PhineasC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Let's bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This is Loltastic: Start the New Year with the Professional Winter Update Webinar – available to Professional subscribers only. We’ll take about an hour to discuss our updated Winter Forecast, and answer your winter weather questions. AccuWeather has just released an update to our 2011-2012 Winter Forecast. Despite a warm start in parts of the northeast, our long-range team expects a "brutal winter for parts of the U.S." with major storms possible for the northeast and New England. Henry Margusity, Senior Expert Meteorologist, will present the Winter Update Forecast and be available for a question and answer session at the end. This new feature is just one advantage to forecasting your world through your one-stop Meteorological Workstation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This is Loltastic: Start the New Year with the Professional Winter Update Webinar – available to Professional subscribers only. We’ll take about an hour to discuss our updated Winter Forecast, and answer your winter weather questions. AccuWeather has just released an update to our 2011-2012 Winter Forecast. Despite a warm start in parts of the northeast, our long-range team expects a "brutal winter for parts of the U.S." with major storms possible for the northeast and New England. Henry Margusity, Senior Expert Meteorologist, will present the Winter Update Forecast and be available for a question and answer session at the end. This new feature is just one advantage to forecasting your world through your one-stop Meteorological Workstation. "Senior Expert" Met did he get that title before or after he got off double-secret probation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 "Senior Expert" Met did he get that title before or after he got off double-secret probation? That was the best part of the story, it is amazing that he gets paid for what he does. At least we know the storm next week has a chance because he said the EURO is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 from the other thread regarding the models: that's the problem...even if it has more skill than the GFS overall, it skill lacks a lot of skill at day 7-8....It is very possible that it is more right than the GFS with the amplitude of the ridge, yet we still get no storm or an OTS solution....I am less worried about day 7-8 when day 4-5 are so different....the 500mb patterns are widely divergent by 100-120 hours.....I assume we will see the models come to some agreement on that within the next 48 hours....It isn't like the GFS is just missing a phase or something...it isn't even remotely close to having a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This steroids ridge that the euro is showing develops this Saturday...we aren't talking that far away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Outside of next week's threat, both the GFS and Euro agree with moving the pv further S and building some ridging around the pole. The euro kinda breaks up the pv into pieces. Nothing is showing the AO going negative but you can't get a -NAO without breaking up or weaking that damn monsterous pv that has been killing us for the last 6 weeks. The latest gfs is showing ridging building towards greenland out in fantasyland. It's semi believable this time though. I think that is probably the most significant hint that the models are potentially picking up a something. Will it be a better pattern for us? It really can't get all that much worse so I'll go out on a limb and say that things are looking a bit better for the middle to second half of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I can't tell if Matt is on board or not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Regardless of whether or not the 1/3 storm pans out, I think our torch days are over for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Outside of next week's threat, both the GFS and Euro agree with moving the pv further S and building some ridging around the pole. The euro kinda breaks up the pv into pieces. Nothing is showing the AO going negative but you can't get a -NAO without breaking up or weaking that damn monsterous pv that has been killing us for the last 6 weeks. The latest gfs is showing ridging building towards greenland out in fantasyland. It's semi believable this time though. I think that is probably the most significant hint that the models are potentially picking up a something. Will it be a better pattern for us? It really can't get all that much worse so I'll go out on a limb and say that things are looking a bit better for the middle to second half of Jan. I noticed this from the Euro 500 MB map loop you posted earlier. The Euro looks to split the PV into two pieces with one moving NW and the other moving ESE on the map loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I can't tell if Matt is on board or not lol How can anyone be on board or not on board a threat at day 7/8? In this pattern, stuff can go wrong even at day 1........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 How can anyone be on board or not on board a threat at day 7/8? maybe you just started posting here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 I can't tell if Matt is on board or not lol I think he is intrigued just like everyone else and also a little desperate for snow like everyone else. I think if we see the Euro and a few other models still talking storm this Friday the whole forum will be hopping like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think he is intrigued just like everyone else and also a little desperate for snow like everyone else. I think if we see the Euro and a few other models still talking storm this Friday the whole forum will be hopping like usual. yes....but it is still a hostile pattern so nailing down details is impossible at this range....and the GFS is nowhere even close to being in the same ballpark by day 4/5......so, I think intrigued is a good word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 How can anyone be on board or not on board a threat at day 7/8? In this pattern, stuff can go wrong even at day 1........ I agree. Was just loling at your "next" post followed by posts explaining how it could be right or wrong. I thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I agree. Was just loling at your "next" post followed by posts explaining how it could be right or wrong. I thought it was funny. I was kind of joking about the fact that Evan started a thread....then I realized Ian asked him to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I was kind of joking about the fact that Evan started a thread....then I realized Ian asked him to lol... If it fails, we all should blame Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol... If it fails, we all should blame Ian that's the ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol... If it fails, we all should blame Ian Absolutely not. Ian has already promised us the snowiest January known to human history, and this storm is clearly step 1 toward fulfilling that promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 that's the ticket Hope you had a wonderful Christmas, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Absolutely not. Ian has already promised us the snowiest January known to human history, and this storm is clearly step 1 toward fulfilling that promise. exactly why i have not already punted it. Hope you had a wonderful Christmas, Ian. wasnt too bad.. ditto to you. sorry i didnt respond to your email.. was not on computer much and dont usually respond to things on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 wasnt too bad.. ditto to you. sorry i didnt respond to your email.. was not on computer much and dont usually respond to things on phone. It's ok, I'll forgive ya. But I'm glad you haven't punted this possible system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 I hope the GFS picks this up tonight. Sort of boring to track a storm for a week just on the Euro. Need that GFS porn to really go full weenie. GGEM doesn't count. That model is a piece of Canadian garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I see on the Euro model for next Tuesday the 3rd of January a possible snowstorm racing up the the mid Atlantic northeast seaboard. The GFS shows notta the last time I looked. Figures the GFS is not picking it up because the NAO is still (positive+). Still to early, but I do not like the look on this one until we get the NAO to go (negative-). AO is still (positive+) but that can be altered quickly at times, but like I said I do not think this one will be the snowstorm everyone seems to be looking for.. I could be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I hope the GFS picks this up tonight. Sort of boring to track a storm for a week just on the Euro. Need that GFS porn to really go full weenie. GGEM doesn't count. That model is a piece of Canadian garbage. Yoda won't be happy you said this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Wasn't the Jan 2000 storm a +AO? Any other examples of a neutral or positive AO and big snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Absolutely not. Ian has already promised us the snowiest January known to human history, and this storm is clearly step 1 toward fulfilling that promise. I know you are joking with Ian, but it would be fascinating from a weather perspective, and desirable to boot, if this winter just totally flipped and we had an epic Jan to mid March period. Even though I hated it, the 89-90 flip is still one of the most fascinating I can remember. Maybe this one works in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supertyphoon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 First timer on this board....enjoy seeing the conversation! Given the La Nina year, one would expect a smaller window for the bigger snow events to have the opportunity to happen. Climatologically, the lowest mean temps are in late Jan, so the window would be +- a few weeks around that time, which is where we're getting into. Main point here is even with a neutral to slightly positive NAO, a moderate snow event is possible. Obviously the models need to sort out the northern stream waves, but encouraging that the Euro has had some consistency with this for several runs. 18Z run (although off-time) was definitely more energetic than the 12Z zonal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Wasn't the Jan 2000 storm a +AO? Any other examples of a neutral or positive AO and big snow? Yes but the nao was negative during most of the storm and according to Don sutherland it was the only postive AO storm that occurred in a la nina year. Other positive nao storms were 18-20 Feb 1972, 5-7 Feb 1978, feb 8-12 1994, feb 2-4, 1995 are other examples of KU major snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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