Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Also it takes awhile to update but this is a great site for the GGEM maps in color. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Thanks, that site has been in my arsenal for a bit now. I love the different parameters they offer, precip type etc. I generally check it out closer after E-Wall's have finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 bleh, day 6 GGEM shows the S/W just reinforcing the broad trough in the east. Nothing to see there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Imo we need the trough to be set up a little further to the west. Since it is so far to the east, by the time the trough goes negative it is off the coast. Hopefully things will change but right now this is looking like a fish storm to me. Another concern is 2m temps are really shooting up by the time the moisture arrives. Not trying to be a Debbie downer here, this is just my opinion. GFS almost always has the storm to far east initially, if there is a storm I bet it will be futher west.. GFS will correct itself west. Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GFS almost always has the storm to far east initially, if there is a storm I bet it will be futher west.. GFS will correct itself west. Imo Go west young man go west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Good for me and the dusting I would get...if even that. Bad for everyone else to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GFS almost always has the storm to far east initially, if there is a storm I bet it will be futher west.. GFS will correct itself west. Imo It's possible (we know how the gfs is) but there are others things that are going to have to change in order to get the slp further west. I'm no expert but imo we either need the trough to be further west or the s/w to dig like crazy to make the turn. After that we'll have to deal w/ surface temps. Of course I'll continue to watch it but so far I don't like what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It's possible (we know how the gfs is) but there are others things that are going to have to change in order to get the slp further west. I'm no expert but imo we either need the trough to be further west or the s/w to dig like crazy to make the turn. After that we'll have to deal w/ surface temps. Of course I'll continue to watch it but so far I don't like what I'm seeing. Well atleast we have something to talk about, lol. That's a step in the right direction! From what we've seen this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I think someone near the coast may have something to follow, and if that vort is strong enough (midweek) it might squeeze out a few pockets of measurable snow on its trek southeast, Wouldn't be anything big, but 1-3 type stuff wouldn't be out of the question I wouldn't think. JMO Mountains will also have a couple of bouts of upslope likely too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hate the look of 12z GFS day 10-15 this run. Sends the PNA in the tank and spikes the AO through the roof. Hopefully it's out to lunch. Another big swing in the other direction v/s previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned. This is from NWS in Tallahassee....Was also posted on another forum....Interesting to say the least... Im I sensing the possibility of Southern Slider? the exact scenario to bring snow to the SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 bleh, day 6 GGEM shows the S/W just reinforcing the broad trough in the east. Nothing to see there... Yeah, the Canadian is fairly cold with the initial trough, but the 2nd wave stays north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Im I sensing the possibility of Southern Slider? the exact scenario to bring snow to the SC coast 12z ens mean has it, 0z @ 192 for comparison 12z @ 192, likely several members with a good look for coastal sections, maybe another 6z p001 or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z ens mean has it, 0z @ 192 for comparison 12z @ 192, likely several members with a good look for coastal sections, maybe another 6z p001 or two I know its cliche to '89 the thing, but these are the exact scenarios to get these sneaky little systems to produce for us down here. after disappointment in the last 2 winters with colder setups, I welcome just the possibilities for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I've been honking on the coastal threat for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I know its cliche to '89 the thing, but these are the exact scenarios to get these sneaky little systems to produce for us down here. after disappointment in the last 2 winters with colder setups, I welcome just the possibilities for now. Bring it!! I'm ready for snow before I move to Florida...was here during the 1989 storm. One more for the road I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z Euro really brings in the cold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z Euro really brings in the cold this run. Yep has freezing SFC temps almost down to Orlando at hour 144...very cold run this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 By the way Euro is out to 180 and the coastal development is close but nothing really makes it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z ens mean has it, 0z @ 192 for comparison 12z @ 192, likely several members with a good look for coastal sections, maybe another 6z p001 or two Just to clarify, is that big bold blue line the freezing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Nothing to see on the 12z euro except cold and dry. The gfs has the sharper trough lasting into the later part of next week where the euro doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just to clarify, is that big bold blue line the freezing line? 0C @ 850mb, about 5000' up. 12z Euro looks to be a "what coastal" type of run, pos tilted trough coming through around 168. 18z GFS will likely be an epic run, watch... New JMA shows a hit so we know somethings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Well, it seems things are definitely looking interesting right now. Of course, we are a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0C @ 850mb, about 5000' up. 12z Euro looks to be a "what coastal" type of run, pos tilted trough coming through around 168. 18z GFS will likely be an epic run, watch... New JMA shows a hit so we know somethings is up. Uh oh! The JMA is a hit? I might have to start changing my tune then. We all know the JMA picks up on the big ones first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0C @ 850mb, about 5000' up. 12z Euro looks to be a "what coastal" type of run, pos tilted trough coming through around 168. 18z GFS will likely be an epic run, watch... New JMA shows a hit so we know somethings is up. got a pic for the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 got a pic for the JMA? @96 it has us with like .25 over 24 hours with enough cold air in place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Cue the "well the JMA did surprisingly well on (insert here) storm so it could be on to something" ------ crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'm always up for something good to look at to help me fantasize. I just looked at the JMA out to 144 I don't see anything to get excited about. It does show the next s/w diving down on the back side of the trough at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Uh oh! The JMA is a hit? I might have to start changing my tune then. We all know the JMA picks up on the big ones first. All we need is the DGEX to get on board and it's a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All we need is the DGEX to get on board and it's a lock! DGEX was on board at 6Z for some coastal development with the second s/w diving down on the backside of the trough around hour 180 but it was just a tad too far offshore to help anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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