WeatherNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12/27 0Z model predications for the PNA vs 12/27 12z model predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think the 18z shows the potential that the pattern holds depending on how each piece of energy is left separated or phased. The way those troughs drop into the East, it doesn't take much imagination to picture a storm riding out of the GOM on one of those frontal boundaries. I like the fact the models are slowly showing some high latitude blocking , sometimes over the NP, sometimes Scandinavia, sometimes Alaska , sometimes eastern Greenland, and even once was eastern Canada. Needless to say, the pattern this Fall and early Winter so far is one that is conducive to quick and strong longitudinal flow/deep trof/cutoffs. Seems every so often one forms somewhere in the Southern half of the country, lately it was the Southwest but the Southeast or lower Miss. Valley or Texas is no stranger. I have no idea why, but that looks to continue, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the extreme solution of ECMWF be close to accurate. Be looking for signs that the longwave troughs can split somewhere in the Plains or Rockies, as thats been the hallmark. In this case, this run splits one s/w around the Lakes, and the main one drops toward eastern Texas or La region then its allowed to fall behind the northern stream, which might create a cutoff. Then a couple days later a new s/w phases in and helps pull it into the Northeast and eastern Canada, walloping a huge area. Around southern Alaska, a deep surface low helps pump the western ridge initially, which causes the sudden cascade. I recall the November event doing about the same thing, but in that case the GFS and CMC was onto first, then eCMWF joined, then others lost it only to find it again, with a 5 contour cutoff over MEM area. Fascinating pattern if your'e a weather lover, despite the warmth lately. One major amplification like ECMWF and we can indeed score a major Winter storm pretty quickly, but that might actually be further west, or more northeast for the Midatlantic (or even just a cold frontal passage). BTW here's the 384 hour GFS from Dec 22nd...it could be the usual antics of GFS at that time frame and the old adage 'even a broke clock is right twice a day'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol snow on the 18z in the LR has 12 inches for most of WNC....now that is a fantasy storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol snow on the 18z in the LR has 12 inches for most of WNC....now that is a fantasy storm! We're due for a 12" incher. We've been nickeled and dimed a lot last few years, some good ones but no really big ones lately. All it takes is one really well placed deep, slow moving storm to do it. Shift the Euro a few miles southwest, and we'd be hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I like the fact the models are slowly showing some high latitude blocking , sometimes over the NP, sometimes Scandinavia, sometimes Alaska , sometimes eastern Greenland, and even once was eastern Canada. Needless to say, the pattern this Fall and early Winter so far is one that is conducive to quick and strong longitudinal flow/deep trof/cutoffs. Seems every so often one forms somewhere in the Southern half of the country, lately it was the Southwest but the Southeast or lower Miss. Valley or Texas is no stranger. I have no idea why, but that looks to continue, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the extreme solution of ECMWF be close to accurate. Be looking for signs that the longwave troughs can split somewhere in the Plains or Rockies, as thats been the hallmark. In this case, this run splits one s/w around the Lakes, and the main one drops toward eastern Texas or La region then its allowed to fall behind the northern stream, which might create a cutoff. Then a couple days later a new s/w phases in and helps pull it into the Northeast and eastern Canada, walloping a huge area. Around southern Alaska, a deep surface low helps pump the western ridge initially, which causes the sudden cascade. I recall the November event doing about the same thing, but in that case the GFS and CMC was onto first, then eCMWF joined, then others lost it only to find it again, with a 5 contour cutoff over MEM area. Fascinating pattern if your'e a weather lover, despite the warmth lately. One major amplification like ECMWF and we can indeed score a major Winter storm pretty quickly, but that might actually be further west, or more northeast for the Midatlantic (or even just a cold frontal passage). BTW here's the 384 hour GFS from Dec 22nd...it could be the usual antics of GFS at that time frame and the old adage 'even a broke clock is right twice a day'. I made note of that when it came out...the gfs did this last year it caught on early and then lost a couple storms till the 5 day range. Posted by oconeexman on 22 December 2011 - 11:36 PM in Southeastern States Jan 4-5th looks like a credible threat for winter wx in our area. At least we now have a fantasy land storm to start watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 We're due for a 12" incher. We've been nickeled and dimed a lot last few years, some good ones but no really big ones lately. All it takes is one really well placed deep, slow moving storm to do it. Shift the Euro a few miles southwest, and we'd be hit hard. Yea it's been awhile. I really want to stay up late tonight and catch the 00z GFS and Euro but I need sleep for work since I've been out since last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 We're due for a 12" incher. We've been nickeled and dimed a lot last few years, some good ones but no really big ones lately. All it takes is one really well placed deep, slow moving storm to do it. Shift the Euro a few miles southwest, and we'd be hit hard. If you're due for a 12" incher then Atlanta is definitely due for a 6" incher. It's been nearly 30 years since Atlanta has had a 6 inch snowstorm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Been since 1983 - we're due a 1 incher here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GvlleSC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 We could use a little snow in Greenville, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If you're due for a 12" incher then Atlanta is definitely due for a 6" incher. It's been nearly 30 years since Atlanta has had a 6 inch snowstorm ! It's too bad the airport is on the the southside of town, if it was on the northside like where I live the snowfall totals they record would be quite a few inches higher. The southside is always getting screwed over especially in those rain to snow setups where the rain/snow line has to push from north to south since I-20 tends to setup like a battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I made note of that when it came out...the gfs did this last year it caught on early and then lost a couple storms till the 5 day range. Posted by oconeexman on 22 December 2011 - 11:36 PM in Southeastern States Jan 4-5th looks like a credible threat for winter wx in our area. At least we now have a fantasy land storm to start watching! Yeah, I remember you posting that. It's my feelings as well that we'll see GFS bring it back into focus around 120 hrs, but just not as amplified or as deep as the 12z ECMWF. The track is what the models I think will be waffling with the most once we get into the 3-5 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol snow on the 18z in the LR has 12 inches for most of WNC....now that is a fantasy storm! . Oh man that reminds me of dec 18 2009 lol now that was a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If you're due for a 12" incher then Atlanta is definitely due for a 6" incher. It's been nearly 30 years since Atlanta has had a 6 inch snowstorm ! Knoxville hasn't had a 12" since 1993 and the strange thing is before then it had plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Knoxville hasn't had a 12" since 1993 and the strange thing is before then it had plenty. Lived in Knoxville during the "Storm of the Century." Most incredible weather event I've ever lived through - period. I have been in tornadoes, flooding, drought, dust storms, etc. It was awesome and I was at UT - perfect age to be able to enjoy that kind of event. Got on a plane two weeks later and headed to Costa Rica. It was like 40 when I got on the plane and when I got off in CR it was 95. Lost 5 lbs before I could get in the taxi. Anyway, I grew up in Knoxville during the 70s - spoiled me. I didn't know that I was living through some of the great winters of the past fifty years. I thought it was normal. But yes, Knoxville is in a humongous snow drought minus last year. Hopefully it's just a cycle. Seems to me that KTRI has Knoxville's climate from two decades ago. I think it has the most to do w/ the fact that their have been fewer storms leaving the GOM and hitting the slot for us. Knoxville really depends on storms developing on the Louisiana panhandle and riding through the Piedmont w/ a high in place to our north. What is surprising to me is that the TN Valley has not had an ice storm in quite some time. The valley traps cold air so often - just kind of hard to believe that hasn't happened since the early 80s. TIFWIW, I do believe we are entering the SLP/GOM cycle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z GFS is stronger with the closed low south of Alaska and a little sharper with the ridge building in far western Canada thru 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 00z GFS is stronger with the closed low south of Alaska and a little sharper with the ridge building in far western Canada thru 114 Thats a good sign. Maybe coming together with the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's also moved the Alaska vortex west into a better position for strong +PNA ridging (along the western Alaskan border). May not dig the initial wave deep enough into the SE, but this looks better, especially for later down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Lol.. gfs went from a flat flow to going nuts with the western ridge. No storm as the trough is too far east and does not dig as far south as the euro. Looks cold tho out to 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS headed in the correct direction, still nothing like the Euro, but colder by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Massive +PNA ridge at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS is maybe a step toward ECMWF , still pretty far off. It digs late (ohio valley) and not as strong a PNA but a little more than it had. I think its also using a different s/w for the digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It does pop a low and heads north, just 200 miles east of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Definitely a trend toward the Euro with the ridge but I'd like to see that trough come back further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At 120 the cmc is still amped. Ridge axis farther west than gfs and trough is deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At 120 the cmc is still amped. Ridge axis farther west than gfs and trough is deeper. where are you getting it at? I don't see it out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 where are you getting it at? I don't see it out yet. Environment Canada. Only the crappy black and white charts out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 where are you getting it at? I don't see it out yet. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif It does look similar to the 12Z Euro, at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 UKMet has a frontal passage with a cold shot through 144. Not strong with the ridging in W Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif It does look similar to the 12Z Euro, at first glance. But at 144 it is not as deep as previous run/Euro. No southern cut-off. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 But at 144 it is not as deep as previous run/Euro. No southern cut-off. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif That's the old run. 144 should be 0z ties. That has 0z Monday time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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