Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Glad we are getting the cold, that is a first big start. Hopefully the storms and cold will come later. No confidence in any snow other than upslope through the 10th - 15th. Yeah, but who cares about the cold if there is no snow to show with it? The only thing getting a rise out of that is my heating bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 RaleighWx makes me sad. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snow-threat-looks-less-today-cold-weather-on-the-way?CID=examiner_alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS has fooled me too many times. I certainly hope it is correct but it needs to start showing up in that 250+ time frame and not 350hr time frame. I agree. We'll have to keep checking it in about a week to see if its still there, but now its getting into the stage where its atleast showing up in the Day 11 range. Here's an animation showing days 11 through 14 (couldn't get 15). If this were right, we'd be making a run at a great pattern. The holy grail of all time snow + cold patterns in the southeast and east Coast was late Feb to March 1960, and the GFS looks roughly similar....not exact though. I'm definitely not saying that will happen again , as much as it would make everybodys Winter on the board, that was the perfect setup, but its fun to look at how close the upper features could line up anywhere near close to that epic period again. Who knows one day it probably will, don't know if we'll live to see it though. But a block in Alaska or just north of Alaska and another area of strong ridging on the opposite side of the globe helps to create a suppressed storm track for the U.S. I suppose there could be such a big block there though, and a strong ridge in the Southeast, creating a very warm pattern, but so far the GFS has been keeping us cold at those time frames. Get this look at 5h, and we'd most certainly head into a winter storm pattern. Now we just need to bring it into a realistic time frame, say under 10 days. Keep rooting this type of look on if you want to see one extreme weather pattern, plus the time frame couldn't be better...January and into February (since blocking lingers for weeks), as opposed to March. Just for fun now though. Enjoy (while its still there!) March 1960 heights: Current GFS days 11-14: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The new Euro weeklies out during the overnight probably have many easterners considering jumping off of buildings... It does not look a whole lot different than it did at the beginning of December so we are just going to have to hope for a continuation of the stormy pattern if this verifies...The ensembles still at least show some hope of a change in the Day 11+ range so I am not necessarily a strong believer in this run of weeklies yet. I do, however, blame this on a coworker who bought her first snowboard just before winter... 2008 has been bandied about some...we had a very similar sharp cold burst right at the new year followed by a dramatic rebound much like next week...we did see some decent cold later in January 2008 but I have not looked at that pattern at all other than knowing the ENSO signatures are somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I see we're back to the "I'd rather it be warm than cold if it's not going to snow" argument. Take it to the banter thread folks, it's been done before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good morning all, pretty brutal overnight afd from GSP. My saying of the winter so far....Oh well there is always the following week! MAXES FOR TUE WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT. I'd say 10 degrees below normal is a bit conservative. Raw GFS has a high of 33 and GFS MOS MEX has the high at 29 for Tues at CLT...which is more like 20 deg below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'd say 10 degrees below normal is a bit conservative. Raw GFS has a high of 33 and GFS MOS MEX has the high at 29 for Tues at CLT...which is more like 20 deg below normal. I agree. The GFS has our area around Freezing. GFS has an excellent track record during the 6 big cold outbreaks of 2010 and 2011, in each one is was dead on from 3 days out, so we'll see what it does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The new Euro weeklies out during the overnight probably have many easterners considering jumping off of buildings... It does not look a whole lot different than it did at the beginning of December so we are just going to have to hope for a continuation of the stormy pattern if this verifies...The ensembles still at least show some hope of a change in the Day 11+ range so I am not necessarily a strong believer in this run of weeklies yet. I do, however, blame this on a coworker who bought her first snowboard just before winter... 2008 has been bandied about some...we had a very similar sharp cold burst right at the new year followed by a dramatic rebound much like next week...we did see some decent cold later in January 2008 but I have not looked at that pattern at all other than knowing the ENSO signatures are somewhat similar. Thanks for the update. Hopefully the ENS is correct and we can get what the GFS is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The new Euro weeklies out during the overnight probably have many easterners considering jumping off of buildings... It does not look a whole lot different than it did at the beginning of December so we are just going to have to hope for a continuation of the stormy pattern if this verifies...The ensembles still at least show some hope of a change in the Day 11+ range so I am not necessarily a strong believer in this run of weeklies yet. I do, however, blame this on a coworker who bought her first snowboard just before winter... 2008 has been bandied about some...we had a very similar sharp cold burst right at the new year followed by a dramatic rebound much like next week...we did see some decent cold later in January 2008 but I have not looked at that pattern at all other than knowing the ENSO signatures are somewhat similar. Does she still have the receipt and is it too late to take back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 12z GFS still looks like 20 deg below normal for Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Cold front passes through the SE during the day on Sunday, then strong cold advection with gusty winds kick in through Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looks like the GFS has come back to its senses now with the 2nd wave as it provides a mini-re-inforcement of the cold air - similar to the other global models last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GvlleSC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So how about Greenville, SC for the next 2-3 weeks? Should I go out and buy boots for my son? He is wanting them but I told him I will only buy them if there is a serious snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Cold front passes through the SE during the day on Sunday, then strong cold advection with gusty winds kick in through Tuesday 12z Wed. has freezing temps almost down to Miami...brrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looks like the GFS has come back to its senses now with the 2nd wave as it provides a mini-re-inforcement of the cold air - similar to the other global models last night Although much less cold, coastal development beginning at 141 off of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm a new b at this but is there any idea what the wind chills will be or if there will be any for this cold spell coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The new Euro weeklies out during the overnight probably have many easterners considering jumping off of buildings... It does not look a whole lot different than it did at the beginning of December so we are just going to have to hope for a continuation of the stormy pattern if this verifies...The ensembles still at least show some hope of a change in the Day 11+ range so I am not necessarily a strong believer in this run of weeklies yet. I do, however, blame this on a coworker who bought her first snowboard just before winter... 2008 has been bandied about some...we had a very similar sharp cold burst right at the new year followed by a dramatic rebound much like next week...we did see some decent cold later in January 2008 but I have not looked at that pattern at all other than knowing the ENSO signatures are somewhat similar. You know what you must do. The snowboard must be given willingly by the coworker to you. Then it must be mailed to someone in the mid-Atlantic region, preferably in Richmond or DC. Once this is done, the models will then begin showing false snowstorms for us to follow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So how about Greenville, SC for the next 2-3 weeks? Should I go out and buy boots for my son? He is wanting them but I told him I will only buy them if there is a serious snow threat. buy him the boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Although much less cold, coastal development beginning at 141 off of NC. It doesn't really go anywhere just stays off the coast then heads for the deep sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It doesn't really go anywhere just stays off the coast then heads for the deep sea. Much different than last night's 00z run. Wild changes once again though. It had a cutoff in Texas. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Not with the heights being poked up over the Southeast in the time prior to that energy coming across Texas...too much warmth in place ahead of the feature... Is that July? lol. I would suspect there is a tropical cyclone just of the SE of the frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Still a very cold day showing up, slightly colder in NC and SC this run. It has -16 at 850 coming into western NC including the western Piedmont on Tuesday morning. It shows surface temps remaining below 32 in Charlotte and all points west Tuesday. Also has very high sustained winds in the northern mountains, probably 35 to 40 knots. So wind chills will be well below zero there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So how about Greenville, SC for the next 2-3 weeks? Should I go out and buy boots for my son? He is wanting them but I told him I will only buy them if there is a serious snow threat. banter thread buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm relieved it was your co worker! I got up enough wood up over the summer to burn for years, plus I bought a snow tire, so I was thinking I might be partially at fault 'Tho I think the snow tire actually enhance the chances for epic!! Gfs is doing ok in the short range. I'm in heavy cloud cover, and it looks like I could see some drizzle at some point. Although that tongue of moisture was up higher in earlier model runs. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Even in the LR this GFS just looks "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Even in the LR this GFS just looks "meh". I'm at work checking in. Does the Block up toward Alaska Robert alluded to show up this run Day 10-15? Hoping the Euro Day 10 frames in conjunction with GFS will keep teasing us with this possibility as we head into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Even in the LR this GFS just looks "meh". Yeah, but look how changable it has been lately. I think it is just trying to get it's electrons around a step down to colder. As long as it keeps moisture coming.....T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Much different than last night's 00z run. Wild changes once again though. It had a cutoff in Texas. haha. What else is new. The models are so back and forth this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Guys, please take the discussion about the AK block (or not) to the medium range thread. The 12Z Euro is colder, 516 thickness MCN to CAE 06Z Tuesday. Brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No mention of the 1003 low off hatteras on the euro? As long as its in the neighborhood of impacting land in the SE I figure it deserves a mention. Especially for our coastal folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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