Early Jan cold and/or snow threat

[LithiaWx]

18Z GFS is quite cold, it does eventually pop a storm well off the mid atlantic coast. Looks like the timing is just not right for anyone on the east coast. It looks like the storm could have been a big one if it developed quite a bit farther south and west. On one day some areas of NC look to struggle to make it above freezing even during the day. -10 850's all the way down past Charleston, SC.

[wh_adkins01]

I'm gonna be honest, I am more optimistic about the next 2-3 weeks than I've been in a long time..The models are saying no storm @ the moment but it certainly looks favorable..I would not be at all surprised to see the models converge on a significant storm in the 7-14 day range..Most of you guys are pro's and I admire and respect all of you and enjoy learning from yall..but if anyone would actually "cliff dive" now...I gotta say I'm walking away from the ledge.

[WeatherNC]

I'm gonna be honest, I am more optimistic about the next 2-3 weeks than I've been in a long time..The models are saying no storm @ the moment but it certainly looks favorable..I would not be at all surprised to see the models converge on a significant storm in the 7-14 day range..Most of you guys are pro's and I admire and respect all of you and enjoy learning from yall..but if anyone would actually "cliff dive" now...I gotta say I'm walking away from the ledge.

Agree, but we are probably looking at something around day 10-14 Lots of potential, would rather roll the dice with cold/marginal moisture rather than marginal cold/moisture rich setup, just saying. 18z GFS is mighty cold, 1000-500 thick in the 510 range for PGV and RAH, H5 530'ish. Tues and Weds may not hit 273.15K

Edit: About flipping time winter showed up!

[FoothillsNC]

18Z GFS is quite cold, it does eventually pop a storm well off the mid atlantic coast. Looks like the timing is just not right for anyone on the east coast. It looks like the storm could have been a big one if it developed quite a bit farther south and west. On one day some areas of NC look to struggle to make it above freezing even during the day. -10 850's all the way down past Charleston, SC.

the ecmwf had 32 and less for a high temp I think next Wednesday for just west of CLT to GSP to northeast GA....roughly 85. That happened many times last couple of years, and with comparable 850s, so thats likely, so long as we actually get that 850 temp and nw winds. I recall numerous times the forecast being upper 30s to 40 in my county, when we touched 32 officially...quite a lot in fact. So we'll see if thats the case again.

Ibut if anyone would actually "cliff dive" now...I gotta say I'm walking away from the ledge.

there have been quite a few in here in December who were skeptical, in fact claiming victory practically that the Euro weeklies and such would verify, that Winter was a no-show atleast through mid January, and possibly writing off most all of January. And they did that based on bad indices, and modelology...obviously we would get cold at some point, and its best to not take those things for gospel. The pattern clearly supports a strong amplification, and pure logic alone says that with Canada being so cold, one good amp will pull down a nice slug. This is only the beginning of a very fun time for the south and east I think, esp . once the strat. warming does its work and if we get a block somewhere, which could happen. Even without that though, a system could pop up pretty quickly around just the right spot to nail some areas with big one. This year's pattern supports it (esp. last Spring and now this Fall) and I'll stand by that forecast until March if need be. Even if it's a basically warmer than normal season, it would really surprise me to not see it be a very memorable couple of systems for some areas, possibly record breakers.

[nchighcountrywx]

Robert:

Great insight. Let's hope for the cold and the moisture to tangle before the end of January!

This colder snap last 36 hours has been a blessing for the ski slopes to get the guns cranking and salvage part of this week.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

there have been quite a few in here in December who were skeptical, in fact claiming victory practically that the Euro weeklies and such would verify, that Winter was a no-show atleast through mid January, and possibly writing off most all of January. And they did that based on bad indices, and modelology...obviously we would get cold at some point, and its best to not take those things for gospel. The pattern clearly supports a strong amplification, and pure logic alone says that with Canada being so cold, one good amp will pull down a nice slug. This is only the beginning of a very fun time for the south and east I think, esp . once the strat. warming does its work and if we get a block somewhere, which could happen. Even without that though, a system could pop up pretty quickly around just the right spot to nail some areas with big one. This year's pattern supports it (esp. last Spring and now this Fall) and I'll stand by that forecast until March if need be. Even if it's a basically warmer than normal season, it would really surprise me to not see it be a very memorable couple of systems for some areas, possibly record breakers.

+1....Sure looks good right now. Break out the "long-johns"

[griteater]

would rather roll the dice with cold/marginal moisture rather than marginal cold/moisture rich setup

I'm right with you on that

[sctvman]

Brad Panovich tweets a photo of what temperatures look like in Charlotte next week. Looks like temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday may struggle. Maybe 35 or perhaps less Tuesday, Wednesday upper 30s.

http://twitpic.com/7zzx1l

[MillzPirate]

a few of the 18z gfs members try to pop something off the sc coast but it's whisked away in the flow. Will be interesting to see if the 0z further develops this.

[wh_adkins01]

a few of the 18z gfs members try to pop something off the sc coast but it's whisked away in the flow. Will be interesting to see if the 0z further develops this.

Noticed the same..similar development on previous runs today. Awaiting 0z as well

[pcbjr]

Chilly down here - just like it should be (for a change). Hoping that some blocking develops, but not seeing anything concrete on the models.

Anyway, hope you all north of here get a surprise soon, as you deserve it and I need a road trip!

[Carvers Gap]

the ecmwf had 32 and less for a high temp I think next Wednesday for just west of CLT to GSP to northeast GA....roughly 85. That happened many times last couple of years, and with comparable 850s, so thats likely, so long as we actually get that 850 temp and nw winds. I recall numerous times the forecast being upper 30s to 40 in my county, when we touched 32 officially...quite a lot in fact. So we'll see if thats the case again.

there have been quite a few in here in December who were skeptical, in fact claiming victory practically that the Euro weeklies and such would verify, that Winter was a no-show atleast through mid January, and possibly writing off most all of January. And they did that based on bad indices, and modelology...obviously we would get cold at some point, and its best to not take those things for gospel. The pattern clearly supports a strong amplification, and pure logic alone says that with Canada being so cold, one good amp will pull down a nice slug. This is only the beginning of a very fun time for the south and east I think, esp . once the strat. warming does its work and if we get a block somewhere, which could happen. Even without that though, a system could pop up pretty quickly around just the right spot to nail some areas with big one. This year's pattern supports it (esp. last Spring and now this Fall) and I'll stand by that forecast until March if need be. Even if it's a basically warmer than normal season, it would really surprise me to not see it be a very memorable couple of systems for some areas, possibly record breakers.

Anyone who claims that you haven't been clear about where the pattern may go...hasn't been reading the board. Can the cut-off pattern persist if the artic frontal boundary presses into the continental US or will it just suppress everything to the point it's cold and dry? I kind of like the set up where the artic air mass dropps into South Dakota and the gradient stretches across the southeast from southwest to northeast. If the GFS is to be believed at that time range, seems like it has "overrunning" event written all over it for somebody in the SE. It would be pretty incredible to see that air mass move into the U.S. - if anything just know that Mother Nature still has it in her. Those types of air masses will often "produce" for the TN Valley - much like you illustrated in the other thread that you started. I can remember when I was younger a cold air mass of that nature settling into the plains and Memphis just getting pounded - I was pretty jealous. The gradient across TN(west to east) was insane. I also remember 84-85(though I am pretty restrained in using those dates because they are the Holy Grail of cold around here) where the air mass just hammered NE TN for days on end - also mentioned in another thread. Though I am certainly not invoking those types of numbers for TN, it would be nice to actually see the Valley got below zero - it's been a while. New GFS will be out soon...hope it holds in some form or fashion. Though to be sure, most models are hinting that the pattern may turn much colder. I wouldn't mind seeing that +5 erased from December but that may be a bit much to ask. This may just be one of those winters where it gets truly cold(the winter ends up above normal) but everyone remembers the cold spell. Also, still in the back of my mind is that JB rule of thumb of where it rains the most in fall is where the cold air has a tendency to settle during winter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

FFC has highs near 50 next Tues and Wed, normal for this time of year. When is the cold air supposed to arrive ?

[Psalm 148:8]

Here is some evidence of that SSW taking place....look towards the end where you see the yellow and orange show up.

[Cheeznado]

FFC has highs near 50 next Tues and Wed, normal for this time of year. When is the cold air supposed to arrive ?

Typican lazy FFC forecast- I expect that we will have two nights with lows at least in the mid 20s, and Tuesday may struggle to reach 40. get your forecasts from us, FFC bites.

[Met1985]

Typican lazy FFC forecast- I expect that we will have two nights with lows at least in the mid 20s, and Tuesday may struggle to reach 40. get your forecasts from us, FFC bites.

I second that. I have been getting my forecast here instead of elsewhere. The people on this board seem to no what they are talking about not the locals or any of the other sites like Accu and TWC.

[NCSNOW]

Subtle changes on 0z gfs v/s 18z at hr 54. Not sure if net result will be different

[keithinala]

Typican lazy FFC forecast- I expect that we will have two nights with lows at least in the mid 20s, and Tuesday may struggle to reach 40. get your forecasts from us, FFC bites.

Amen to that!

[VW Builder]

Local radio met Charles Taylor was hinting at light snow possible for next week for our area. Also calling for high temps to struggle to get above 40 for several days. He got several calls on air from people arguing that TWC local on the 8's showd temps in the 50's. It was pretty entertaining to hear him explain the models and "possibilities".

That being said, I feel confident on a pattern change for the better if you are a Winter weather lover.

Edit: Just looked at TWC extended forecast and it seems they are now on board with Taylor temp wise, just not with the precip. Showing cold and dry.

[Jon]

Brad Panovich tweets a photo of what temperatures look like in Charlotte next week. Looks like temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday may struggle. Maybe 35 or perhaps less Tuesday, Wednesday upper 30s.

http://twitpic.com/7zzx1l

Here's the source, if you're interested! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kclt

To change sites, look near the top right corner and view the google map, select the site (KCLT, etc) and click visualize data.

[rduwx]

0z gfs has a nice piece of energy dropping down into the SE around hr 174 or so. I doesn't pick up much gulf moisture but does try to get going off the SC coast at hr 192. If it would go negative tilt a little quicker we would have a nice storm. Just something to keep an eye on.

[POWERSTROKE]

yep we have seen that but nobody wants to talk about it yet. But i don't blame them!!

[Poimen]

cold air is retreating quickly by day 7, but who knows...

[NCSNOW]

0z gfs has a nice piece of energy dropping down into the SE around hr 174 or so. I doesn't pick up much gulf moisture but does try to get going off the SC coast at hr 192. If it would go negative tilt a little quicker we would have a nice storm. Just something to keep an eye on.

Noticed that, then 12 hours later the cold 850's have retreated at warp speed, weird outcome.

[weatherfide]

Truncation messes things up at 192. But it's too early to tell what may come down the pike.

[Mr Bob]

there have been quite a few in here in December who were skeptical, in fact claiming victory practically that the Euro weeklies and such would verify, that Winter was a no-show atleast through mid January, and possibly writing off most all of January. And they did that based on bad indices, and modelology...

I have resigned myself to posting less as I appear to have become a bit of a villain since I bought into to the idea that December was not going to be the cold fest it was last year. But I am curious about this post...Some of the "MAJOR" mets in the biz forecasted a significantly cold December including the southeastern US based on a downward trending "bad index". These were not supported by the purported bad indices in November and it has come to fruition that December is mainly warm across much of our area. I know that I have stated that I punted to mid January back in the early part of December and I am trying to understand based on the implications in this post why that was a bad forecast. Next week will probably finish 2-4 degrees below normal which is a week or so earlier than I imagined what would happen in January but the following week right now does not look so cool right now (it coud change but I don't know right now). The primary teleconnections have not yet changed to support a cold pattern for the bulk of January so there is still the possibility/probability that it could end up normal to above. So for the life of me, I am trying to figure out why this would be a bad forecast? +AO and +NAO trends as well and the ENSO signature have proven so far to do fairly well this winter so I don't understand the shot that appears to be taken in this post.

[griteater]

0z gfs has a nice piece of energy dropping down into the SE around hr 174 or so. I doesn't pick up much gulf moisture but does try to get going off the SC coast at hr 192. If it would go negative tilt a little quicker we would have a nice storm. Just something to keep an eye on.

Bingo, that's the kind of system that would work in this pattern. The key is having it drop into the trough where cold air is already established, rather than it trying to not only generate precip, but also cool the air column as it swings through. Could be anywhere from a mtn upslope clipper to a nice storm as you mention if it slowed down and rounded the base of the trough. We've seen those work before on occasion. After that, it's a brief warm-up, but then back to cool/cold NW flow with a big Alaska ridge at the end of the run and an arctic boundary working down into the plains.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Tonight's GFS still floating around the idea of a mega-cold outbreak towards mid-January...big blocking high sliding up into Eastern Alaska which taps the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere and sends it crashing at least into Canada. There's even a possible Miller-B/CAD event at 384...how many years has it been since we had one of those?

[griteater]

Canadian has a strong cold shot like this morning's Euro...then it moves out and it's cool, but not cold through the rest of the run

[griteater]

Euro not as cold this run with -10 C 850 getting down to N GA / Wilmington, NC. Previous run had it down to Jacksonville.