40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Phil and I were just discussing this over in the Pattern Change thread... We don't think the Jan 3 system is totally a loss just yet. There is still just enough meridional surging to the flow (tied into a +PNA spike that is well advertised and verifying as we speak), that if a stronger actual S/W gets ejected out of the Pacific than is currently modeled, we could see a sharper, faster wave break heading into the OV. That would change the sensible weather in the upper MA/NE regions upon exit, in a bit of a hurry. It may not have the look overall of those previous Euro errors, but it certainly would be a pleasant surprise. Looks great at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Phil and I were just discussing this over in the Pattern Change thread... We don't think the Jan 3 system is totally a loss just yet. There is still just enough meridional surging to the flow (tied into a +PNA spike that is well advertised and verifying as we speak), that if a stronger actual S/W gets ejected out of the Pacific than is currently modeled, we could see a sharper, faster wave break heading into the OV. That would change the sensible weather in the upper MA/NE regions upon exit, in a bit of a hurry. It may not have the look overall of those previous Euro errors, but it certainly would be a pleasant surprise. It's all going to boil down to the +PNA spike and where the ridge axis ends up. I'm more worried about a whiff at this point than anything cutting west of us. As it stands we are going to be in a cold regime after this weekends system blows through and the sensible weather will feel like winter for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks great at H5. Lol, this GFS run, which I just had the miss-pleasure of searing my eyeballs over, makes me want quietly turn off my PC, amble on down to the local police department, and punch the nearest cop dead in the face... I can see why these winter cats around here sounding off like a hot august night. This run whiplashes the NE U.S. between -20 and +20F swings of gradient, and producing nothing, for 384 hours. That's nothing shy of ...incredible. That's worse than deregulation on Wall Street allow 10 years of corruption leading to a economic meltdown in 2008. haha, I suspect if that'll change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It's all going to boil down to the +PNA spike and where the ridge axis ends up. I'm more worried about a whiff at this point than anything cutting west of us. As it stands we are going to be in a cold regime after this weekends system blows through and the sensible weather will feel like winter for once. I think it's winter like right now... 27F in full sun over bare ground is winter air mass. It was 25F with 40mph wind gust as midnight in Ayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks great at H5. They all do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All long range guidance is bone dry, trough axis is atrocious and western ridge is not a classic in my humble opinion. That puts us towards mid Jan, with 6 weeks of winter left and climo on the way up. Reality sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 just on the edge of model la-la land but the gfs ens mean does have LP developing off the carolinas and passing SE of the BM late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All long range guidance is bone dry, trough axis is atrocious and western ridge is not a classic in my humble opinion. That puts us towards mid Jan, with 6 weeks of winter left and climo on the way up. Reality sucks. It doesn't take long given the right pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It doesn't take long given the right pattern. Exactly, in 6 weeks last winter I got 70 inches of snow, had a 3 ft snowpack, and had 55+ days of snowpack, unheard of. Anything can happen, I am just talking about what has occured and what looks to occur during the next 10-14 days that is all. None of us have a clue what the future holds, NONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 just on the edge of model la-la land but the gfs ens mean does have LP developing off the carolinas and passing SE of the BM late next week. Kind of ironic, but this would be a setup where we'd want the help of the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Exactly, in 6 weeks last winter I got 70 inches of snow, had a 3 ft snowpack, and had 55+ days of snowpack, unheard of. Anything can happen, I am just talking about what has occured and what looks to occur during the next 10-14 days that is all. None of us have a clue what the future holds, NONE I wouldn't say that....defintiely tough, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I wouldn't say that....defintiely tough, though. Read from the best, in the main forum all over the MET world, people are waffling the last week on the rest of winter as if they were crushing a smothered and covered at waffle house. tough forecasting ahead anything beyond day 7, pak ak better blocking bleak, atlantic major suck fest. take it 5 days at a time, those next 5 are snowless, then we move on to another 5 yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Feb 99 en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 All long range guidance is bone dry, trough axis is atrocious and western ridge is not a classic in my humble opinion. That puts us towards mid Jan, with 6 weeks of winter left and climo on the way up. Reality sucks. Yup. Winter is over.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 even MOS seeing the cold nicely next week. has ORH staying in the 10s on Tuesday...and middle 20s here IMBY. impressive for day 5+. it runs 3 straight below normal which would be something special this winter. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Feb 99 en route 12z GGEM has a late-blooming Miller B for net Thur/Fri. Clips eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yup. Winter is over.lol Did I say that goldilocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Did I say that goldilocks? Just about. You'll beat Messenger to the increasing sun angle posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yup. Winter is over.lol How can it be over when it hasn't even started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just about. You'll beat Messenger to the increasing sun angle posts. Then your reading comprehension skills really ****ing suck. I said up till now, and what the models show over the next ten days is dry, and that leaves us 6 weeks of winter, unless you have re`written the calendar. I am sure you do not look at the posts like GInx made from BOX regarding how dire this winter has been up until now, but who cares. Enjoy the rain this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Well you got Carolinas wx this winter. All long range guidance is bone dry, trough axis is atrocious and western ridge is not a classic in my humble opinion. That puts us towards mid Jan, with 6 weeks of winter left and climo on the way up. Reality sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Then your reading comprehension skills really ****ing suck. I said up till now, and what the models show over the next ten days is dry, and that leaves us 6 weeks of winter, unless you have re`written the calendar. I am sure you do not look at the posts like GInx made from BOX regarding how dire this winter has been up until now, but who cares. Enjoy the rain this weekend! pattern has beaten you down. i think you need a time out. maybe take a break from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Read from the best, in the main forum all over the MET world, people are waffling the last week on the rest of winter as if they were crushing a smothered and covered at waffle house. tough forecasting ahead anything beyond day 7, pak ak better blocking bleak, atlantic major suck fest. take it 5 days at a time, those next 5 are snowless, then we move on to another 5 yet again. Long range skill is very low, but not zero. You need a break, dude....so aggressive and defensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 pattern has beaten you down. i think you need a time out. maybe take a break from the board. LOL the truth hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 LOL the truth hurts You should take a break from the board, Your post are becoming unreadable...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 You should take a break from the board, Your post are becoming unreadable...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Toss that out again, and you're gonna have to toss yourself an TO, Bobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Post that again, and you're gonna have to toss yourself an OT, Bobby. You're right. I should probably leave the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Then your reading comprehension skills really ****ing suck. I said up till now, and what the models show over the next ten days is dry, and that leaves us 6 weeks of winter, unless you have re`written the calendar. I am sure you do not look at the posts like GInx made from BOX regarding how dire this winter has been up until now, but who cares. Enjoy the rain this weekend! Can I put this in the meltdown thread? Bright blue skies and cold. Putting the ice down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You're right. I should probably leave the board. LOL You know I couldn't care less....you seem to coming into your own as a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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