January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

[usedtobe]

If you don't make it snow soon i am about to hit you in the head .

I'm always more popular in a snowy pattern, everyone loved me in 2009-2010 except probably JI in the middle of Jan and again in March.

[ravensrule]

I'm always more popular in a snowy pattern, everyone loved me in 2009-2010 except probably JI in the middle of Jan and again in March.

You are always popular Wes, for someone who knows everything you are so patient with all of us weenies. This is just starting to tick me off because it is looking more and more like we will be shut out until at least Jan 15th and even that date is best case scenario . According to the Euro weeklies we are screwed until the last week in Jan. No snow makes me irrational.

[Ian]

The GFS ensemble mean looks like it likes the flattening of the ridge and putting a weak negative anomaly over the southwest. The ridge retrogression towards a negative PNa/positive epo look with a positive noa would give us some warm days. The only good think you can say is the models ahve not been stellar so their look could be wrong.

i think your call for jan is unfortunately pretty good. we're almost never not going to have an arctic outbreak or two during the winter. it's not going to last long tho it seems.

[usedtobe]

i think your call for jan is unfortunately pretty good. we're almost never not going to have an arctic outbreak or two during the winter. it's not going to last long tho it seems.

I'm feeling good about it today. If if works, Bob Chill will be the man. I just liked his stats and of course Don's. If we get a surprise and the models flip then of course it's Bob's fault.

[Deck Pic]

i think your call for jan is unfortunately pretty good. we're almost never not going to have an arctic outbreak or two during the winter. it's not going to last long tho it seems.

it is garden variety not only in its transience, but in impact as well....I posted this in the other thread, but in our torchiest 5 ninas, the min-max for the season was between 27-32 and the min between 15-18.....not much spread....not sure how low we go, but if we approach those ranges, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that this outbreak may be our coldest of the winter

[usedtobe]

it is garden variety not only in its transience, but in impact as well....I posted this in the other thread, but in our torchiest 5 ninas, the min-max for the season was between 27-32 and the min between 15-18.....not much spread....not sure how low we go, but if we approach those ranges, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that this outbreak may be our coldest of the winter

Didn't most of those years have more than one cold jolt?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

If that holds, then it looks like a lot of assumptions so far this winter will have been a bit misguided.

Hasn't that been the case so far this season, possibly even moreso compared to other years? I'm not asking that to be facetious, but am really curious. Somehow, I recall a fair number of people thought December would be colder/better, and then maybe decent again toward the end of the winter (later in Feb/Mar?), but in-between it would be blah. Maybe that was more of the typical Nina thinking. I think many obviously changed that idea toward the end of November when it became apparent that December was most likely going to be quite warm overall. Again, not saying this to be critical in any way, but it is interesting that a lot seems to have gone against what one would expect. Of course, it doesn't help that the models have performed rather poorly in the medium-longer range so far this winter (as some have alluded to)!

[Deck Pic]

Didn't most of those years have more than one cold jolt?

they did....almost all were short....even in 2001-02 we had a min-max of 32 and a min of 19....so at the top of that range...GFS MOS has coldest max at 35 and min at 23....not sure what will end up happening...but if that is as low as we go, we probably exceed both max/min at other points this winter....this is a decent cold push, but looks to me like we don't maximize the potential here..we are kind of fringed....40N should have bigger negative departures than we do for TU-THU

[ORH_wxman]

dry and cold and then back to a wretched pattern....The North Atlantic ridge that looked promising 24 hours ago is now over central Europe....no indications of a split flow....I guess there is some comfort in knowing the models are all over the place so maybe the changes we need won't be well modeled....Will and HM were discussing it last night...I don't grasp the entirety of their convo, but I do know the MJO is looking better than it has in a while....THere is a real good chance we are out of phase 5 by the end of the weekend

The MJO is finally getting out of phase 5...but the problem is that it stays quite weak as it circles around to phase 7/8/1....so I don't think its impact will be great. I guess little or no impact is much better than high impact in phase 5....but we don't look to shuffle the PAC up until after Jan 10 at the earliest. The EC ensembles have been hinting post-Jan 10th is when it might happen, but I told Wes on the main forum (and I think ive mentioned it here too) that often these changes are rushed.

Its too bad the ridge axis wasn't a bit west in this upcoming pattern because the amplitude is really impressive...but the axis kept trending east so any wave development ends up offshore.

[frostbite_falls]

Our little flizzard up here in the north lands continues; the ground (except for pavement) is actually getting white.

[usedtobe]

Hasn't that been the case so far this season, possibly even moreso compared to other years? I'm not asking that to be facetious, but am really curious. Somehow, I recall a fair number of people thought December would be colder/better, and then maybe decent again toward the end of the winter (later in Feb/Mar?), but in-between it would be blah. Maybe that was more of the typical Nina thinking. I think many obviously changed that idea toward the end of November when it became apparent that December was most likely going to be quite warm overall. Again, not saying this to be critical in any way, but it is interesting that a lot seems to have gone against what one would expect. Of course, it doesn't help that the models have performed rather poorly in the medium-longer range so far this winter (as some have alluded to)!

Long range guesses/forecasts are often not very good that's why CPC uses equal chances for such large areas. They know from verification that there is not much skill. One of the regions there is the least skill in long range forecasts is in the northeast to our latitude. One thing that tricked most people including me was that the NAO would be negative during December, However by mid Nov when it spiked, it became obvious that we were in a strong vortex event and they usually last awhile so Dec was probably lost. During a la nina year with a positive AO, it torches over the northern PLains instead of ending up colder than normal which is the usual La Nina signature. How soon the high latitudes change will determine what happens during much of the remainder of the winter. I've gotten where I don't like making calls except for a month at a time right before the month begins but I don't make a living as a long range forecaster.

[usedtobe]

they did....almost all were short....even in 2001-02 we had a min-max of 32 and a min of 19....so at the top of that range...GFS MOS has coldest max at 35 and min at 23....not sure what will end up happening...but if that is as low as we go, we probably exceed both max/min at other points this winter....this is a decent cold push, but looks to me like we don't maximize the potential here..we are kind of fringed....40N should have bigger negative departures than we do for TU-THU

I was at HPC and that was what Frank Rosenstein was noting, he thought the coldest departures would be to the north. He also noted that the winds could keep the min temps up higher than they would be if the wind would die down.

[Deck Pic]

The MJO is finally getting out of phase 5...but the problem is that it stays quite weak as it circles around to phase 7/8/1....so I don't think its impact will be great. I guess little or no impact is much better than high impact in phase 5....but we don't look to shuffle the PAC up until after Jan 10 at the earliest. The EC ensembles have been hinting post-Jan 10th is when it might happen, but I told Wes on the main forum (and I think ive mentioned it here too) that often these changes are rushed.

Its too bad the ridge axis wasn't a bit west in this upcoming pattern because the amplitude is really impressive...but the axis kept trending east so any wave development ends up offshore.

I don't have any confidence here at 40S that we will have a serviceable pattern for any length of time this entire winter...we are just entering more favorable climo, so at some point we'll get a clipper or time something better when we get another PNA spike....I am done the fool's errand of waiting for a block....other people can feel free to anticipate one....if it comes it comes....I still think I do 70%+ of climo, but most of it will probably come in 2 events....I doubt I get more than 4-5 more accumulating snow events and 2-3 of those will probably be cartoppers....

[mdsnowlover]

Hasn't that been the case so far this season, possibly even moreso compared to other years? I'm not asking that to be facetious, but am really curious. Somehow, I recall a fair number of people thought December would be colder/better, and then maybe decent again toward the end of the winter (later in Feb/Mar?), but in-between it would be blah. Maybe that was more of the typical Nina thinking. I think many obviously changed that idea toward the end of November when it became apparent that December was most likely going to be quite warm overall. Again, not saying this to be critical in any way, but it is interesting that a lot seems to have gone against what one would expect. Of course, it doesn't help that the models have performed rather poorly in the medium-longer range so far this winter (as some have alluded to)!

[Golly]

If the projected gfs 500mb temp of -38 verifies for monday pm, then there will be snow showers across the lower elevs

of the MA to the coast.. Proly into tuesday too..

Convective snow is my favorite flavour...heh

[ORH_wxman]

I don't have any confidence here at 40S that we will have a serviceable pattern for any length of time this entire winter...we are just entering more favorable climo, so at some point we'll get a clipper or time something better when we get another PNA spike....I am done the fool's errand of waiting for a block....other people can feel free to anticipate one....if it comes it comes....I still think I do 70%+ of climo, but most of it will probably come in 2 events....I doubt I get more than 4-5 more accumulating snow events and 2-3 of those will probably be cartoppers....

The NAO definitely seems to not want to go into a blocking pattern...even with the changes trying to happen on the PAC side (whether they come true or not) in the long range, the PV just wants to rot over Baffin Island with no hints at changing.

[Deck Pic]

I was at HPC and that was what Frank Rosenstein was noting, he thought the coldest departures would be to the north. He also noted that the winds could keep the min temps up higher than they would be if the wind would die down.

euro has highs in the upper 20s on Wednesday....if that occurred, that could easily be our coldest max of the season....but I think it is too cold....Tuesday we may get screwed by a midnight max....Thursday looks like it moderates...my WAG right now is that we see a max of 33-36 one of the days and a min of 23-26.....and that we see colder of both somewhere down the line....

[Kevin Druff]

euro has highs in the upper 20s on Wednesday....if that occurred, that could easily be our coldest max of the season....but I think it is too cold....Tuesday we may get screwed by a midnight max....Thursday looks like it moderates...my WAG right now is that we see a max of 33-36 one of the days and a min of 23-26.....and that we see colder of both somewhere down the line....

I've already been down to 21 this winter. I can't imagine the max is 23-26 as this air mass looks quite a bit cooler than that one.

Edit: Looking back at daily records from last winter, I was routinely in the mid-to-upper teens at night.

[Ian]

I've already been down to 21 this winter. I can't imagine the max is 23-26 as this air mass looks quite a bit cooler than that one.

Edit: Looking back at daily records from last winter, I was routinely in the mid-to-upper teens at night.

i think that's just dc

[Deck Pic]

I've already been down to 21 this winter. I can't imagine the max is 23-26 as this air mass looks quite a bit cooler than that one.

Edit: Looking back at daily records from last winter, I was routinely in the mid-to-upper teens at night.

yes...as Ian said...just DCA

[Amped]

Whover had CTblizz as the first to have a meltdown wins the pool.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31439-the-snowless-winter-thread/

[Ji]

that JMA takes that s/w that the 12z GFS had had and actually cuts it off much further north...result is a major coastal bomb on top of Hatterras..unfortutnately the cold air source is gone and we probably get a heavy rain storm

[PhineasC]

that JMA takes that s/w that the 12z GFS had had and actually cuts it off much further north...result is a major coastal bomb on top of Hatterras..unfortutnately the cold air source is gone and we probably get a heavy rain storm

Sounds about right for a Nina.

[Ji]

Sounds about right for a Nina.

JMA shows a major storm....temps would be cold enough to start off as snow before a change over lol(this is in the 168-192 slot)

[Ian]

JB#2 likes low pressures creating a greenland block

[ravensrule]

JMA shows a major storm....temps would be cold enough to start off as snow before a change over lol(this is in the 168-192 slot)

The JMA is rarely right so i would not worry about the precip type . Now i see why you won weenie of the decade, discussing the JMA like it is a legitimate model.

[ravensrule]

JB#2 likes low pressures creating a greenland block

https://www.facebook...&type=1

Oh no, are you going to troll him again.

[Ji]

The JMA is rarely right so i would not worry about the precip type . Now i see why you won weenie of the decade, discussing the JMA like it is a legitimate model.

JMA has been amongst the first models in the past 5 or so years to pickup huge storms

[Ji]

JB#2 likes low pressures creating a greenland block

https://www.facebook...&type=1

his map is exactly why we havent had snow this year...

[ravensrule]

JMA has been amongst the first models in the past 5 or so years to pickup huge storms

In 09/10 it did great outside of that fluke year it is a crap model.