ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here is the change in the PAC I was talking about beyond Jan 10th on the Euro ensembles...you can see its a lot different in the EPO region with the ridge amplified up into the Bering Straight. The Atlantic still stinks as noted by the PV stuck over Baffin Island...but this would likely begin a shift with much colder air over the northern CONUS...esp the N plains over to the N Lakes and perhaps further east...the bad ATL likely preventsit from penetrating SE...but a +PNA spike during this type of regime would give much better shot at a snow event than the current putrid long wave pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I know that pattern....you forgot to mention that it results in a height anomaly gradient that is biased toward New England with the default flow to our north and west....However I have accepted that you all getting into a more favorable pattern is probably better for us down the line.....in that pattern you'll get yours 1st which is fine...you do average 400% of my snowfall Well I did mention the northern tier gets coldest in that pattern in that post and the cold would struggle more to get into the SE. But it would certainly allow +PNA to tap into a much better source region rather than this ugly pattern or a transient -NAO or pseudo -NAO....this current PNA spike will probably not even be that impressive for the M.A. Briefly up here it will be impressive but only for a day or two. Without the -NAO, you probably won't get a big KU-esque system, but at least would have a shot at a clipper or something ala 12/5/07 or a 1-3" changeover event ala 1/27/09. Something like that. But there's virtually no shot at anything without getting a cross polar flow at some point...so its a start....hopefully we can flip the NAO for a bit at some point...even if just a 10-15 day stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 ORH, any thoughts on LES for Garrett County Sunday through Tuesday? Thinking of heading up but the timing is a bit inconvenient. I'll go if it will really come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ORH, any thoughts on LES for Garrett County Sunday through Tuesday? Thinking of heading up but the timing is a bit inconvenient. I'll go if it will really come down. I don't know the LES patterns all that well for that area, but I have to assume its going to be pretty good because 1. Models are spitting out QPF there which is always a good sign when looking for upslope-enhanced LES and 2. There should be a bit of synoptic enhancement with the strong vortmax rounding the based of the deep trough on Mon night...we end up with a very deep layer of RH which can only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I know that pattern....you forgot to mention that it results in a height anomaly gradient that is biased toward New England with the default flow to our north and west....However I have accepted that you all getting into a more favorable pattern is probably better for us down the line.....in that pattern you'll get yours 1st which is fine...you do average 400% of my snowfall That's still a pattern that looks like the ridge in the pacific is farther west than we'd like and might put low heights over the southwest with a ridge over the southeast. I guess I'm saying I still don't see that as much help to us but seeing so little of the map, it's hard to know fro sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The JMA is rarely right so i would not worry about the precip type . Now i see why you won weenie of the decade, discussing the JMA like it is a legitimate model. No offense, but it is a legitimate model (for the most part)....exhibiting skill (for lead teams up to 5ish days) on par with some of the operational globals (including beating the Canadian, and in the ballpark-ish of the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 New 00z GFS is wretched. Doesn't even let us keep the trough until Thursday before warming back up. This really blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good gfs run....major -epo mid month Sorry, guess I was hoping to see that trough stick around longer this week but if you say it's good then it must be decent...did look better in the 300hr range assuming it is right...just get anxious for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No offense, but it is a legitimate model (for the most part)....exhibiting skill (for lead teams up to 5ish days) on par with some of the operational globals (including beating the Canadian, and in the ballpark-ish of the GFS). No offense taken at all, you know alot more about models than me. Like JI said except for some of the huge storms over the past 5 years i could have sworn it was terrible on most other storms. You are saying its verification scores over the past 5 years has beaten the Canadian and is almost as good as the GFS?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 No offense taken at all, you know alot more about models than me. Like JI said except for some of the huge storms over the past 5 years i could have sworn it was terrible on most other storms. You are saying its verification scores over the past 5 years has beaten the Canadian and is almost as good as the GFS?. I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. That is what i figured, but since he works for the NWS and he compared it to the GFS which they think is the holy grail i figured it must be a good model without me realizing it. The UKMET would be great if i could move my house 500 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think these are the same scores that said the UKMET was the second-best model at one point. Stats can be presented in many different ways. The UKMET is a POS as far as I am concerned. weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Could you please explain to me what things are taken into account to get the verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Could you please explain to me what things are taken into account to get the verification score. One common metric is 500 mb anomaly correlation. I think the general rule is that those statistics tend to encompass more than "that model didn't do well that last time I was suppose to get a snowstorm in my backyard". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 weenie verification...no statistics necessary. Model doesn't give me snow = model sucks. Or the model moves the low track from Chicago to Bermuda in 6 hours. Yeah, I'm sure it nailed a 500mb swirl in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think for us amateurs verification scores don't really paint a picture of model bias and performance for our limited purposes....I think some of the "lesser" models may have some utility....that said, the Canadian is terrible Wes seems to only look at the GFS and Euro, with the SREFs and NAM sometimes close in. That is all I need even if the UKMET is kicking ass at the upper levels over Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Or the model moves the low track from Chicago to Bermuda in 6 hours. Yeah, I'm sure it nailed a 500mb swirl in Canada. Good thing the euro only runs ever 12 hours because it would had fit your "model sucks always" criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think for us amateurs verification scores don't really paint a picture of model bias and performance for our limited purposes....I think some of the "lesser" models may have some utility....that said, the Canadian is terrible I agree, not all models are created equal, next time you all have your American WX conference you should try to get an NWP and/or DA expert to do a short course on NWP prediction/data assimilation, it would definitely open some eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA might not make it above freezing on Monday. Tuesday (corrected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA might not make it above freezing on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think you meant Tuesday? STRONG COLD ADVCTN WILL OCCUR ON TUE AS ARCTIC AMS OVERTAKES THE NERN CONUS. H9 TEMPS AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 BLW ZERO COULD LEAD TO MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND MINIMA IN TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS XPCD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think you meant Tuesday? STRONG COLD ADVCTN WILL OCCUR ON TUE AS ARCTIC AMS OVERTAKES THE NERN CONUS. H9 TEMPS AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 BLW ZERO COULD LEAD TO MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND MINIMA IN TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS XPCD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Yes I did... thanks for catching that. Quick glancing FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z Gfs gets cold again at end of the run after blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z Gfs looks like a true pattern change with amazing Alaska block and maybe a split flow. Looks like historic us cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sorry for derailing the thread by sticking up for the JMA of all things. First, I was referring to relative recent history (on the order of months to the past year, not 5 years). These days, because of computing power, models tend to change fairly rapidly (we do a major upgrade on the time scale of once a year, or every other year). As has been stated, the biggest issues with models like UKMet, JMA, etc. is access to timely data and nice graphics; as well as lack of familiarity. The GFS is the first model available, it is generally a decent model (not at good as the EC), and has a very long history (for folks to develop familiarity). Anyone that says the UKMet is a terrible model is clueless. The difference between the UKMet and GFS at day 5 for the past month or two is significant at the 95% confidence level. BTW, we look at much more than 500 hPa AC when doing model assessment, though that is established by the WMO as one of the (main) standards for international comparison. We do analysis-based verification (various levels, many variables), comparisons to observations (surface, aloft, in situ, remote-based), and I suppose there is always the subjective aspect. The point I was trying to make is that the JMA is not a terrible model (right now it's better than the NOGAPS and Canadian by most measures....but not quite as good as the GFS, UKMet, nor EC). However, it's difficult to use for most people because of lack of familiarity. Sorry again for the sidebar....now back to the discussion about this crappy period. Bring on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sorry for derailing the thread ... I doubt anyone thinks that you are derailing the thread. It's an interesting discussion, especially from a pro perspective. As far as verification is concerned, I would guess that at least half of us, me included, would be pretty clueless in what to look for to determine if a model did well other than our own backyard. Back to topic, I'm disappointed that Matt's euro play by play isn't here from last night, but also glad that I didn't get "just one more beer" and stay up for it. It must not have shown anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z Gfs looks like a true pattern change with amazing Alaska block and maybe a split flow. Looks like historic us cold lol The ensemble mean does'n't look near as rosey. It still shows lower the normal heights over the west and the ridge in the pacific retrograding so if there was cold it would probably be in the west rather than the east. The one big caveat is there are a couple of cold looking members. none have quite the massive ridge that the gfs has but some do look to have enough ridging to bring down cold air. I don't trust such a strong ridge but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Back to topic, I'm disappointed that Matt's euro play by play isn't here from last night, but also glad that I didn't get "just one more beer" and stay up for it. It must not have shown anything good. Other than -18C 850s over DC Tuesday night there's not much to talk about. Raw 2m temps fall into the mid to upper teens north of DC (though the ensembles would suggest that gets bumped up a couple of degrees). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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