FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 just for kicks, the GFS does show the beginning of one of those memorable Arctic Outbreaks, that come along only once in a decade or two. Look at its 5H maps and the building closed high over Alaska. That feature forces a 1062mb high and widespread severe cold in most of central and west Canada, to the tune of -30 and -45 degrees F ...Thats cold. I also noticed on the Stratospheric warming panels about 3 seperate waves of warming, don't know if that effects it though. All for show at this point, probably won't be there next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like dry nw flow to me, with periodic re-inforcements. Brief slight warmups between the next cold air mass, nothing special that I can see, other than the quick hitting cold next week. That whole longwave moves bodily out pretty quickly. Like I said earlier anything can dive further west at some point, but that's to be determined later, otherwise "meh" on this. edit ** just saw the huge Alaskan block on the late panel. If thats right, w'e get potentially get a super outbreak. 84-85? Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 84-85? Hmmmm. That would be something to talk about, wouldn't it. I haven't seen ensembles, but a block there would help us (still like them more in eastern Canada or Greenland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is a terrible pattern change if it materializes, for Atlanta. Dry and cold northwest flow dominates through 180 hrs. We are better off in a mild, moist flow, like we recently experienced. I agree, all cold and dry does is take money out of my wallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I agree, all cold and dry does is take money out of my wallet. To bad you live in the south. Its not a cold and snowy place. You don't get Cold and Snow instantly. Even last year the whole month of December was Cold and Dry and the first half of January before we actually got the blockbuster storm. Gotta get cold in here first to even have a chance. Let alone it has not even been cold all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is a terrible pattern change if it materializes, for Atlanta. Dry and cold northwest flow dominates through 180 hrs. We are better off in a mild, moist flow, like we recently experienced. Not at all. If looking for snow and winter precip, at least having cold air in place is significantly better just playing the odds. Now if you live in Texas and desperately need liquid equivalent, the current pattern is better. Personally I just want to see more sunshine, even if cold sun. 84-85? Hmmmm. Due to lack of deep snowcover up North, zilch in the western Upper Midwest and the resulting modification, we could not match 84-85 all else equal. Keep in mind even if the models are correct, not enough snow is forecast between now and then. Let your heart not be troubled though. In Feb 1989 a very mild pattern gave way to cross polar flow. Wait, it is 384; so, maybe let your heart be very cautious. EDIT: See Griteater's 48-hour rule. Applies up to 40N as far west as the Plains. (Excluding High Plains >3,000FT) Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Seems like there are 2 camps on the board with winter weather. Some want the bigger storms and will take their chances with marginal cold air, and others want the cold air and will take their chances with marginal moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 12z Euro is not looking good at all right now. Not nearly as amped as it was not even as amped as last nights run. We'll see where it goes though. Out to 108 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 The new Euro says: Stick a fork in this threat. Shallower and more progressive. Still a cold shot, but meh. That Op Euro from a couple days ago is going to go down as one of that model's worst forecasts in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 @120 euro looks a lot like the GFS in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Not at all. YOu must be rain rich Down here we are in a horrendous drought, that only just saw signs of breaking, only to have the gfs show 3 tepid rain chances in a two week period. We are way more concerned about the lack of fantasy rain, than fantasy snow, since snow rarely happens anyway, but rain used to, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hows the upslope look for Monday? I get one more day off before Easter and I'm loading the kids up and heading for the slopes. Been almost 12 months since I've seen a flake fly and I need a fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Seems like there are 2 camps on the board with winter weather. Some want the bigger storms and will take their chances with marginal cold air, and others want the cold air and will take their chances with marginal moisture. Where's the camp for those people that want at least 3 months of COLD weather (snow or not) just to enjoy being outdoors without wearing scuba gear because it's so humid and hot or coating themselves in a shell of "OFF!" lest they be eaten alive? You'll know it's the right camp when you come to a mass of Scotch/Irish folk like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still a bona fide cold shot on the Euro with -10C 850mb down to Jacksonville next Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hows the upslope look for Monday? I get one more day off before Easter and I'm loading the kids up and heading for the slopes. Been almost 12 months since I've seen a flake fly and I need a fix. Per the Euro just "meh" I'm no expert on that though so when Robert gets back he can probably give a better synopsis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 you know better than trust GFS that far out First we have to get that thing to verify. It may but might not too, who knows. It has some closed high over eastern Russia just nw of Alaska for a lot of the run, as well as the big western Ridge, and then suddenly has a closed high over Alaska on hour 372 and 384. I will say we usually get "stuff to talk about " when a ridge closes there...just like Greenland. fun and games, later part of Jan?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 For those that like cool-cold and dry the Euro is your cup o' tea- looks like the Rockies ridge will be there a spell, but a little too far east to give much of a precip threat. On the 198 hour Euro no sign of blocking either in Greenland or in Alaska. So deadly dull weather looks to be the scenario for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 For those that like cool-cold and dry the Euro is your cup o' tea- looks like the Rockies ridge will be there a spell, but a little too far east to give much of a precip threat. On the 198 hour Euro no sign of blocking either in Greenland or in Alaska. So deadly dull weather looks to be the scenario for a while. Except that does not fit the pattern this year. No need in even trying to track a fantasy storm at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 [/b] Except that does not fit the pattern this year. No need in even trying to track a fantasy storm at this range. Was just about to mention this. I guess it's possible to completely shut off the possibilities, but it's also just as likely we have something to track at some point over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well it looks like we are gonna get the cold well wanted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 [/b] Except that does not fit the pattern this year. No need in even trying to track a fantasy storm at this range. Isn't that because of how the pattern is set up right now though? With that huge ridge isn't it just science that anything is going to get pretty much squashed to our south? I'm personally not ruling out the possibility of some fun and games when the pattern is changing but what the Euro shows is pretty realistic as far as not getting any real moisture. Euro doesn't keep the cold around too long by 222 we're back to more of an average to above average temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 For those that like cool-cold and dry the Euro is your cup o' tea- looks like the Rockies ridge will be there a spell, but a little too far east to give much of a precip threat. On the 198 hour Euro no sign of blocking either in Greenland or in Alaska. So deadly dull weather looks to be the scenario for a while. So this may be a good sign we may have something to track in the next two or three weeks! We are talking about the EURO right? The one that showed a massive snow storm yesterday!!! I figure it could be just as wrong today as it was yesterday, Although i'm sure it will be correct being it's DRY and COLD now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It cracks me up how when the euro showed the storm yesterday it was "fantasy" but now that it doesn't show it 2 runs later then its definitely off the table. Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still thinking coastal NC/VA stand the best chance for a surprise the next couple weeks. Think any s/w that roll through the pattern during this time have a chance of popping something ala Jan 20, 2009, the inauguration day surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It cracks me up how when the euro showed the storm yesterday it was "fantasy" but now that it doesn't show it 2 runs later then its definitely off the table. Lol... Haha true, but damn usually you have at least one of the models showing something. Euro was the only one, and now it's folded. Just seems a little too good to be true for it to pop back up tonight but it could that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still thinking coastal NC/VA stand the best chance for a surprise the next couple weeks. Think any s/w that roll through the pattern during this time have a chance of popping something ala Jan 20, 2009, the inauguration day surprise. I agree, it's not completely dead for some areas, maybe the coastal NE, I don't think NC has a chance, it would have to dig even further S and come W to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GSP afternoon long term: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT 235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OVER EASTERN CANADA...LEAVING THE FRONT WEAKLY FORCED AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE CWA WILL SPEND MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...NORTHWEST WINDS...AND CAA WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH MOST AREAS CHANGING OVER THE SN BY MIDNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A DEEP H5 TROF WILL NOT CROSS THE SPINE OF THE MTNS UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING LATE MONDAY. I WILL INDICATE -SN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. QPF REMAINS LIMITED...BUT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD LIKELY EXCEED CLIMO VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THE DURATION...COLD THICKNESSES...AND UPPER FORCING MAKES THE PERIOD BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING VERY INTERESTING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS EVENT THROUGH FUTURE RUNS. TEMPS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON TUESDAY...THE CAA SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS LIKELY BETWEEN -12 TO -15 ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM FREEZING IN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L40S EAST OF I-85. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Isn't that because of how the pattern is set up right now though? With that huge ridge isn't it just science that anything is going to get pretty much squashed to our south? I'm personally not ruling out the possibility of some fun and games when the pattern is changing but what the Euro shows is pretty realistic as far as not getting any real moisture. Euro doesn't keep the cold around too long by 222 we're back to more of an average to above average temp. This year I'd rather have a split flow with a super amped southern stream and take my chance with the cold finding the south a few times even without the blocking. I guess it is all relative to your back yard, lol. I absolutely love cold, the more bitter the better. I loved Feb. two years ago..very cold ...and I was willing to pay with dry, and hope for some wet, as I was rain sated at the time. Now, I'd rather have the wet, and hope for the cold. But if the pattern turns I'll be happy for three 6 degree days followed by a gom low moving into Fla. while the temps moderate to 25 And if I have to deal with dry cold, give me below 0. There is always, always a chance no matter the pattern, albeit usually not a very good one, when it is bone dry. Last year while all my se friends were frolicking in their 5 or 6 or 8 inches, I was dealing with .1, or less, of precip. I was cold enough to get snow every time, just wasn't any moisture. I'm ready to gamble the other way now. Give me two inches into 33. Heck, it might drop a degree, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Raleigh Disco... STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUMMETING MORE THAN 80 METERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS OF JUST 46-54 SUNDAY DESPITE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES... WITH BRISK/GUSTY WNW WINDS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH NC MONDAY NIGHT INTRODUCING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE TRUE POLAR-SOURCE AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOWS OF 26-30... NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINTER TEMPS WILL BE UPON US IN FULL FORCE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AND A FAST NNW MID LEVEL FLOW... CLOUDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS OF 39-44 BOTH DAYS WITH A LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLIPPER WAVES DROPPING SSE INTO THE TROUGH BASE... BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE OVERALL WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH ANY SUCH WAVE. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still thinking coastal NC/VA stand the best chance for a surprise the next couple weeks. Think any s/w that roll through the pattern during this time have a chance of popping something ala Jan 20, 2009, the inauguration day surprise. the ecmwf has a weak wave dropping down around 192 hours, its moisture starved but does show a little development right along the beach. There will be systems to watch in the flow, even though it looks boring and dry now, I'm pretty sure a clipper type system or 2 will be right behind the initial cold wave, and will probably show up soon on the runs. But since we're entering a new flow pattern, atleast temporarily, its even extra hard to time them, and the odds are they won't amount to much, but anythings possible in this wild pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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