Early Jan cold and/or snow threat

[burgertime]

Man it's called Dr. No for a reason, Euro crushing the dreams. The one good thing is that they all agree it's going to get cold and that's the first step. Anyone see the Euro Ens?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Overall, the Euro looks more likely to pan out than the GFS at this time. The GFS has a fairly sharp trough over the Rockies which usually translates to a deeper trough than its currently showing. The Euro also has support from the Ukie and CMC so I put more emphasis on those in my forecast this morning. Unfortunately for our North Carolina peeps outside of the mountains, the snow looks to have teased us. That's not to say the low can't move back west, which it may, but with the ridge over the Rockies it'll likely be out to sea. For lows to run up the coast I like the ridge axis to be over Washington and Oregon. However, I am more interested in the end of next week. That second piece of energy will be fun watch! The Euro brings it down over Alabama. The GFS has it amplifying the trough which gives us all a nice cold snap. Either way, it'll be cold for the East Coast next week! Now let's get a closed low to pop in Alabama or Georgia and we'll be in business

http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/2011/12/average-day-with-big-changes-next-week.html

[FoothillsNC]

Overall, the Euro looks more likely to pan out than the GFS at this time. The GFS has a fairly sharp trough over the Rockies which usually translates to a deeper trough than its currently showing. The Euro also has support from the Ukie and CMC so I put more emphasis on those in my forecast this morning. Unfortunately for our North Carolina peeps outside of the mountains, the snow looks to have teased us. That's not to say the low can't move back west, which it may, but with the ridge over the Rockies it'll likely be out to sea. For lows to run up the coast I like the ridge axis to be over Washington and Oregon. However, I am more interested in the end of next week. That second piece of energy will be fun watch! The Euro brings it down over Alabama. The GFS has it amplifying the trough which gives us all a nice cold snap. Either way, it'll be cold for the East Coast next week! Now let's get a closed low to pop in Alabama or Georgia and we'll be in business

http://davidwarrenre...-next-week.html

Yes it looks colder atleast, and there are other things to watch in the flow. Obviously its going to be a tough time for models, every day a new system could appear in the flow and as long as we have some western ridging, we'll have to be on guard for anything to develop downstream. One of these waves could really dig, and not have but a couple days advanced notice on it. Also I think I saw some eastern Greenland and North Pole ridging which is good to displace cold air south.

[NavarreDon]

GSP overnight long term.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY STARTS OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE

FORECAST UNDER A FLAT RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THE

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 10

DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH AND SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF

THE EAST COAST SUNDAY CLOUDINESS BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A SIGNIFICANT

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY

WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES OR MORE.

IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THE CANADIAN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

THE CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. A

SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO START THE WEEK WITH ALL MODELS

SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND MONDAY

AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A DEEP TROUGH WITH FRONTAL

PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY FALLING THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY AND

THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH REACHING OUR AREA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE EC

HAS A LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW EVENT FROM MID DAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE

TUESDAY. THIS BIG TROUGH ON THE EC MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY

NIGHT. SEEMS COLD WEATHER IS ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE

GFS IS NOT GOING ALONG WITH IT.

[deltadog03]

EURO is certainly going to win the pattern war, but I have my doubts anyone, outside of the mountains, will see any snow. (at least the first piece of energy) That 2nd piece of energy that rotates down, could be something to keep your eyes on. The prollem is that the Ridge is centered too far EAST (ie its over me, it needs to be over the EPAC/Along W Coast) With that said, it will certainly get chilly/cold down there, but will not last long and right now, I just don't see much of a snow threat. Sorry guys and gals...I am rooting yall on......

Chris

[Cold Rain]

I'd be fine with the Euro position of the ridge access if it gets pumped up enough. That would allow the SW to dig far enough south. But a progressive, moderately steep ridge over the Rockies isn't probably going to get it done...that, I agree with.

[franklin NCwx]

EURO is certainly going to win the pattern war, but I have my doubts anyone, outside of the mountains, will see any snow. (at least the first piece of energy) That 2nd piece of energy that rotates down, could be something to keep your eyes on. The prollem is that the Ridge is centered too far EAST (ie its over me, it needs to be over the EPAC/Along W Coast) With that said, it will certainly get chilly/cold down there, but will not last long and right now, I just don't see much of a snow threat. Sorry guys and gals...I am rooting yall on......

Chris

Even the better/deeper runs of the euro have been too far east for my liking. Would like to see the whole setup shift west some. Yesterdays 12z cmc was not too bad.

[DixieBlizzard]

EURO is certainly going to win the pattern war, but I have my doubts anyone, outside of the mountains, will see any snow. (at least the first piece of energy) That 2nd piece of energy that rotates down, could be something to keep your eyes on. The prollem is that the Ridge is centered too far EAST (ie its over me, it needs to be over the EPAC/Along W Coast) With that said, it will certainly get chilly/cold down there, but will not last long and right now, I just don't see much of a snow threat. Sorry guys and gals...I am rooting yall on......

Chris

Thanks Chris. What's your total snowfall so far?

That ridge out west reminds me of a couple of years ago when it was too far East but finally retrograded. Everything seems to happen at a slower pace this year pattern change-wise.

[Shawn]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

858 AM EST WED DEC 28 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 01 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 04 2012

OUR MID MORNING UPDATE IS FOLLOWING THE SAME GENERAL PLAN AS

YESTERDAY. WE ACCEPT HPC CONTINUITY DAYS 3-4....BLEND IT WITH 50%

ECENS MEAN BY DAY 5...AND GO TO FULL STRENGTH ECENS MEAN BY WED

DAY 7. THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN WAS CHOSEN FOR ITS RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY MON DAY 5 AND BEYOND. RECENT RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAR W TO AMPLIFY THE

DEEPENING TROF IN THE ERN CONUS. HOWEVER ..THE LAST TWO ECENS

MEANS (FROM 12Z/27 AND 00Z/28) ARE QUITE COMPATIBLE IN SHOWING THE

MAIN 500MB TROF AXIS JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TUE DAY 6.

THIS IS QUITE A BIT E OF WHERE YESTERDAYS 12Z/27 ECMWF HAD THE

MAIN VORT ENERGY (AR) FOR TUE DAY 7. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE

FLATTENING THE MEAN RIDGE UPSTREAM MON/TUE...ALLOWING ENOUGH

WESTERLY FLOW THRU THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO DISCOURAGE ANY ENERGY

IN THE DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM DIGGING AS FAR W AS SHOWN BY THE

12Z/27 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL

BROADER/FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN TROF FROM DAY 5 ONWARD.A SOMEWHAT

CONDENSED VERSION THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

THRU DAY 5...INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFIED

TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GREAT LAKES/EAST WITH

RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. MOST

OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS PATTERN...OUTSIDE THE 00Z GFS WHICH

WAS BROAD AND FLAT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH DESPITE ITS AMPLIFIED

RIDGE UPSTREAM. SINCE THERE IS GOOD GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...WE

USED A 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR THE PRESSURES INTO LATE

MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...THE 00Z ECMWF BROUGHT A STRONG VORTICITY

LOBE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WESTERN CANADA THEN TURNED

IT SE INTO THE PLAINS. SINCE IT TENDS TO BE STRONG WITH SYSTEMS

ALOFT BEYOND 120 HOURS...WE USED 50% OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN SOLUTION DAYS 6-7 TO TONE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOWN

NEXT TUE/WED.

[FoothillsNC]

The GFS at 72 hours seems to be splitting and digging the western s/w more than it was. Doubt that it will make much difference, but it could be a trend toward a deeper trough (esp. for that model).

[FoothillsNC]

It still won't be enough, but it does have more amplitude, and looks like a big cold outbreak coming.

[Shawn]

It still won't be enough, but it does have more amplitude, and looks like a big cold outbreak coming.

I still like the idea of a cutoff. The Euro may very well go back to it. The GFS is starting (although slowly) to show a deeper trough of sorts to get some cold air.

[NavarreDon]

Thanks for the pbp everyone.

[WeatherNC]

12z @ 102 vs 0z @ 114

[packbacker]

It still won't be enough, but it does have more amplitude, and looks like a big cold outbreak coming.

Yeah, it seemed to be digging SE through about hr 90 and then stopped the S motion. It seems at hour 120 the ridge is OK, but I guess if it was east a 100 or so miles that would be better.

[FoothillsNC]

It still consolidates everything around the Lakes, and we're left with a cold front (very tightly packed to the north) . so that even the Deep south doesn't really get that cold, say deeper into La, Ms, Al Ga but just north of there is a very tight gradient and much colder. Needless to say nowhere near a storm here.

[LithiaWx]

I still like the idea of a cutoff. The Euro may very well go back to it. The GFS is starting (although slowly) to show a deeper trough of sorts to get some cold air.

I hope we get a cutoff too but with no models showing a cutoff scenario I think it's pretty unlikely. Not impossible but pretty unlikely.

[burgertime]

It still consolidates everything around the Lakes, and we're left with a cold front (very tightly packed to the north) . so that even the Deep south doesn't really get that cold, say deeper into La, Ms, Al Ga but just north of there is a very tight gradient and much colder. Needless to say nowhere near a storm here.

@141 it's starting to get pretty durn cold even down into very southern sections.

[burgertime]

I hope we get a cutoff too but with no models showing a cutoff scenario I think it's pretty unlikely. Not impossible but pretty unlikely.

Yep looks like this one might be toast unless the Euro sees something the GFS is missing...but given the 00z run that's probably not likely....although the GFS slowly coming to the Euro is a good sign this run.

[eyewall]

I really wish I could extend my trip to northern VT for the rest of the winter then my problems would be solved in terms of the weather . With that said this peaks my interest. If not a snow event perhaps we are starting to see hints of a longer term pattern shift.

[burgertime]

I really wish I could extend my trip to northern VT for the rest of the winter then my problems would be solved in terms of the weather . With that said this peaks my interest. If not a snow event perhaps we are starting to see hints of a longer term pattern shift.

Looks like it, and if the GFS is correct we will have our first sub freezing day on Wed....now just to get some moisture with it dammit.

[weatherfide]

That is a terrible pattern change if it materializes, for Atlanta. Dry and cold northwest flow dominates through 180 hrs. We are better off in a mild, moist flow, like we recently experienced.

[FoothillsNC]

Looks like dry nw flow to me, with periodic re-inforcements. Brief slight warmups between the next cold air mass, nothing special that I can see, other than the quick hitting cold next week. That whole longwave moves bodily out pretty quickly. Like I said earlier anything can dive further west at some point, but that's to be determined later, otherwise "meh" on this.

edit ** just saw the huge Alaskan block on the late panel. If thats right, w'e get potentially get a super outbreak.

[ams30721us]

That is a terrible pattern change if it materializes, for Atlanta. Dry and cold northwest flow dominates through 180 hrs. We are better off in a mild, moist flow, like we recently experienced.

Not at all.

[LithiaWx]

Looks like dry nw flow to me, with periodic re-inforcements. Brief slight warmups between the next cold air mass, nothing special that I can see, other than the quick hitting cold next week. That whole longwave moves bodily out pretty quickly. Like I said earlier anything can dive further west at some point, but that's to be determined later, otherwise "meh" on this.

edit ** just saw the huge Alaskan block on the late panel. If thats right, w'e get potentially get a super outbreak.

of cold? or cold and snow?

[LithiaWx]

I don't see a storm on the Canadian or UKMET. Maps are kinda crummy but a storm there is not, they both show a decent trough though.

[FoothillsNC]

of cold? or cold and snow?

you know better than trust GFS that far out First we have to get that thing to verify. It may but might not too, who knows. It has some closed high over eastern Russia just nw of Alaska for a lot of the run, as well as the big western Ridge, and then suddenly has a closed high over Alaska on hour 372 and 384. I will say we usually get "stuff to talk about " when a ridge closes there...just like Greenland.

[griteater]

That was the old UKMet Marietta, but the new one is essentially the same. Cold shot, but a progressive flow rather than deep amplification.

[griteater]

The histerical part of all of this is HPC jumping on board yesterday with the S word in the south....so out of character for them given the model discrepancies

[LithiaWx]

That was the old UKMet Marietta, but the new one is essentially the same. Cold shot, but a progressive flow rather than deep amplification.

I see that now, thanks, I'll remove it.