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January 3-5 Timeframe - Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone

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Read from the best, in the main forum all over the MET world, people are waffling the last week on the rest of winter as if they were crushing a smothered and covered at waffle house. tough forecasting ahead anything beyond day 7, pak ak better blocking bleak, atlantic major suck fest.

take it 5 days at a time, those next 5 are snowless, then we move on to another 5 yet again.

What in the hell is that?

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Several of the GFS ensembles do have some sort of Miller B-esque system next week like the Canadian....which in conjunction with the Euro ensemble signal for this at least makes it something mildly possible. We'll certainly have the cold around this time.

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This is why we treasure snowy winters. I'm not saying we won't see a flake but these winters happen. Meltdowns are a waste, just deal with it as they can and will happen.

Additionally...the last time I checked it wasn't event Jan 1st yet, which yet leaves 2 months proper, and 3rd (march)... to go

In 1956 (or '57...) there was a 50+ " March, and Harv told me it was everything one could hope for when that happened.

I think the snow lust clouds judgments and draws folks to poorer conclusions prematurely due to frustrations.

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Additionally...the last time I checked it wasn't event Jan 1st yet, which yet leaves 2 months proper, and 3rd (march)... to go

I 1956 (or '57...) there was a 50+ " March, and Harv told me it was everything one could hope for when that happened.

I think the snow lust clouds judgments and draws folks to poorer conclusions prematurely due to frustrations.

you have a man crush on harvey leonard. i think he makes your PNA rise.

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The 12z Euro seems to be hinting again at the isentropic banding....

I 've analyzed the first few frames of this run. What actually happens is that it initializes with a weak vorticity field and associated surface low over Wisconsin... This impulse then moves up through Ontario and New England and damps, but still has enough to excite some lift over the 850mb 0C line, 24 to 36 hours out. Both the 700 and 850mb level RH fields are at or exceed 70%, which is a fair enough indicator for saturability. Yes...there could be some intermittent light snow in a WNW-ESE band amid that axis as Will and I discussed yesterday.

Meanwhile, new impulse streaks into the Plains from the Pac NW, and creates a new low in eastern IA by 24 hours out... This than moves up into NYS and bullies through the high in Ontario as previously discussed.

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i often use my autographed kocin book as way to entice the ladies. nothing works better than breaking out volume II while explaining the NESIS scale.

"Yesterday morning, on the heels of brunch, Harv and I decided to embark upon an intimate interlude on a whim....the nexus of our copulation occupying the better part of groundhog day".

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He loves to drop little hints about how he's buddy, buddy with good 'ole "Harv"....like women we'll rush to his door step and weenies will want his autograph. :lol:

Whatever - the purpose was to state that there were witnesses to an awesome March.

Sorry about the name drop - that wasn't the intent.

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Whatever - the purpose was to state that there were witnesses to an awesome March.

Sorry about the name drop - that wasn't the intent.

John, Harvey and I have discussed March of 1956 as we grew up in the same region at the same time, share the snow love and similar background in other ways. It was absolutely awesome and continued into early April that year. I recall a drift against a house in Teaneck, NJ up to it's roof.

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Looks like we'll get 2 fropa's. The first one ~6z Monday will knock us back down to seasonably cool levels and then about 24hrs later the front ushering in the well below normal temps moves through. There's hints of a 3rd one on the Euro that stays north of the US border that keeps the uber brutal arctic air up there.

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Looks like we'll get 2 fropa's. The first one ~6z Monday will knock us back down to seasonably cool levels and then about 24hrs later the front ushering in the well below normal temps moves through. There's hints of a 3rd one on the Euro that stays north of the US border that keeps the uber brutal arctic air up there.

Yeah anything to lessen hope is the better bet ...

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