packbacker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Seems like a pretty good wintery run of the GFS in the long range...hopefully it's not drunk! Almost appears to setup some blocking in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I can already tell 2012 will be a good year...the first GFS run shows promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 'packbacker' Seems like a pretty good wintery run of the GFS in the long range...hopefully it's not drunk! Almost appears to setup some blocking in the long run. Best I've seen by far. Gets the ball really rolling with a Miller Bish/apps runnerday 9-10 then drives the cold down the rest of the run. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Thanks, your probably in the know more than me. I did a double take trying to discern the if the -18 was the shade beside it as well as retrace the shades starting with the first blue color 0 850's and working my way backwards toward the color in NW NC. Unfortunately they are packed so tight that method doesn't work to well with this spell/outbreak. Yeah, wasn't trying to nitpick, I was just keying on some of the comparison 850 numbers that Foothills threw out from last year's cold outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 GFS looks pretty good all be it about 260hrs out for one storm and did anyone see the frames from hr300 till the end of the run wow would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that is -16 west of I-77 Yeah it is...was looking at the soundings for Charlotte, Hickory and Asheville...all 3 were between -16 and -16.5 (850mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This may bring a few flurries to ne Ga , northern SC and part of the western piedmont and foothills of NC, not to mention the excellent upslope snow event this is going to be in all the mountain Chain. the NAM is added a little more moisture for late monday night early tuesday morn...may have to be on flurry watch for sure! Dead on to what Robert has been saying for 2 days now...dang genius!! Yep, Foothills was the first to mention the flurry possibility east of the mtns. We have a fairly strong 500mb vort max that is gaining strength as it dives into the base of the longwave trough, with a good 500mb wind field accompanying the vort max. The amount of moisture is going to be very limited, but the incoming air mass will be quite cold and may be able to squeeze out a few flurries anywhere northeast of a line from Chattanooga to Columbia to Myrtle Beach (north of the track of the 500mb vort max). I'm on board with the HI-RES NMM's radar simulation of the flurries/stray snow showers in the eastern 1/2 of TN, the mtn upslope snow, and the stray flurries east of the mtns, Mon aftn / evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 A good indicator of a bona fide cold air mass here is single digit dewpoints. GFS output is showing dewpoints around 0 degrees Tuesday afternoon into Wed morning. A little test here to see which one of these is most accurate with the 72 hour forecast... Forecasted High Temp on Tues for Charlotte: NAM Model Output: 33 NAM MOS (MET): 40 GFS Model Output: 32 GFS MOS (MAV): 36 GFS MOS (MEX): 36 NWS: mid-30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Morning folks, Hope everyone was safe last night! Here is the short term from GSP: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AT 2 AM EST SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY AN SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ROBUST NW FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...WITH SNOW AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN COLDER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN SNOW LEVELS FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA... PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE AND WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...ENDING THE SNOW EVENT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF COLD ADVECTION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WIL RUN 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE COLDER NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 NWS Blacksburg bumped the snow chances for the northern foothills of NC from scattered flurries to snow showers 20% chance now. Maybe I have a shot at a dusting if the wind is not too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yep, some guidance drops dew points for clt below 0 at times with this outbreak. Pure arctic air. A good indicator of a bona fide cold air mass here is single digit dewpoints. GFS output is showing dewpoints around 0 degrees Tuesday afternoon into Wed morning. A little test here to see which one of these is most accurate with the 72 hour forecast... Forecasted High Temp on Tues for Charlotte: NAM Model Output: 33 NAM MOS (MET): 40 GFS Model Output: 32 GFS MOS (MAV): 36 GFS MOS (MEX): 36 NWS: mid-30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 06z GFS, and 12z NAM, valid at 12z Tue: the 12z NAM has the surface freezing line from central NC down to Athens and back toward Huntsville, and upper 20's in the western piedmont/foothills and northern GA and northern Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 CAE... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES A NW FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN CANADA...WHICH IS A COLD DRY FLOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER/COLD AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER OFFSHORE THE NE US COAST. GFS/ECMWF BUILD THE HIGH CENTER INTO OUR REGION BY TUE NT/WED...PROVIDING APPEARANCES OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS EARLY WED MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE MIN TEMPS TRENDING DOWN WITH LATEST RUN. TEMPS EARLY WED MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH MAY SWING BY TO OUR NE THU...INCREASING THE WIND AND POSSIBLY ADDING SOME CLOUDS...SO MIN TEMPS NOT AS COOL. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE CONUS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS FRI/SAT. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN APPROACHING FRONT WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Ok some tell me if I am correct here. Looking at 48 hr accum. Precip. On the 12z Nam. It looks like the Mnts. could get .15 to .30 of moisture. I know the ratio is going to go way up but, if you were to use 15-1. as an average. Would we be looking at 2-5" depending on elevation? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 06z GFS, and 12z NAM, valid at 12z Tue: the 12z NAM has the surface freezing line from central NC down to Athens and back toward Huntsville, and upper 20's in the western piedmont/foothills and northern GA and northern Upstate. Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we only top out at 28 in Knoxville. Ok some tell me if I am correct here. Looking at 48 hr accum. Precip. On the 12z Nam. It looks like the Mnts. could get .15 to .30 of moisture. I know the ratio is going to go way up but, if you were to use 15-1. as an average. Would we be looking at 2-5" depending on elevation? Thanks in advance. It'll probably be around 10-15 degrees above 6000', so I'd say 2-5" isn't out of the question and is probably likely. Leconte at 6500' got 4.5" from the last system. With the strong winds and orographic precip, I wouldn't be surprised if totals around 6" happened at the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy New Year! Good news regarding the AO. Past GFS model runs are trending it negative. HOPEFULLY it will keep trending it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Meh. Just can't get very excited by this short lived cold shot. By Thursday I will be back to normal temps and well above going into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 12z GFS brings -15 to Columbia and still has -16 in upper SC to western NC piedmont on Tuesday. Very impressive cold advection from Monday through Tuesday for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Canadian RGEM is farther south with the vort max and cold compared to the GFS and NAM. It has 850 -16C just south of Atlanta. HIRES-NMM is also farther south with the vort max like the RGEM, but not quite as cold...it has -15C just north of ATL. You can see the scattered snow shower look east of the mtns on the HIRES NMM 700mb RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This simulated radar loop is a good look for how the snow should break out in E KY, SW VA, E TN, W NC with the vort max diving in from the NW (last 4 frames of the loop - goes through 7PM Mon) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 GSP afternoon AFD: MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BLUSTERY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS. DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE COLD AIR MASS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT MOST PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40-45 RANGE. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS...AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE BY 00Z TUESDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...A BLUSTERY AND COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS NC MTN SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSSSECTIONS DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW...AND MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO A VERY COLD -20 DEG C. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WEST FACING SLOPES. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING ARE SLATED TO BE ABT 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER ELEVATION NC MTN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES NEARING TEN BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This simulated radar loop is a good look for how the snow should break out in E KY, SW VA, E TN, W NC with the vort max diving in from the NW (last 4 frames of the loop - goes through 7PM Mon) http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/jloop.html Looks like the higher elevations (above 2000') in East TN are favored for snow there. I'm not sure much will make it to the valley but the cumberland plateau might get an inch, and so will the ridge on I75 near LaFollette. I'd go with 4-6" above 6000' definitely. Pity I have plans on Monday or I'd hike up to Leconte again for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 An advisory was just issued...looking for around 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 An advisory was just issued...looking for around 2" here. Have fun looking at the forecast for Mt. Leconte: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.65419280235144&lon=-83.4367847442627&site=rnk&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 man I wish that low would pop 100 miles further west.... the 18z GFS is pretty close to snowfall for the beaches of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Canadian RGEM is farther south with the vort max and cold compared to the GFS and NAM. It has 850 -16C just south of Atlanta. HIRES-NMM is also farther south with the vort max like the RGEM, but not quite as cold...it has -15C just north of ATL. You can see the scattered snow shower look east of the mtns on the HIRES NMM 700mb RH. I like the looks of that blob of moisture in the golden corner of SC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Winter Weather Adv. & Wind Chill Adv. Posted throughout the Mnts. of TN & WNC. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm under a WWA for 1-2 inches and 2-4 inches for areas above 2500. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 man I wish that low would pop 100 miles further west.... the 18z GFS is pretty close to snowfall for the beaches of NC yeah thats a very sharp trough. It almost was a cutoff like the ecmwf had a while back, but its a little too progressive. But there still could be a very close call to the outer banks esp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm under a WWA for 1-2 inches and 2-4 inches for areas above 2500. Not too shabby. I know how this works but it is a bit discouraging when you see yourself surrounded by purple. I'm in Kingsport BTW. For those of you who don't know the area geography, I'm just west of the interstate that is west of Bristol, TN on the VA/TN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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