Poimen Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 @96 it has us with like .25 over 24 hours with enough cold air in place.. thanks, burger. It seems like the precip is a little overdone. It's all frontal precip, right? If so, I doubt it would be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 DGEX was on board at 6Z for some coastal development with the second s/w diving down on the backside of the trough around hour 180 but it was just a tad too far offshore to help anyone. I'll never forget the storms last year that painted MBY with like three feet of snow on the DGEX....now that is how you dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 JMA digs the 2nd wave into N Miss with weak sfc low in NE gulf. 1032 sfc high is just off Boston. 850 0 deg goes from GSO to BHM. So, it's more storm, but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The JMA with 1000-500mb thickness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 i see at the end of the GFS run that wave after wave comes by here but the cold air is no where to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 thanks, burger. It seems like the precip is a little overdone. It's all frontal precip, right? If so, I doubt it would be cold enough for snow. That assumption would probably be correct since it runs in 24hr panels....but given the GFS and Euro if that moisture was correct I would think we could eek out some snow out of that. Just my humble opinion though, a real professional can probably give a much more accurate opinion. Scumbag Chris - Talks about JMA; doesn't clarify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'll never forget the storms last year that painted MBY with like three feet of snow on the DGEX....now that is how you dream. Just once I'd love for a DGEX modeled blizzard to verify with nearly exact totals in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 JMA digs the 2nd wave into N Miss with weak sfc low in NE gulf. 1032 sfc high is just off Boston. 850 0 deg goes from GSO to BHM. So, it's more storm, but warmer. Perfect! sw little stronger cold will hold little longer. Bingo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here's the JMA at 168 500mb 850mb SFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have a feeling that this storm is going to go down as the greatest snipe hunt of the entire Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have a feeling that this storm is going to go down as the greatest snipe hunt of the entire Winter. It's been a lifetime of snipe hunts down here in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have a feeling that this storm is going to go down as the greatest snipe hunt of the entire Winter. Isn't that pretty much every storm? Even in this case there is some part of us that hopes for a surprise! The true weenie knows it might just over perform. Hehe good thing the JMA is starting to have our backs. Now lets see what the 18z NAM says tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 One thing thats interesting to note on the 12z Euro....the 700RH is pretty high across the midlands and pee dee region of SC. With 850 temps at -13 or below, it doesnt take a ton of moisture to get some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ^i hear you. I've got my gun too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All we need is the DGEX to get on board and it's a lock! Lol...That's exactly what we need. I can see it now, the JD rule. If the JMA and DGEX are showing a storm, you can take to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have a feeling that this storm is going to go down as the greatest snipe hunt of the entire Winter. MMMM..roast snipe smoothered in wish gravy At least the doc. has some cold in here. Got to figure the precip. is just hiding with the snipes and will show up soon. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have a feeling that this storm is going to go down as the greatest snipe hunt of the entire Winter. That's a pretty bold prediction. Winter's just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 actually, that tongue of moisture appears to extend up the sandhills/western coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 From GSP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE TROF AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADS LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRY BECAUSE OF A WEAKER LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL PLAY IT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND KEEP IT DRY TO AVOID ANY VERY LOW CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP ISSUES FOR NOW. From RAH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BC COAST MONDAY MORNING TOPS THE RIDGE AND DROPS TO THE SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN AND A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT... THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH THIS FEATURE`S SPEED AND AMPLITUDE... WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER/DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WHILE TRENDING FASTER/DEEPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF CULMINATE IN A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SC (WITH THE GFS 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF)... WHICH PROMPTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS AND INSTEAD SWINGS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH NC EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE CHANGES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS FAR OUT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW... BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS CLIPPER FEATURE AS THIS TIME PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RECOVER A BIT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS TO TREND FROM MAINLY THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT (LOWER 20S) BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GFS might be suggesting winter precip around the 5th for CLT. Hopefully future runs will trend to this or greater. On a side note; while models now show a somewhat cooler solution in the short term, I am still very skeptical of how long the cold will stick around. NAO and AO will still be neutral to positive with the PNA going negative around 1/10/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 got a pic for the JMA? Congrats J-action-ville FL, maybe CHS weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 By the way Euro is out to 180 and the coastal development is close but nothing really makes it onshore. exactly where we want it down here this far out, itll trend west, they almost always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 But it's still a form of liquid. LOL Spoken like the Weenie of the Year!! I assume in your world molten lead would be a solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 18z GFS is a little colder with the initial surge of cold air compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS is going to be a good one I think with the second s/w dropping down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS is going to be a good one I think with the second s/w dropping down.... Yeah, it looks a tick southwest of the 12z run, but don't know if it's going to get to neutral tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS is going to be a good one I think with the second s/w dropping down.... Yes, looks better so far. Weak low in Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Not bad overall, but a bit too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Wow, the s/w dives from the Pac NW/Canada all the way to Miami. the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah, it looks a tick southwest of the 12z run, but don't know if it's going to get to neutral tilt It looked like it was going to be good for a while there. We started to get some gulf moisture and it even popped a slp in the gulf for a frame or two. The trough never did get a neg tilt, it's almost like the trough just moved due east and the temps retreated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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