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Early Jan cold and/or snow threat


Cheeznado

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unbelievable, I'm not sure I have ever seen the GFS perform so poorly...granted I know it's not great on a good day but I'm starting to wonder why I sit in front of my pc 4 times a day entertaining the notion it may actually have a clue...awful

They don't call it the GooFuS for nothing. I wonder how much in tax dollars were wasted on this sorry weather model?

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It still doesn't mean it will happen but the GFS has picked up some big events like this in the past well out past 300 hours. And it still likes the idea of a big ridge somewhere around Alaska, maybe the north slope. This run has a good rex block, and it has some really brutal cold at the surface , all over Canada except maybe eastern Canada. Notice that southern Greenland warms up and the area between Ak. and the NP. The models will keep on with the wild swings, but it's also indicative of something real around that time frame I think. It could easily be misplaced a few miles though. Just something to watch. There is certainly no shortage of cold air aloft and the surface all over Russia, Siberia and the northern Plains of our country into most of Canada in the later panels. Notice how warm it is now , and compared with progged. Big time brrrr at -45 to -50 at the surface, in huge areas of Siberia and Canada.

this is potentially good news, since the models tried and tried to build a big west coast ridge (which now finally appears to happen) likewise this model wants to eventually build a big Alaska ridge, so we have to be patient and see if it keeps showing up. It may (but might not). Even though its week and half to 2 weeks out, if you like cold air, the best way is to build big heights close to the pole, either in Greenland or Alaska.

now:

post-38-0-11253400-1325221951.gif

384:

post-38-0-32905700-1325221960.gif

Canada at 360 hour:

post-38-0-19502000-1325221984.gif

Height Anomaly 348 hour:

post-38-0-49544200-1325222026.gif

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We went from a weak Southeast coastal wave to a 2 or 3 contour cutoff in Texas. Amazing. No cold air to be found and rain breaking out in the Gulf states. It should move east since there's a strong system coming into California by then...so another good rain event for the Southeast if this is right.

I like it :) Out two weeks and now the rain is back, and some serious cold, all in a single model run. Get that closed low to not linger in Texas but drop on down, and move on out, and maybe we get something. I've been feeling for a few days we might get a low in the gulf off the end of the front. Maybe in the next few runs we get a nice blend. At any rate, even if the cold misses I still want the rain, lol....and the chances increased this run. More rain chances, more cold air, more chances for timing..I like it :)T

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No storm. Weak upper impulse slides off the east coast. It keeps the cold in much longer than GFS. Its an impressive cold streak for the east, esp. NC northward, from Monday through Thursday , 4 consecutive days of cold, esp. Mon-Wed.

0z Goofy says I'm not getting out of the 30's on Tuesday and gives me the first sprinkles of the year on the 8th/9th ^_^

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Good morning all, pretty brutal overnight afd from GSP. My saying of the winter so far....Oh well there is always the following week!

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...A WELL DEVELOPED LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN STORE

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXT RANGE FEATURING A WRN RIDGE AND A COLD

ERN TROF. A WANING SUBSIDENCE NW FLOW EVENT SHOULD BE MOISTURE

LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN ZONES EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NRN FOUR

COUNTIES. IN ANY CASE...SLIGHT POPS AT 12Z MON WILL BE BROUGHT TO

NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY

LOW.

A DECENT SHOT OF CAA WILL COMMENCE MON AFTERNOON AS A DRY CA AIRMASS

OVER THE OH VALLEY MIXES SOUTH. MAX TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 15

DEGREES F COOLER THAN SUN/S HIGHS AND FAIRLY STOUT WINDS ACROSS THE

MTNS WILL MAKE FOR LOW APPARENT TEMPS...ESP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A

REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E PUSHES IN. MAXES FOR TUE WILL BE

ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT

FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT. A SLOW WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL

LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THU...BUT PROBABLY STILL A BIT BELOW

NORMAL...AS DRY CA AIR MASSES ARE HARD TO MODIFY IN JAN INSOLATION.

DONT EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z

ECMWF SWINGS A MOISTURE DEFICIENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA LATE

WED...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW AND KEEPS GOM

MOISTURE FLUX TO THE SW ACROSS ERN TX AND LA THROUGH FRI. THE

STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOLN THE

PAST COUPLE RUNS AS WELL.

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This is a wild run all around. Not sure why but the models are very prone to extreme swings lately. At one point I saw a cutoff in the Southwest, Southeast and southern Manitoba at the same time. Throughout the run if you look a the northern Hemisphere there are cutoffs and steep troughs/ridges everywhere. And again around 324 hr, it builds a major block in western Canada. A few days ago on the 384 it had a huge block there as well, so this is the second or third time its done that and its a little closer now....still a long ways off from reality though. Another cold outbreak if that happens. A potentially massive Arctic outbreak.

6z GFS also shows the block in western Canada. I think this may have merit and actually be our pattern flip. It correlates with what other have said about a focus of mid January. This current cold blast is just another transient "cool down" within the current warmer than normal pattern; event though it is quite cold.

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6z GFS also shows the block in western Canada. I think this may have merit and actually be our pattern flip. It correlates with what other have said about a focus of mid January. This current cold blast is just another transient "cool down" within the current warmer than normal pattern; event though it is quite cold.

GFS has fooled me too many times. I certainly hope it is correct but it needs to start showing up in that 250+ time frame and not 350hr time frame.

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GFS has fooled me too many times. I certainly hope it is correct but it needs to start showing up in that 250+ time frame and not 350hr time frame.

I hear ya. The 6Z run first shows the Alaska block forming around 264H. So it's getting closer, we just need to keep seeing it show up.

gfs_namer_264_500_vort_ht.gif

And then it sits there the rest of the run:

gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif

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Great, we finally get some real cold air and nothing to show for it. Typical for around here. Either it's too warm for snow or there is no precip around. And of course the models are all over the place like usual. I don't know why we even have forecasts for more than 48 hours out. You can't rely on the models for anything.

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