Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ensembles have the monster ridge out west...they don't carve the trough as deep in the east so we don't see that ridiculous low...but the isobars hang back in an anafrontal manner on the mean so it does suggest that some members are probably forming something. The huge ridge is probably what you'd want to focus on for now for the Jan 3-4 storm...and then worry about the trough/vortmax specifics as we get a couple days closer. Hugely agreed - Particularly for an ensemble mean that takes into account all scenarios, out to lunch or not, the smoothed mean is almost always less extreme compared to a any particular member in the suite. Btw, the 00z mean compared to the 00z operational, that differential is about identical to the 12z differences fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just something to keep in the back of our heads. NWS BOX is supposed to have their radar site down starting the 4th of January for the upgrade to dual-polarization. Murphey's law, You know there will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Murphey's law, You know there will be LOL, TDWR and local TV station radar FTW I guess. Just like on PD II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, DT really weenied out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, DT really weenied out. Love his Euro snowfall map he posted on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, DT really weenied out. I'll take 12-24" lol... already posting maps on fecebook. Big cojones on that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Love his Euro snowfall map he posted on FB. I know it's not a forecast, but surprised he spent time to draw the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Deep and long.way in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, DT really weenied out. lol, 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know it's not a forecast, but surprised he spent time to draw the map. that's how awful this pattern is. folks with 30 yrs in the business drawing up snowfall maps 8-yr-old style on day 8 model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see what he is saying though. No one should be buying that ...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that's how awful this pattern is. folks with 30 yrs in the business drawing up snowfall maps 8-yr-old style on day 8 model output Yeah, that deserves a Keyshawn Johnson "C'mon Man!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know it's not a forecast, but surprised he spent time to draw the map. And he wonders why he attracts the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I want to see a NESIS scale estimate from the 12z Euro. DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Deep and long.way in there Yes folks..I hacked into Dick Tolleris's computer to draw this.. See the weenie shaped purple outline. That was me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Now you will get people running around saying we will get 2' of snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Now you will get people running around saying we will get 2' of snow next week If we put it all together in one pile, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Almost as bad as one of Sam;s ORH hills "enhanced" weenies hey, it's unavoidable with the geography of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Eh, at least he said it's not a forecast - Hey, what the heck is this "Warning status" under my name? you know better than that though! doesn't matter how many times you say that...they are now stocking up on milk and bread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If we put it all together in one pile, maybe Classic from Dendrite was a picture of him holding a ruler in like a 4" pyramid of snow after a dusting I think it was during the 2009-10 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If we put it all together in one pile, maybe Potential does not stack well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Potential does not stack well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Potential does not stack well All the potential that fell last December (pre-Boxing Day) still hasn't melted here. 12-24" of more potential on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Must be at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 you know better than that though! doesn't matter how many times you say that...they are now stocking up on milk and bread Yeah that's the thing, It's not that potential storm...I just wouldn't draw a map like that even if it were a lock..simply because it's 8 days out. But, it drives traffic to the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah that's the thing, It's not that potential storm...I just wouldn't draw a map like that even if it were a lock..simply because it's 8 days out. But, it drives traffic to the site. Exactly..That is how you sell. JB has mastered it Hype sells. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Exactly..That is how you sell. JB has mastered it Hype sells. Period I'd rather have more credibility in the field, but whatever floats your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol...guys enough with the OT crap about warnings. No one can see each others' warning bars so in the end none of it is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just something to keep in the back of our heads. NWS BOX is supposed to have their radar site down starting the 4th of January for the upgrade to dual-polarization. Thankfully, my local radar is ENX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'd rather have more credibility in the field, but whatever floats your boat. You learn very early in sales..people buy on emotions.. think about most purchases in your life..many if not most of them are filled with emotion..in wx big storms and hype sells..because it plays on peoples emotions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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