LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Let's be clear. The Bears were right about Dec. Now, moving onto January: The Bears will probably be right again. I'm not saying blowtorch like Dec. Normal temps is my Jan forecast. No, that's not a cop-out. Let's break it down. Sherman's stratospheric march to the pole continues. Some years it never matters, but let's give it the benefit of the doubt since the MJO/GWO should go into phases more friendly for Southeast cold. However the stratospheric warming is trying to wrap around from Asia into Alaska. That would be great for a +PNA, iff the warming gets down to 500mb. Good stuff if you like cold and sunny northwest flow. Occasional real snow for the ski areas and plenty of snow making. OK the ensembles want to block up Greenland more. However the ensembles open the door for a trough out West. Great -AO for the Northeast while the Southeast ridge holds. Either way the Southeast is missing an ingredient. Don't bank on the AO alone based on last years record low values. As the Israelis say, don't get caught fighting the last war. Snow lovers might root for the ensembles as the best chance for more southern stream lows ejecting out of Texas. However the marginal cold game would continue, with only slightly better results only because normals are colder. Bottom line: I'm looking for a variable pattern. Cold next week. Mild the following week or two (more likely two). The West and even Plains may get cold right after Martin Luther King Day. The Southeast will need to wait until the end of Jan. The math, if my forecast is right, points to just normal temperatures on average for the month of Jan. Risk is to the warm side. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 That made me laugh out loud.....fantastic. I hate the gaseous precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hmmm...12z GFS is saying we might have some flurries on Monday...is it just me or does it look close to popping something bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hmmm...12z GFS is saying we might have some flurries on Monday...is it just me or does it look close to popping something bigger? That first 6Z GFS ensemble member is bringing out the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hmmm...12z GFS is saying we might have some flurries on Monday...is it just me or does it look close to popping something bigger? First trough looks the same. Cold shot with some mtn upslope flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z GFS through HR 129 doesn't even have the 0c 850 to Florida. Ew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 http://www.examiner....hreat-next-week I did write an update on the potential this morning. If there is something to follow I will update as often as you can. Many thanks. Enjoyable read! T Brick, if its frozen....technically,literally and scientifically...it is a solid.....Trust me! I'm a science teacher. It's thick as a brick That made me laugh out loud.....fantastic. +1 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 the s/w is coming down the pike in the vicinity of the Dakota's at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z GFS through HR 129 doesn't even have the 0c 850 to Florida. Ew. GFS hasn't been as far south with the cold shot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GFS hasn't been as far south with the cold shot though Yeah I know, it's actually been getting better.. but still. The Euro wasn't even as deep last run sadly. I'm waiting for the next frames of this energy coming down to see if it sparks anything before we lose the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Wow, talk about a tight gradient, Augusta 0C @ 850, CLT almost -12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks like it starts a little moisture with cold in place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This is a good run of the GFS for the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This is a good run of the GFS for the 2nd wave Yes we have a coastal developing system around the NC/SC border and possibly without looking at soundings.. snow towards the coasts. Not much, but a much better solution than it's been showing in this time-frame. (: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 First trough looks the same. Cold shot with some mtn upslope flakes Guess that first one was just a little stronger. I thought it might link up and create some sort of cutoff to the south...atleast later on in the week looks a little better for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yes we have a coastal developing system around the NC/SC border and possibly without looking at soundings.. snow towards the coasts. Not much, but a much better solution than it's been showing in this time-frame. (: Just looking at the surface def. snow for many in the eastern corridor...however verbatim sfc temps are probably above freezing for the heart...but you know days away probably will get better blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Imo we need the trough to be set up a little further to the west. Since it is so far to the east, by the time the trough goes negative it is off the coast. Hopefully things will change but right now this is looking like a fish storm to me. Another concern is 2m temps are really shooting up by the time the moisture arrives. Not trying to be a Debbie downer here, this is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I could get a little more excited about the second wave if it had a little more cold air to work with. A retreating surface high off the NE coast is not usually a good thing. Otherwise I like what the GFS is signaling with respects to the s/w dropping down the backside of the trough and trying to possibly close it off in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Not much, but good step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The trend looks good, though. Just need it to go a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The trend looks good, though. Just need it to go a little more west. I'm hoping for a more potent wave in future runs. The Euro and even GGEM may shed more light soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The trend looks good, though. Just need it to go a little more west. Here we go... That would just mean the same amount of snow for someone else in NC....to start, how about a stronger low by about 16mb?? Edit: looks like me and Shawn took the bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GGEM has the same s/w near the Canadian/US border at 120, for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here we go... That would just mean the same amount of snow for someone else in NC....to start, how about a stronger low by about 16mb?? Edit: looks like me and Shawn took the bait. Haha, definitely need a stronger wave that moves just a bit faster and hopefully does come a bit West to really create something worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GGEM has the same s/w near the Canadian/US border at 120, for what it's worth. All I have access to is the E-Wall and The Black and White charts and they haven't updated on my end. Are you using a free service for these maps.. or are yours from last nights run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Haha, definitely need a stronger wave that moves just a bit faster and hopefully does come a bit West to really create something worth much. The west movement shouldn't be too hard to come by given it's the GFS....the faster and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Imo we need the trough to be set up a little further to the west. Since it is so far to the east, by the time the trough goes negative it is off the coast. Hopefully things will change but right now this is looking like a fish storm to me. Another concern is 2m temps are really shooting up by the time the moisture arrives. Not trying to be a Debbie downer here, this is just my opinion. Yep. The western ridge is too far east and the SW doesn't dig enough to pop a storm closer to the coast. Since we're missing one of my favorite Winter storm elements, a strong High to the N or NW, we need the storm to bomb off the coast so it can pull cold into the area. It doesn't look like that is likely to happen at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All I have access to is the E-Wall and The Black and White charts and they haven't updated on my end. Are you using a free service for these maps.. or are yours from last nights run? Also it takes awhile to update but this is a great site for the GGEM maps in color. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All I have access to is the E-Wall and The Black and White charts and they haven't updated on my end. Are you using a free service for these maps.. or are yours from last nights run? I'm using the b/w charts from Environment Canada. The 12Z maps are updated through day 5. Waiting for day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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