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At Look At Detroit's Winters With Below Average December Snowfall Totals

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Unless today's event miraculously overachieves or those upcoming clipper move in before New Years, Detroit will likely end up below average for the month of December. So I decided to see what was the outcome of Winter's seasons that featured a below average December in terms of snowfall. It's not particularly pleasant to say the least. Averaging out all the number leads to a slightly below average snowfall season when it's all said and done (35.8"). 19 of the 66 seasons were average. Only 5 of the 66 seasons (highlighted in red) with below average Decembers gave way to above average seasons, and two were WELL above average, two were above average and three were slightly above average, all of which except two slight above average seasons were pre-1920. That means 42 out of the 66 seasons ended up below average.

Two things that stood out were the low averages for the 1921-1970 period and how most of the winters that only had average/below average Decembers in the 1970s turned out relatively crappy. So the December we're experiencing right now is nowhere near unprecedented, but it is quite a shock from what we've been used to the last 30 years (excluding the 1990s).

1881-1910 Average = 9.4" (20)

1880-1881 = 93.6" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1881-1882 = 13.2" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1882-1883 = 49.6" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1887-1888 = 38.4" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1888-1889 = 23.2" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1889-1990 = 15.8" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1891-1892 = 39.4" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1892-1893 = 59.9" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1894-1895 = 43.6" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1896-1897 = 34.7" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1899-1900 = 69.1" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1900-1901 = 41.7" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1904-1905 = 37.4" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1905-1906 = 29.4" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1906-1907 = 31" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1908-1909 = 41.3" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1911-1912 = 58" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1912-1913 = 33.3" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1913-1914 = 42.3" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1918-1919 = 15.2" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1891-1920 Average = 9.6" (5)

1920-1921 = 36.1" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1923-1924 = 37.7" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1924-1925 = 30" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1927-1928 = 30.3" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1928-1929 = 38.9" Total Seasonal Snowfall

1901-1930 Average = 9.6" (7)

1931-1932 = 26.2" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1932-1933 = 25.9" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1933-1934 = 42.6" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1936-1937 = 12.9" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1937-1938 = 22.6" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1938-1939 = 42.8" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1939-1940 = 32.2" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1911-1940 Average = 8.4" (7)

1940-1941 = 26.8" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1941-1942 = 23.4" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1943-1944 = 22.8" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1945-1946 = 22" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1946-1947 = 30" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1948-1949 = 13.7" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1949-1950 = 42.8" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1921-1950 Average = 7.4" (5)

1952-1953 = 16.6" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1953-1954 = 40" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1955-1956 = 45.2" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1956-1957 = 45.6" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1957-1958 = 18" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1931-1960 Average = 6.2" (5)

1960-1961 = 18" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1961-1962 = 28.1" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1965-1966 = 15.4" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1967-1968 = 30.6" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1968-1969 = 17.1" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1941-1970 Average = 7" (2)

1971-1972 = 29" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1979-1980 = 26.9" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1951-1980 Average = 8.4" (3)

1982-1983 = 20" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1987-1988 = 45.1" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1988-1989 = 25.1" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1961-1990 Average = 10.6" (8)

1991-1992 = 43.5" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1992-1993 = 52.2" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1993-1994 = 45.8" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1995-1996 = 23.9" Seasonal Snowfall Total (February data is missing, but likely below average)

1996-1997 = data missing, but probably average to below averge

1997-1998 = 23.3" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1998-1999 = 49.5" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1999-2000 = 23.7" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1971-2000 Average = 11.1" (4)

2001-2002 = 33.7" Seasonal Snowfall Total

2003-2004 = 24.1" Seasonal Snowfall Total

2006-2007 = 30.3" Seasonal Snowfall Total

2009-2010 = 43.7" Seasonal Snowfall Total

1981-2010 Average = 10.3"

Average = 35.8" Seasonal Total

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Feb 1996 had 3.6" so yes, below normal.

Nice work, but I tried it a different way. 1880-2010 December avg 8.9", season average 40.8". For consistency sake, and not the wildly oscillating 30-yr norms (which didnt officially start until I think 1931-60)....I did it that way to see the results. 72 seasons had below 8.9" of snowfall, and of those 23 had above normal seasonal snowfall. So by picking a constant, its more along the lines of a 1 in 3 shot of a below normal December still yielding a 40"+ winter.

1880-81: 93.6"

1881-82: 13.2"

1882-83: 49.6"

1887-88: 38.4"

1888-89: 23.2"

1889-90: 15.8"

1891-92: 39.4"

1892-93: 59.9"

1894-95: 43.6"

1896-97: 34.7"

1899-00: 69.1"

1900-01: 41.7"

1904-05: 37.4"

1905-06: 29.4"

1906-07: 31.0"

1908-09: 41.3"

1911-12: 58.0"

1912-13: 33.1"

1913-14: 42.3"

1918-19: 15.2"

1920-21: 36.1"

1923-24: 37.7"

1924-25: 30.0"

1927-28: 30.3"

1928-29: 38.9"

1931-32: 26.2"

1932-33: 25.8"

1933-34: 42.6"

1936-37: 12.9"

1937-38: 22.6"

1938-39: 42.8"

1939-40: 32.2"

1940-41: 26.8"

1941-42: 23.4"

1943-44: 22.8"

1945-46: 22.0"

1946-47: 30.0"

1948-49: 13.7"

1949-50: 42.8"

1950-51: 42.2"

1952-53: 16.6"

1953-54: 40.0"

1954-55: 27.3"

1955-56: 45.2"

1956-57: 45.6"

1957-58: 18.0"

1958-59: 37.2"

1959-60: 47.7"

1960-61: 18.0"

1961-62: 28.1"

1965-66: 15.4"

1967-68: 30.6"

1968-69: 17.1"

1971-72: 29.0"

1978-79: 35.6"

1979-80: 26.9"

1982-83: 20.0"

1984-85: 55.1"

1986-87: 49.7"

1988-89: 25.1"

1991-92: 43.5"

1992-93: 52.2"

1993-94: 45.8"

1995-96: 27.6"

1996-97: M (est 40")

1997-98: 23.4"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2001-02: 33.7"

2003-04: 24.1"

2006-07: 30.3"

2009-10: 43.7"

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Feb 1996 had 3.6" so yes, below normal.

Nice work, but I tried it a different way. 1880-2010 December avg 8.9", season average 40.8". For consistency sake, and not the wildly oscillating 30-yr norms (which didnt officially start until I think 1931-60)....I did it that way to see the results. 72 seasons had below 8.9" of snowfall, and of those 23 had above normal seasonal snowfall. So by picking a constant, its more along the lines of a 1 in 3 shot of a below normal December still yielding a 40"+ winter.

Maybe it is me but after looking at a number of sites out this way i suspect there was more then 40" there in 96-97. One time frame that does seem suspect is between Jan 9th and Jan 18th. Per a few sites there was a big event ( 9-10th/10-11th.. )with places like Hastings/Charlotte over to Jackson showing 15-22" with a supposed sharp cut off to the north. Here it shows about a foot. Then there was another 6-8" event on the 15-16...

1997-01-06 9999 17.0 0.05 0.5 0.005
1997-01-07 23.0 10.0 0.02 0.2 1
1997-01-08 27.0 6.0 0.005 0.005 1
1997-01-09 24.0 20.0 0.02 3.7 1
1997-01-10 25.0 6.0 0.22 5.1 7
1997-01-11 13.0 1.0 0.18 6.2 11
1997-01-12 11.0 1.0 0.04 0.005 12
1997-01-13 13.0 1.0 0.005 0.005 12
1997-01-14 22.0 8.0 0.01 0.005 10
1997-01-15 34.0 12.0 0.42 4.2 10
1997-01-16 25.0 -1.0 0.17 2.2 13
1997-01-17 4.0 -7.0 0.02 0.4 13
1997-01-18 11.0 -7.0 0.005 0.2 14
1997-01-19 17.0 -10.0 0.005 0.005 14
1997-01-20 35.0 14.0 0.005 0.005 13
1997-01-21 46.0 14.0 0.005 0 12
1997-01-22 45.0 30.0 0.17 0.005 2
1997-01-23 30.0 19.0 0.02 0.6 0.005
1997-01-24 32.0 18.0 0.005 0.3 1
1997-01-25 33.0 12.0 0.02 4.7 1
1997-01-26 16.0 5.0 0.16 1.5 5
1997-01-27 30.0 17.0 0.19 2.4 7
1997-01-28 25.0 6.0 0.03 1.5 9

ugh..The code is messed up i guess. anyways it is about 34" or so just for that time frame.

Mind you that is just for January alone and well Jackson is not THAT far from there.

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jctoad

jctoad

Posted
Posted

I was having a conversation the other day about setting the record for most precipitation in a year for Detroit. It made me think that despite the all time record, it seemed like the snowfall for 2011 was kind of small. I believe that 44" is the average. Does anyone know what the total snow was in Detroit from Jan. though Dec. 2011? I searched around but couldn't find the answer.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

I was having a conversation the other day about setting the record for most precipitation in a year for Detroit. It made me think that despite the all time record, it seemed like the snowfall for 2011 was kind of small. I believe that 44" is the average. Does anyone know what the total snow was in Detroit from Jan. though Dec. 2011? I searched around but couldn't find the answer.

I'm going on limb here but I'm sure Powerball or MISNowfreak will correct this.

65.5"

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jctoad

jctoad

Posted
Posted

65.5" Wow. Guess I didn't notice how much it was last winter because I wasn't out shoveling it or driving around that much. Still a far cry from the record total 1880-81: 93.6" which is seasonal as opposed to calendar year, but it's close enough to make the point. Thanks for the fast reply. This forum looks pretty amazing. I don't know why I've never found it before.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

65.5" Wow. Guess I didn't notice how much it was last winter because I wasn't out shoveling it or driving around that much. Still a far cry from the record total 1880-81: 93.6" which is seasonal as opposed to calendar year, but it's close enough to make the point. Thanks for the fast reply. This forum looks pretty amazing. I don't know why I've never found it before.

Welcome to the board! The DTX nws site (www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx) is a great source for finding Detroits climate data.

Yeah, you must have a short memory lol. Last winter was awesome. Total snowfall was 69.1" which tied with 1899-00 for 5th snowiest winter on record at Detroit. Only 1880-01 (93.6), 1925-26 (78.0), 1981-82 (74.0), and 2007-08 (71.7) had more snow than last winter.

The total calendar year snowfall for 2011 was 66.1", which ranks as the 8th snowiest calendar year for Detroit, so it certainly wasnt small! The highlight of the year would be February when 31.7" of snow fell, the 2nd snowiest Feb and 3rd snowiest month on record.

http://www.crh.noaa....=77240&source=0

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Posted

Why because of optimism or are my averages off? The last sub 20 inch winter was 1969? What was the longest stretch before that?

You know what, theres nothing more to discuss. Every year, despite being in good times for winterlovers, I see tons of pessimism and unrealistically negative predictions for that winter that never end up coming true, so its no surprise its way worse in bad times. Meanwhile I always try to stay optimistic but also realistic. And realistic imo is that its outrageous to make calls like this in early Jan with a pattern change looming and 3+ months of measurable snow potential. But we will never convince each other, so the bottom line...you have made your predictions (no measurable snow the rest of January ("it may very well stay that way til feb") and a sub-20" winter total at DTW) and I have made mine (worst case scenario: we still do not make the top 10 snowless winters, best case scenario: we finish with above normal snowfall). Really no more needs to be said on this topic until late April.

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