Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 is that a bubble of -20's in NC or are my old eyes fooling me You must have faster maps, I'm at 114 hr and -10c all of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 You must have faster maps, I'm at 114 hr and -10c all of NC and SC. Edit: -17 is as cold as it makes it in NC.... -12's engulf the entire state at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 is that a bubble of -20's in NC or are my old eyes fooling me I saw -16 in western NC at 108 I think. Anyway this is a switch...that western s/w is diving in the east side of the Rockies in Wyoming at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I saw -16 in western NC at 108 I think. Anyway this is a switch...that western s/w is diving in the east side of the Rockies in Wyoming at 120. A lot more WAA ahead of it though, may get the storm but will there be cold? And once again another different look on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 this is going to be a major switch. The western wave is diving in the Plains states. Likewise the cold on the east coast is rocketing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 not to get any hopes up but at 84 and 96 hours that trough off the west coast is already well detached from the main trough. It can still rejoin it later in southern Canada or, more likely than that, get sheared later on. I'm out to 129 and it's still detached. This run is handling the trough a lot different than 18z. I don't know if that will have a different result though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Edit: -17 is as cold as it makes it in NC.... -12's engulf the entire state at one point You're right about the temps being colder than -10. I was looking at the wrong maps for that period using 10 degree increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 A lot more WAA ahead of it though, may get the storm but will there be cold? And once again another different look on the GFS. Yes, a warm up some. Now we have a closed off Low in Kansas...didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 gonna be too little too late, I'm afraid. The cold will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 this is going to be a major switch. The western wave is diving in the Plains states. Likewise the cold on the east coast is rocketing out. Closed 500 low at 138 but like you said temps are warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yes, a warm up some. Now we have a closed off Low in Kansas...didn't see that coming. The differences between 12z, 18z, and now 0z are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The differences between 12z, 18z, and now 0z are laughable. That's an understatement..it's almost ridiculous at this point. I really feel for the forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The differences between 12z, 18z, and now 0z are laughable. very true. And the Euro had nothing for that 2nd wave, and we're within 132 hours atleast, so its pretty wild for them to be this different. I have a feeling it will come in way different tonight. If the GFS is right there could be room for a re-inforcing shot of cold in the East, perhaps setting for a damming event when that Kansas wave moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 @ 159 the closed 500 low is just stalled out in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 probably gonna be a big ol' rain storm for someone.... I feel like were dealing with Goofus circa 2005 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Call me crazy, but this is probably not a bad thing considering where the 12z models were. Good luck though getting the cold air and storm to dance together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What time will the Euro run and who will be able to give us a play by play on it tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What time will the Euro run and who will be able to give us a play by play on it tonight? around 12:50, and I'll do my best, but forewarning, if the trough moves out like the GFS and we see some big warm up... I probably wont finish to follow this cutoff, nonsense the GFS has boiled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 We went from a weak Southeast coastal wave to a 2 or 3 contour cutoff in Texas. Amazing. No cold air to be found and rain breaking out in the Gulf states. It should move east since there's a strong system coming into California by then...so another good rain event for the Southeast if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 @ 174 still at the Tx./Ok. border. Maybe it'll just hang out there until we get some cold air...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 How many cutoffs have there been in west TX this season? Its like every trough just decides to park itself there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 around 12:50, and I'll do my best, but forewarning, if the trough moves out like the GFS and we see some big warm up... I probably wont finish to follow this cutoff, nonsense the GFS has boiled up Thanks! I am a newbie and trying to learn how to read the models etc. Just soaking in everything you guys are saying and trying to decipher it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sound effect snow on the outer banks at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Thanks! I am a newbie and trying to learn how to read the models etc. Just soaking in everything you guys are saying and trying to decipher it! Keep in mind if you go to weatherunderground.com and load "model maps" you will have access to 3 hr increments of the 180 ECMWF model on there also which will cover this event. Even the precip/snowcover maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 @ 174 still at the Tx./Ok. border. Maybe it'll just hang out there until we get some cold air...lol. Im sure a kicker will be along soon and send it into the Lakes region. Time to call in the Crazy Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sound effect snow on the outer banks at 120 I lived there my entire life, except for the past year, and there is no such thing. Ocean effect happens every once in a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 this run of the 00z gfs was a bit colder with the initial trough next week.. but man.. terrible for any winter weather lover. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Im sure a kicker will be along soon and send it into the Lakes region. Time to call in the Crazy Uncle Lol, yeah the kicker finally came in that system in Cali. that Robert mentioned. It finally made it to the SE (somewhat) at hr 216. It went to Tn, over the apps, to the Va./NC border for a good ol rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Nothing of note on the UKMet...does not dig a 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is a wild run all around. Not sure why but the models are very prone to extreme swings lately. At one point I saw a cutoff in the Southwest, Southeast and southern Manitoba at the same time. Throughout the run if you look a the northern Hemisphere there are cutoffs and steep troughs/ridges everywhere. And again around 324 hr, it builds a major block in western Canada. A few days ago on the 384 it had a huge block there as well, so this is the second or third time its done that and its a little closer now....still a long ways off from reality though. Another cold outbreak if that happens. A potentially massive Arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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