FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The GFS has another cold blast coming into the northern plains at 168, so as soon as this one is out, the ridge in western Canada builds again, sending another shot of cold into the heartland. Rain ahead of the front next weekend. That front looks like it will come pretty far south, and a southwest system is showing up. I'm not sure I buy the cold coming back so quickly, but all models did have a tendency to rebuild the western ridge which is good if you're looking for wintry weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Thanks Robert . Let us know if the block still shows up day 9-10 Alaska. On the road on wifes phone and can't access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 That southwest cutoff will be a system to watch around day 8 through 10. With cold air in place for some part of the upper South, it may slide east, the PV is in a natural place, we have western ridging. This run of GFS looks like typical January weather, maybe warm in the southwest and Texas but pretty nice setup overall if this run is accurate. But with all the waffling, its hard to take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 That southwest cutoff will be a system to watch around day 8 through 10. With cold air in place for some part of the upper South, it may slide east, the PV is in a natural place, we have western ridging. This run of GFS looks like typical January weather, maybe warm in the southwest and Texas but pretty nice setup overall if this run is accurate. But with all the waffling, its hard to take it to the bank. That is an impressive run. I have not seen the Euro weeklies, but I would have to think that 12z GFS run is quite the opposite. What do you think is causing such big differences between the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Thanks Robert . Let us know if the block still shows up day 9-10 Alaska. On the road on wifes phone and can't access I just glanced it over, and its a nice run and offers hope thats for sure. There are several strong fronts that come into the South, possibly stalling and we keep some kind of ridging west, and troughing in central and eastern, with 2 big cold outbreaks and overruning for some areas. I didn't look that closely. Plenty of very cold air all over the continent though with bagginess in then central states, so that says system will be runing under the cold air, so the Plains and maybe Tenn Valley could get a winter event from the setup, really to early to say with any specifics. There's certainly no major warmth for us if there was it was only a day.Just checkd the later panels and yes it still does the big western Alaska ridge but it orients such that the west and central get very cold and the Southeast is in southwest flow and warmth bisecting us, with cold in Tn Valley to Mid Atlantic and overrunning snow ice there, rain in Deep South. Obviously thats 15 days out. I like how the GFS wants to keep western ridging throughout the run and keeps us with several things to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 That is an impressive run. I have not seen the Euro weeklies, but I would have to think that 12z GFS run is quite the opposite. What do you think is causing such big differences between the models? yes from what I hear its the exact opposite of the Euro weeklies. We'll see how things hedge, but already lately we've been seeing the trend toward less warmth after next weekends warmup, so without a strong Bermuda ridge, we shouldn't get too warm. Now the one big game changer will be later in the month when and if a big Alaska ridge builds. That could tip a deep trough in teh west, which would put the Southeast in a strong Bermuda ridge position and well above on Temps. I think the Euro Weeklies must be showing that. But I keep noticing the PV show up so far east around Hudson Bay and sometimes a separate vortex in eastern Canada on the GFS, that must be offseetting the warmth on the GFS. Who knows which model will be right yet. Trends are the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-look-at-the-extended-long-range-model-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. I could have been just fine never having clicked on that link. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. I won't say if thats right, but the GFS was absolutely nothing like that. All his panels had drier and mild in the lower Miss. Valley and the Southeast. whereas the GFS says rain rain rain and bouts of cold with warmth toward the Gulf states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS total precip this run: rain also had zr in one situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. What a mood killer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I won't say if thats right, but the GFS was absolutely nothing like that. All his panels had drier and mild in the lower Miss. Valley and the Southeast. whereas the GFS says rain rain rain and bouts of cold with warmth toward the Gulf states. I tend to agree, Robert. The Weeklies have been a bit less than accurate with this La Nina event as we saw here in Texas and the Southern Rockies during December. My hunch is the truth lies somewhere in between, but a return to a stormy pattern via the GFS ensembles and operational output for the past 5-7 days is becoming harder to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. The one flag I raise w/ that is that the southeast has been wet and probably remains so. Other than that, looks like a typical Nina pattern...which we have not seen in two years IMBY. Last winter was cold - dry. This winter torch - wet. I appreciate him/you for sharing that - gives better perspective on folks' opinions. Edit: Should give us a way to verify if the Euro pattern verifies. To me the pattern looks like it could be feeding back on either of the models - I just don't know which one. Might be good to know which one is at fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS still insists on some high lat anamolies but its still too far out in the run. If we're here in another week and talking still well out there in the run, then it's obvious it's barking up the wrong tree, so we'll see how things evolve over the next week. It has been adamant though on it, esp. around Alaska, but different places will have huge implications down the road for us, either for the better or the worse. It has the coldest air on our side of the globe, as opposed to Russia and Siberia or Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson drew the Euro weeklies today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge and keeps it once built, through the end of the run. I don't like the Euro Weeklies either. They do support the type of pattern we have seemed to have been setup to get all winter though... just brief transient bouts of true cold with snow hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 At hour 75 on GFS, it shows -17 850's along and west of 77 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I tend to agree, Robert. The Weeklies have been a bit less than accurate with this La Nina event as we saw here in Texas and the Southern Rockies during December. My hunch is the truth lies somewhere in between, but a return to a stormy pattern via the GFS ensembles and operational output for the past 5-7 days is becoming harder to ignore. Yeah, I wouldn't get too caught up in the weeklies. The Euro isn't infallible and is prone to changes like the rest of the models. It is best in the Day 5-6 range but anything after that is up for grabs and it can even show snowstorms that don't happen or troughs that are too deep when compared to what happens in reality. I follow the trends on the models and take it one step at a time with the first step being a removal of the Alaskan vortex, which has been progressing on the GFS and not stuck at like Day 14 or something on every run. After that is gone, what happens from there is Step 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah, I wouldn't get too caught up in the weeklies. The Euro isn't infallible and is prone to changes like the rest of the models. It is best in the Day 5-6 range but anything after that is up for grabs and it can even show snowstorms that don't happen or troughs that are too deep when compared to what happens in reality. I follow the trends on the models and take it one step at a time with the first step being a removal of the Alaskan vortex, which has been progressing on the GFS and not stuck at like Day 14 or something on every run. After that is gone, what happens from there is Step 2. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Back to the Mon-Tues cold outbreak- the 12Z Euro and CMC colder than the NAM and GFS- 516 thickness from ATL to ILM early Tuesday. Then the next short wave looks unimpressive, well NE but does hold in the cooler air for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Just a very nice one for the upslope areas, even Asheville should get part of this one, with maybe an inch in the city. I would like to squeeze an inch out of this. (especially with the very cold air!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I would like to squeeze an inch out of this. (especially with the very cold air!) I gotta believe you will get some snow from this blast....I will be in your neck of the woods Tuesday, not looking forward to riding on that cold bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I gotta believe you will get some snow from this blast...impressive 850's for us especially on Tuesday. I will be in your neck of the woods on Tuesday, not looking forward to riding on that cold bus. I'll come by and say hello. I would hate to waste this cold air mass. It doesn't take much to squeeze out snow if there is moisture when it's that cold.So hopefully, the NAM has a better clue than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Here you go Robert, NWS hazardous weather outlook: AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- 159 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY...AND BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO TEN BELOW MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Here you go Robert, NWS hazardous weather outlook: AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- 159 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY...AND BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO TEN BELOW MONDAY NIGHT. It's about time!! It'll be Jan before a decent snowfall, if you can call this decent. Even in the worst years that's horrible for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 the NAM is added a little more moisture for late monday night early tuesday morn...may have to be on flurry watch for sure! Dead on to what Robert has been saying for 2 days now...dang genius!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 the NAM is added a little more moisture for late monday night early tuesday morn...may have to be on flurry watch for sure! Dead on to what Robert has been saying for 2 days now...dang genius!! I'll take a chance of a stray flake!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Snow added to the forecast east of the mountains from Wilkes to Surry County,NC. <3 Monday Night Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Cooler with lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 0z GFs In line with 0z Nam, touch colder -18 850's west of 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that is -16 west of I-77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that is -16 west of I-77 Thanks, your probably in the know more than me. I did a double take trying to discern the if the -18 was the shade beside it as well as retrace the shades starting with the first blue color 0 850's and working my way backwards toward the color in NW NC. Unfortunately they are packed so tight that method doesn't work to well with this spell/outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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