully we can flip the NAO for a bit at some point...even if just a 10-15 day stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 ORH, any thoughts on LES for Garrett County Sunday through Tuesday? Thinking of heading up but the timing is a bit inconvenient. I'll go if it will really come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ORH, any thoughts on LES for Garrett County Sunday through Tuesday? Thinking of heading up but the timing is a bit inconvenient. I'll go if it will really come down. I don't know the LES patterns all that well for that area, but I have to assume its going to be pretty good because 1. Models are spitting out QPF there which is always a good sign when looking for upslope-enhanced LES and 2. There should be a bit of synoptic enhancement with the strong vortmax rounding the based of the deep trough on Mon night...we end up with a very deep layer of RH which can only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I know that pattern....you forgot to mention that it results in a height anomaly gradient that is biased toward New England with the default flow to our north and west....However I have accepted that you all getting into a more favorable pattern is probably better for us down the line.....in that pattern you'll get yours 1st which is fine...you do average 400% of my snowfall That's still a pattern that looks like the ridge in the pacific is farther west than we'd like and might put low heights over the southwest with a ridge over the southeast. I guess I'm saying I still don't see that as much help to us but seeing so little of the map, it's hard to know fro sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The JMA is rarely right so i would not worry about the precip type . Now i see why you won weenie of the decade, discussing the JMA like it is a legitimate model. No offense, but it is a legitimate model (for the most part)....exhibiting skill (for lead teams up to 5ish days) on par with some of the operational globals (including beating the Canadian, and in the ballpark-ish of the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 New 00z GFS is wretched. Doesn't even let us keep the trough until Thursday before warming back up. This really blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month Sorry, guess I was hoping to see that trough stick around longer this week but if you say it's good then it must be decent...did look better in the 300hr range assuming it is right...just get anxious for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month it is uber transient and gets replaced with a monster vortex....I don't think it matters much...the pattern is so fast I doubt the models have a handle on it...The euro did have the PNA spike next week for a while but it is a significant feature that deviates pretty strongly from the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No offense, but it is a legitimate model (for the most part)....exhibiting skill (for lead teams up to 5ish days) on par with some of the operational globals (including beating the Canadian, and in the ballpark-ish of the GFS). No offense taken at all, you know alot more about models than me. Like JI said except for some of the huge storms over the past 5 years i could have sworn it was terrible on most other storms. You are saying its verification scores over the past 5 years has beaten the Canadian and is almost as good as the GFS?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 No offense taken at all, you know alot more about models than me. Like JI said except for some of the huge storms over the past 5 years i could have sworn it was terrible on most other storms. You are saying its verification scores over the past 5 years has beaten the Canadian and is almost as good as the GFS?. I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. That is what i figured, but since he works for the NWS and he compared it to the GFS which they think is the holy grail i figured it must be a good model without me realizing it. The UKMET would be great if i could move my house 500 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month I am counting on the euro tonight to bring us hope....it is the last run I will be tracking until 2012, except maybe a brief glance from my phone....i would happily take something weak into a stale decaying air mass that gives us snow to rain...we can't expect a 180 degree flip like we got in the 2004, 2006 weak ninos....Nina is our absolute enemy....it isn't a very strong episode, but it is basin wide and a force to be reckoned with.....and so all other things being equal it is going to give us a +EPO and a -PNA....I am not educated in the physics, but we need something to step up....strong MJO, SSW event, or a block....I would even take a block over Ireland...something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Could you please explain to me what things are taken into account to get the verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Could you please explain to me what things are taken into account to get the verification score. One common metric is 500 mb anomaly correlation. I think the general rule is that those statistics tend to encompass more than "that model didn't do well that last time I was suppose to get a snowstorm in my backyard". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think for us amateurs verification scores don't really paint a picture of model bias and performance for our limited purposes....I think some of the "lesser" models may have some utility....that said, the Canadian is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Or the model moves the low track from Chicago to Bermuda in 6 hours. Yeah, I'm sure it nailed a 500mb swirl in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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