Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Early Jan cold and/or snow threat


Cheeznado

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 525
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Typican lazy FFC forecast- I expect that we will have two nights with lows at least in the mid 20s, and Tuesday may struggle to reach 40. get your forecasts from us, FFC bites.

Heck, I went mid 20s in my forecast, in Columbus, next week. If I've noticed anything over the year+ I've been here, its that FFC generally goes with the GFS MOS numbers in the extended (beyond 2 days). Just something I've noticed, that's all.

In regards to next week's cold, at least we're talking about it! Columbus has only seen the freezing mark 3 times this fall/winter, with the last time (outside of this morning maybe) coming December 1st. Either way, the trough looks to dig nicely and the Euro and GFS are in fairly decent agreement with the overall location of it. The strength remains to be seen but it's not looking like it will be as strong or deep as the Euro depicted earlier this week.

What's truly amazing to me is the model's in great agreement with the second piece of energy. Both have it near the Louisiana/Arkansas border next Thursday as they dive it toward Florida. It'll be interesting to see if it's pulled to the northwest over the next few runs. At least there's something to watch for at least the next week! :thumbsup:

http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/2011/12/average-day-with-big-changes-next-week.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely still the threat for the s/w dropping down on the backside of the major trough late next week to have enough room to pop something near the southeast coast. This though looks like an eastern Carolinas/SE Virginia or fish scenario.

At least it will get cold next week for a few days, chilly 26 at my house this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have resigned myself to posting less as I appear to have become a bit of a villain since I bought into to the idea that December was not going to be the cold fest it was last year. But I am curious about this post...Some of the "MAJOR" mets in the biz forecasted a significantly cold December including the southeastern US based on a downward trending "bad index". These were not supported by the purported bad indices in November and it has come to fruition that December is mainly warm across much of our area. I know that I have stated that I punted to mid January back in the early part of December and I am trying to understand based on the implications in this post why that was a bad forecast. Next week will probably finish 2-4 degrees below normal which is a week or so earlier than I imagined what would happen in January but the following week right now does not look so cool right now (it coud change but I don't know right now). The primary teleconnections have not yet changed to support a cold pattern for the bulk of January so there is still the possibility/probability that it could end up normal to above. So for the life of me, I am trying to figure out why this would be a bad forecast? +AO and +NAO trends as well and the ENSO signature have proven so far to do fairly well this winter so I don't understand the shot that appears to be taken in this post.

With my job/family life at the moment I just dont have the time to post as much as I once did and I certainly have not seen much of the back and forth the last few months. But I certainly was way too cold with my monthly/seasonal forecasts. I flipped warm for December back around 11/20 or so when it was obvious December would blowtoch. I also changed my January forecast to warmer about a week ago.

I think January cetainly looks to be colder and have more cold risk around here than December. But with no significant -AO/NAO showing up yet, you have to temper any significant cold expecations. I do think the 2nd half of winter will be better than the first which isnt necessarily a bad thing for the southeast since mid January through early March is usually our climo favored sweet spot for snow/ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6z GFS looks to place a cut off low on the SC coast. Doesn't look to be much precip for interior areas but does depict significant amounts for the coastal sections of NC. Below is only the 174 hour frame it stays put for many frames onward.We'll have to watch this one.

Sounds like the last couple of years where east of 95 has gotten more snow storms than the Triangle. :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With my job/family life at the moment I just dont have the time to post as much as I once did and I certainly have not seen much of the back and forth the last few months. But I certainly was way too cold with my monthly/seasonal forecasts. I flipped warm for December back around 11/20 or so when it was obvious December would blowtoch. I also changed my January forecast to warmer about a week ago.

I think January cetainly looks to be colder and have more cold risk around here than December. But with no significant -AO/NAO showing up yet, you have to temper any significant cold expecations. I do think the 2nd half of winter will be better than the first which isnt necessarily a bad thing for the southeast since mid January through early March is usually our climo favored sweet spot for snow/ice.

I do hope the second half of winter brings more snow chances. The funny thing is we have had most of our snow around here in December and early January the last few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.

This is from NWS in Tallahassee....Was also posted on another forum....Interesting to say the least...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.

This is from NWS in Tallahassee....Was also posted on another forum....Interesting to say the least...

I thought all precipitation was liquid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's be clear. The Bears were right about Dec. Now, moving onto January: The Bears will probably be right again. I'm not saying blowtorch like Dec. Normal temps is my Jan forecast. No, that's not a cop-out. Let's break it down.

Sherman's stratospheric march to the pole continues. Some years it never matters, but let's give it the benefit of the doubt since the MJO/GWO should go into phases more friendly for Southeast cold. However the stratospheric warming is trying to wrap around from Asia into Alaska. That would be great for a +PNA, iff the warming gets down to 500mb. Good stuff if you like cold and sunny northwest flow. Occasional real snow for the ski areas and plenty of snow making. OK the ensembles want to block up Greenland more. However the ensembles open the door for a trough out West. Great -AO for the Northeast while the Southeast ridge holds. Either way the Southeast is missing an ingredient. Don't bank on the AO alone based on last year's record low values. As the Israelis say, don't get caught fighting the last war. Snow lovers might root for the ensembles as the best chance for more southern stream lows ejecting out of Texas. However the marginal cold game would continue, with only slightly better results only because normals are colder.

Bottom line: I'm looking for a variable pattern. Cold next week. Mild the following week or two (more likely two). The West and even Plains may get cold right after Martin Luther King Day. The Southeast will need to wait until the end of Jan. The math, if my forecast is right, points to just normal temperatures on average for the month of Jan. Risk is to the warm side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...