wh_adkins01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 unbelievable, I'm not sure I have ever seen the GFS perform so poorly...granted I know it's not great on a good day but I'm starting to wonder why I sit in front of my pc 4 times a day entertaining the notion it may actually have a clue...awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 youve got two global models, one digs a wave from south dakota to the midwest and cuts it off over texas, another says, "what wave"........ and my wife wonders why I drink whiskey sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Have to start thinking that the GFS is catching the early rumblings of a pretty significant, wide-spread cold event. Saw some tremendous clouds of starlings today. Birds are hammering my feeders. Have to wonder if they know something I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 unbelievable, I'm not sure I have ever seen the GFS perform so poorly...granted I know it's not great on a good day but I'm starting to wonder why I sit in front of my pc 4 times a day entertaining the notion it may actually have a clue...awful They don't call it the GooFuS for nothing. I wonder how much in tax dollars were wasted on this sorry weather model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Now i know why the squirrels were eating and packing so many nuts back in sept.....Per my avatar..... Or they were looking at the GFS and confused like i am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It still doesn't mean it will happen but the GFS has picked up some big events like this in the past well out past 300 hours. And it still likes the idea of a big ridge somewhere around Alaska, maybe the north slope. This run has a good rex block, and it has some really brutal cold at the surface , all over Canada except maybe eastern Canada. Notice that southern Greenland warms up and the area between Ak. and the NP. The models will keep on with the wild swings, but it's also indicative of something real around that time frame I think. It could easily be misplaced a few miles though. Just something to watch. There is certainly no shortage of cold air aloft and the surface all over Russia, Siberia and the northern Plains of our country into most of Canada in the later panels. Notice how warm it is now , and compared with progged. Big time brrrr at -45 to -50 at the surface, in huge areas of Siberia and Canada. this is potentially good news, since the models tried and tried to build a big west coast ridge (which now finally appears to happen) likewise this model wants to eventually build a big Alaska ridge, so we have to be patient and see if it keeps showing up. It may (but might not). Even though its week and half to 2 weeks out, if you like cold air, the best way is to build big heights close to the pole, either in Greenland or Alaska. now: 384: Canada at 360 hour: Height Anomaly 348 hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS 2pm temperatures on Tuesday: Staying in the teens all day for the Ski slopes, and not above freezing west of I-85 in NC and down to northern Atlanta suburbs and most of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Canadian takes the 2nd wave into the mid-Atlantic states, with a re-inforcing shot of cold-ish air. Nogaps looks similar to the Canadian. Suspect the 00z GFS is out to lunch with the far west track of the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 We went from a weak Southeast coastal wave to a 2 or 3 contour cutoff in Texas. Amazing. No cold air to be found and rain breaking out in the Gulf states. It should move east since there's a strong system coming into California by then...so another good rain event for the Southeast if this is right. I like it Out two weeks and now the rain is back, and some serious cold, all in a single model run. Get that closed low to not linger in Texas but drop on down, and move on out, and maybe we get something. I've been feeling for a few days we might get a low in the gulf off the end of the front. Maybe in the next few runs we get a nice blend. At any rate, even if the cold misses I still want the rain, lol....and the chances increased this run. More rain chances, more cold air, more chances for timing..I like it :)T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looks like Ecmwf isn't going to break the second s/w off like the GFS did. However it does rebuild the western ridge quickly as that wave is moving into the Midwest, so its not far from dropping it far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS looks much colder about 10 days after this upcoming cold shot. Things are going to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 The TX low on the GFS is pure fantasy, no way this happens. It still looks boring to me, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No storm. Weak upper impulse slides off the east coast. It keeps the cold in much longer than GFS. Its an impressive cold streak for the east, esp. NC northward, from Monday through Thursday , 4 consecutive days of cold, esp. Mon-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No storm. Weak upper impulse slides off the east coast. It keeps the cold in much longer than GFS. Its an impressive cold streak for the east, esp. NC northward, from Monday through Thursday , 4 consecutive days of cold, esp. Mon-Wed. 0z Goofy says I'm not getting out of the 30's on Tuesday and gives me the first sprinkles of the year on the 8th/9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 any comments about the euro at 240? looks very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 any comments about the euro at 240? looks very interesting What's so interesting about a Pig Ridge that has flushed out any cold air that was in the Eastern US a week prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What's so interesting about a Pig Ridge that has flushed out any cold air that was in the Eastern US a week prior? you don't like this setup? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2011123000®ion=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 you don't like this setup? http://www.instantwe..._500mb&hour=240 Not with the heights being poked up over the Southeast in the time prior to that energy coming across Texas...too much warmth in place ahead of the feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I see what you mean. I hate that the cold isn't coming down behind it too.Thanks. Not with the heights being poked up over the Southeast in the time prior to that energy coming across Texas...too much warmth in place ahead of the feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6Z NAM is very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No shock here 6z looks a lot like 00z. Gonna have to wait on 12z to see if it gets off crack with that cutoff in OK, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Not only is the early part of the medium range going to be cold but there seems to be a consensus growing that Mid-January could be really, really tough stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z likes to keep the ridge out west and then pops one over Alaska. Like Robert has talked about. Keeps plenty of cold in the east. Looks like snow cover is finally being laid in the lakes and plains. Were right now its mostly bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Good morning all, pretty brutal overnight afd from GSP. My saying of the winter so far....Oh well there is always the following week! .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...A WELL DEVELOPED LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXT RANGE FEATURING A WRN RIDGE AND A COLD ERN TROF. A WANING SUBSIDENCE NW FLOW EVENT SHOULD BE MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN ZONES EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NRN FOUR COUNTIES. IN ANY CASE...SLIGHT POPS AT 12Z MON WILL BE BROUGHT TO NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW. A DECENT SHOT OF CAA WILL COMMENCE MON AFTERNOON AS A DRY CA AIRMASS OVER THE OH VALLEY MIXES SOUTH. MAX TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN SUN/S HIGHS AND FAIRLY STOUT WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL MAKE FOR LOW APPARENT TEMPS...ESP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E PUSHES IN. MAXES FOR TUE WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT. A SLOW WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THU...BUT PROBABLY STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL...AS DRY CA AIR MASSES ARE HARD TO MODIFY IN JAN INSOLATION. DONT EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SWINGS A MOISTURE DEFICIENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA LATE WED...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW AND KEEPS GOM MOISTURE FLUX TO THE SW ACROSS ERN TX AND LA THROUGH FRI. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOLN THE PAST COUPLE RUNS AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Not that I was buying it to begin with but it's amazing what we started out with in this thread and what we've ended up with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is a wild run all around. Not sure why but the models are very prone to extreme swings lately. At one point I saw a cutoff in the Southwest, Southeast and southern Manitoba at the same time. Throughout the run if you look a the northern Hemisphere there are cutoffs and steep troughs/ridges everywhere. And again around 324 hr, it builds a major block in western Canada. A few days ago on the 384 it had a huge block there as well, so this is the second or third time its done that and its a little closer now....still a long ways off from reality though. Another cold outbreak if that happens. A potentially massive Arctic outbreak. 6z GFS also shows the block in western Canada. I think this may have merit and actually be our pattern flip. It correlates with what other have said about a focus of mid January. This current cold blast is just another transient "cool down" within the current warmer than normal pattern; event though it is quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Glad we are getting the cold, that is a first big start. Hopefully the storms and cold will come later. No confidence in any snow other than upslope through the 10th - 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6z GFS also shows the block in western Canada. I think this may have merit and actually be our pattern flip. It correlates with what other have said about a focus of mid January. This current cold blast is just another transient "cool down" within the current warmer than normal pattern; event though it is quite cold. GFS has fooled me too many times. I certainly hope it is correct but it needs to start showing up in that 250+ time frame and not 350hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS has fooled me too many times. I certainly hope it is correct but it needs to start showing up in that 250+ time frame and not 350hr time frame. I hear ya. The 6Z run first shows the Alaska block forming around 264H. So it's getting closer, we just need to keep seeing it show up. And then it sits there the rest of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Great, we finally get some real cold air and nothing to show for it. Typical for around here. Either it's too warm for snow or there is no precip around. And of course the models are all over the place like usual. I don't know why we even have forecasts for more than 48 hours out. You can't rely on the models for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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