Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January 3-5 Timeframe - Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 352
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like we'll get 2 fropa's. The first one ~6z Monday will knock us back down to seasonably cool levels and then about 24hrs later the front ushering in the well below normal temps moves through. There's hints of a 3rd one on the Euro that stays north of the US border that keeps the uber brutal arctic air up there.

thank god i'm moving S of the border next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And upslope... 1" or greater recorded 5 of the last 7 days up here and a potentially large event looms early next week for the usual suspects.  Only 3 hours on the interstate from Boston...

<ducking and running>

Co workers heading up next week on my advice and your endless self promotion LOL, just kidding but I did send them your way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, I didn't even realize that the WOTY voting was going on! Thanks for voting for me in the last round!

I just read the meltdown and dictionary posts again.. man I was hammered

It's a bit harder to get WOTY being 5/dayed lol.. I should get more points for that. I mean how is it fair that Kevin gets to post 50 weenie posts a day when I get to post only 5?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Using http://www.meteo.psu...2z/hgtcomp.html ...ever since the monster phantom storm from 2 days ago, the D10-8 Euro mean has been slowly churning the ice-pick into the sides of winter weather enthusiasts, by incrementally dismantling the western ridge upon each successive run/mean. Overnight the GEFs mean at both CDC/CPC insist for +PNA to succeed. Now, the Euro mean even hints at a -PNA! Look at the height anomalies growing NE of Hawaii. Every 12 hours, the new run has been getting more and more -PNA like in the means from the Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

99% of the forum: "cold without snow blows"

Pete: "What are you doom and gloomers talking about? It's snowing RIGHT NOW"

Working out in the cold like today is good for your health. I'll take cold and dry over hot and humid anytime. The frequent bouts of -sn are enough to inoculate me against the scurge of pessimism.

Yeah a coating on otherwise bare ground at 2k in the Berkshires near New Years is rockin'.

I'll take the veneer coat of white over nothing at all every time. I'm enjoying every little scrap Old Man Winter throws out, cold, light snow, whatever. It's Winter and that's better than summer. Sure beats whining and crying and believing it will never snow again. Ever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol. A winter storm isn't even an option anymore. The set-up on the Euro, and sort of even on the GFS a few days ago had the lead s/w continuing eastward toward 50/50, so we have brief pseudo-blocking. Now, model guidance have shifted back to a straight +NAO regime with the lead s/w breaking northward over North Atlantic ridging

Sooo ... IF this were to come west somehow, it would be a cutter. Pretty much off-shore or rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hm, interesting - should that 84 hour NAM solution verify, that's gonna be kinda tight off the upper MA/NE coasts when extrapolating...

Details in the NAM beyond ...oh say, 10 minutes in that model are sometimes fleeting to say the least. That said, the 81 hour plots a vorticity maximum over ORD, with the wind barbs oriented SE at 500mb. At 84 hours, the v-max has intensified by a category or two, but is SSE of ORD by some 100 naut miles or so, implying gaining westerly longitude with respect to the L/W axis. In other words, the trough is digging SW relative to the axis of the L/W.

Another thing that is interesting there is that the western N/A ridge has not moved E as this L/W matures - that intrinsically means the entire wave length across N/A is being stretched by the model. This seems true in all models, regardless of their native popularity or proven accuracies et al.

I know it comes across as trying to engineer an interesting solution but objectively, really, that could be corrected back west. I believe the Euro did bump the axis west by a few longitudes.

ah, probably doesn't mean much..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z euro is teasing a little

They are all a little teasing for something to possibly happen tomorrow night. It almost appears as if they try to get a Miller B going(it does happen, just a little too late for us). As the system cuts to our NW a new center of low pressure begins to take shape just to the south of the Cape......a little too late for anything too exciting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...