ams30721us Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah, it looks a tick southwest of the 12z run, but don't know if it's going to get to neutral tilt Yea, this is a pretty decent shift to the west and slowing of the wave though, to pop a surface low in the Gulf now. Interesting to see if these trends continue. Still something to watch... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 What an incredibly broad ridge. Looks like a big speed hump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 if the southern stream phases with the northern stream this could become a legitimate threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18Z DGEX pops a coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 MHX gets a dumping from the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Hopefully this is the beginning of a favorable trend and not something that only shows up one time. Just having that trough do what the 18z GFS depicts is a nice start but I would like to see the system get more "oomph" in it as it dives down toward the Southeast and see the trough development look a little more favorable. We'll see come the 0z run if the GFS keeps this idea but the 18z was close to something really good there with our second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What concerns me is how positive the trough is tilted w/ the energy in Ala. and Ga. Even if it did try to go negative at that point, any slp would be too far off the coast. We ran into a situation similar to this last year where the energy was too far to the east and the trough was too positive to make a turn. Of course this is still worth watching but imo we want to see the energy further to the west and the trough not so positive tilted so it can make a turn. If that happens then we'll see about the retrieving temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What concerns me is how positive the trough is tilted w/ the energy in Ala. and Ga. Even if it did try to go negative at that point, any slp would be too far off the coast. We ran into a situation similar to this last year where the energy was too far to the east and the trough was too positive to make a turn. Of course this is still worth watching but imo we want to see the energy further to the west and the trough not so positive tilted so it can make a turn. If that happens then we'll see about the retrieving temps. Prob going to be an I-95 east situation if it's anything at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 NWS for the Raleigh, NC region has sunny to mostly sunny for this coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Yep, it's the dreaded 'S' word for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What concerns me is how positive the trough is tilted w/ the energy in Ala. and Ga. Even if it did try to go negative at that point, any slp would be too far off the coast. We ran into a situation similar to this last year where the energy was too far to the east and the trough was too positive to make a turn. Of course this is still worth watching but imo we want to see the energy further to the west and the trough not so positive tilted so it can make a turn. If that happens then we'll see about the retrieving temps. I think that's exactly right. The ridge out west needs to look more like Mt. Rainier and less like Stone Mountain. Otherwise, that energy will just mosey SE and right out to sea, and we'll all end up with sunburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think that's exactly right. The ridge out west needs to look more like Mt. Rainier and less like Stone Mountain. Otherwise, that energy will just mosey SE and right out to sea, and we'll all end up with sunburn. More like windburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Prob going to be an I-95 east situation if it's anything at all Maybe clip the coast-line like that system back in January (or was it February?), just a lot less precip obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Prob going to be an I-95 east situation if it's anything at all Cape Hatteras special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Cape Hatteras special? . Thinking more of a hwy 17 corridor, but this is all speculative. I'd say if the 0z trends that way we should all grab our beach chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 . Thinking more of a hwy 17 corridor, but this is all speculative. I'd say if the 0z trends that way we should all grab our beach chairs. I'm in. I've never seen snow on the beach before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That shortwave depicted by the GFS will surely change dramatically (if it'll even come southward). Between the 12z and 18z GFS it was a vastly different solution. One coastal, one gulf on the OP runs. Has anyone checked out the ensembles? Edit: looked @ 12z ensembles and more do support a coastal although not unanimous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Will be interesting to see how the 00z gfs looks. With 12z and 18z so different in regards to the 2nd s/w and the amt of precip this could be a nice fantasy run for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That shortwave depicted by the GFS will surely change dramatically (if it'll even come southward). Between the 12z and 18z GFS it was a vastly different solution. One coastal, one gulf on the OP runs. Has anyone checked out the ensembles? Edit: looked @ 12z ensembles and more do support a coastal although not unanimous. I took a quick look at the 18z individual ensembles and I think there were 3 members that brought snow to the Carolina's, so not terrible, I guess. Be nice to see that increase tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So, from the 12z Op runs, the GFS/JMA had the 2nd wave dropping down into the SE, the Euro/UKMet/Canadian/Nogaps did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm in. I've never seen snow on the beach before! come on down, the price is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 the GFS has enough separation with the trough that it breaks the southern end off, whereas most models don't do that as much. We had a lot of big troughs in which the northern end went faster this season, which left the southern part hanging back and those ended up turning into cutoffs, but that is kind of common for Southwest troughs. Not so much for the Southeast. I can't remember ever seeing on do that here, but I guess anything is possible. Even so, a lot of other things would have to line up really good. The models show the surface high in the Southeast, around GA at the time the next trough digs, so that would be warming air in tandem with return flow around teh main surface high. There may be enough of a high in the Northeast that could help offset the warm advection...too far out to know. If you're looking for snow, first thing would be to hope that next s/w splits and the southern part really digs. I think the coastal plain has the best shot right now, but temps could be iffy. It's so close to the main trough though its hard to see how it could gain enough amplitude, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 come on down, the price is right! Only if the Sea Captain's House, Drunken Jack's, and Hot Stacks are open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I took a quick look at the 18z individual ensembles and I think there were 3 members that brought snow to the Carolina's, so not terrible, I guess. Be nice to see that increase tonight. n001 and n005 are the two I focused on when I looked at them. Interesting how one of them goes with a slight inland track but brings a great deal of accumulation while the other is just off the coast but still gives the folks in Eastern NC such as Fayetteville a few inches. 168 hrs. 180 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looking at ens models over 140 hours out? I sure hope 00z does us good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 n001 and n005 are the two I focused on when I looked at them. Interesting how one of them goes with a slight inland track but brings a great deal of accumulation while the other is just off the coast but still gives the folks in Eastern NC such as Fayetteville a few inches. 168 hrs. Don't do this to brick. Poor guy's heart can't take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 thing i noticed about those two is how much WAA it brings in.... wouldn't be a good run for coastal plain folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looking at ens models over 140 hours out? I sure hope 00z does us good tonight. At least it's inside 192 hours. The 00z and 12z runs from the GGEM, Euro, and GFS.. and not too long from now NAM will be important runs. The wave is there, and as we get close we will zone in on what it will do. If Robert happens to be right and we really do get a cut-off as the Euro was onto 2 days ago and back/forth.. it could be a major system for someone in the Southeast. He's been predicting it for months and if amplification can happen, whew. I definitely wouldn't throw the amazing runs of the Euro out yet even though its let go. What's happened since? The GFS going from a Zonal flow from half of the world to some sort of development off the coast/gulf. It definitely is our first real threat to watch even out to 72 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 not to get any hopes up but at 84 and 96 hours that trough off the west coast is already well detached from the main trough. It can still rejoin it later in southern Canada or, more likely than that, get sheared later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This 00z run of the GFS actually gets 0c 850's into Northern Florida around the panhandle area around 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 is that a bubble of -20's in NC or are my old eyes fooling me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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